Trading Signals: XLU Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 3, 2006

Trading Signals: XLU Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Utilities sector ETF)
XLU latest price $34.0600 (-0.5%) ($33.9600 - $34.2900) on Thu. Aug. 3, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.84% (three month average)
RSI   79
Latest Price   $34.0600(-0.5%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLU advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLU advances 1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLU advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLP(71%)    SPY(66%)    XLK(56%)    EEM(55%)    VWO(55%)
Factors Impacting XLU price   XLU will decline at least -0.42% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-13%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    REMX(2%)    GLD(11%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.42% (StdDev 0.84%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $34.08(-0.06%)
10 Day Moving Average   $33.94(0.35%)
20 Day Moving Average   $33.42(1.92%)
To recent high   -0.6%
To recent low   10.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLU price fluctuates within 1.89% (three month std-dev: 0.84%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060903

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_3_2006	31.9	33.42	33.94	34.08			34.06(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	32	-10000	4	115	5.45	60%	0.06	69.3	0.84%	0	1	79	0
2	Aug_2_2006	31.88	33.34	33.88	34.02			34.23(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	34	-10000	3	125	6.46	62%	0.06	69.8	0.84%	0	1.4	83	0
3	Aug_1_2006	31.86	33.25	33.79	33.98			34.26(1.24%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	37	-10000	5	131	4.83	60%	0.09	78.1	0.86%	0	1.7	79	0
4	Jul_31_2006	31.83	33.16	33.64	33.91			33.84(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	32	-10000	1	123	1.63	58%	0.06	87.8	0.85%	0	1.2	70	0
5	Jul_28_2006	31.81	33.09	33.54	33.89			33.99(0.68%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	37	-10000	7	126	4.17	58%	0.06	92	0.86%	0	1.6	77	0

6	Jul_27_2006	31.79	32.99	33.41	33.79			33.76(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	35	-10000	6	120	4.87	60%	0.09	95.3	0.86%	0	1.4	77	0
7	Jul_26_2006	31.76	32.9	33.3	33.71			34.03(0.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	38	-10000	10	121	3.38	58%	0.06	88.3	0.87%	0	1.9	87	0
8	Jul_25_2006	31.74	32.78	33.17	33.56			33.91(0.41%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	40	-10000	15	114	1.84	56%	0.06	82.5	0.88%	0	1.9	79	0
9	Jul_24_2006	31.72	32.67	33.07	33.34			33.77(0.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	33	-10000	13	93	3.52	57%	0.06	78	0.9%	0	2	70	0
10	Jul_21_2006	31.7	32.56	32.96	33.14			33.46(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	28	-10000	11	78	4.24	56%	0.03	66.3	0.9%	0	1.7	72	0

11	Jul_20_2006	31.69	32.47	32.86	32.98			33.38(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	24	-10000	10	67	2.26	56%	0.03	53.1	0.9%	0	1.8	73	0
12	Jul_19_2006	31.68	32.38	32.75	32.83			33.3(1.52%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	21	-10000	7	61	3.35	56%	0	46.4	0.9%	0	1.9	77	0
13	Jul_18_2006	31.68	32.3	32.66	32.73			32.8(0.15%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	14	-10000	-2	61	4.62	56%	0	40.1	0.89%	0	1.1	74	0
14	Jul_17_2006	31.68	32.25	32.64	32.76			32.75(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	21	-10000	1	81	2.9	56%	0.03	33.6	0.91%	0	1.1	70	0
15	Jul_14_2006	31.67	32.21	32.6	32.75			32.66(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	25	-10000	2	94	5.64	56%	0	30.7	0.91%	0	1	70	0

16	Jul_13_2006	31.67	32.2	32.55	32.72			32.66(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	30	-10000	5	104	6.69	56%	0	32.1	0.92%	0	1.1	71	0
17	Jul_12_2006	31.67	32.16	32.47	32.64			32.78(-0.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	-10000	5	98	3.84	56%	0	26	0.92%	0	1.5	70	0
18	Jul_11_2006	31.67	32.12	32.36	32.57			32.94(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	26	-10000	4	90	4.1	54%	0.06	22.3	0.92%	0	2.1	73	0
19	Jul_10_2006	31.65	32.1	32.24	32.51			32.69(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	-10000	5	88	5.48	54%	0	25	0.93%	0	1.6	72	0
20	Jul_7_2006	31.65	32.08	32.14	32.43			32.51(0.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	22	-10000	5	72	1.42	52%	0.03	18.9	0.93%	0	1.3	56	0

21	Jul_6_2006	31.64	32.06	32.05	32.36			32.26(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	18	-10000	7	52	1.68	50%	0	14.6	0.94%	0	0.6	45	0
22	Jul_5_2006	31.64	32.05	31.99	32.26			32.43(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	17	-10000	10	39	2.06	51%	0.03	9.7	0.95%	0	1.2	58	0
23	Jul_3_2006	31.63	32.04	31.92	32.11			32.65(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	12	-10000	11	16	0.89	53%	0.03	9.3	0.96%	0	2	56	0
24	Jun_30_2006	31.62	32.01	31.82	31.94			32.29(0.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	2	-10000	9	-20	3.58	49%	0	2.1	0.95%	0	0.9	43	0
25	Jun_29_2006	31.62	32.02	31.79	31.81			32.17(1.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-5	-10000	7	-41	2.31	49%		8.5	0.95%	0	0.5	43	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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