Trading Signals: XLU Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Sep. 30, 2004

Trading Signals: XLU Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Utilities sector ETF)
XLU latest price $25.0500 (0.2%) ($24.9100 - $25.1300) on Thu. Sep. 30, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.6% (three month average)
RSI   41
Latest Price   $25.0500(0.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLU advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLU declines -0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLU advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLP(70%)    SPY(66%)    EEM(55%)    XLK(55%)    IWM(54%)
Factors Impacting XLU price   XLU will decline at least -0.3% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-12%)    SHY(-6%)    TIP(1%)    REMX(2%)    LQD(23%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.3% (StdDev 0.6%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

Resistance Level   $25.09
5 Day Moving Average   $24.97(0.32%)
10 Day Moving Average   $25.02(0.12%)
20 Day Moving Average   $25.09(-0.16%)
To recent high   -1.1%
To recent low   6.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLU price fluctuates within 0.52% (three month std-dev: 0.6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20041030

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_30_2004	24.08		25.02	24.97			25.05(0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-4	-10000	5	-29	1.66	57%	0.12	3.8	0.6%	0	-0.3	41	0
2	Sep_29_2004	24.05	25.09	25.02	24.93			25(-0.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-13	-10000	-3	-41	0.55	57%	0.12	1.9	0.6%	0	-0.7	42	0
3	Sep_28_2004	24.02	25.1	25.02	24.95			25.05(0.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-13	-10000	-4	-40	0.59	57%	0.13	21.2	0.6%	0	-0.4	48	0
4	Sep_27_2004	23.99	25.1	25.04	24.98			24.89(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-15	-10000	-5	-45	0.95	55%	0.08	32.1	0.6%	0	-1.4	35	0
5	Sep_24_2004	23.97	25.1	25.06	25.02			24.86(0.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-17	-10000	-8	-43	1.14	55%	0.04	40	0.61%	0	-1.5	42	0

6	Sep_23_2004	23.96	25.1	25.1	25.08			24.85(-1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-14	-10000	-9	-30	0.3	55%	0.08	56.7	0.61%	0	-1.6	40	0
7	Sep_22_2004	23.94	25.09	25.1	25.08			25.1(-0.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-1	-10000	0	-4	0.64	59%	0.04	73.3	0.6%	0	0.1	53	0
8	Sep_21_2004	23.93	25.07	25.14	25.15			25.21(0.56%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	3	-10000	5	-3	0.39	59%	0.08	69.1	0.6%	0	0.8	53	0
9	Sep_20_2004	23.91	25.04	25.15	25.15			25.07(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	1	-10000	0	3	0.25	59%	0.08	59.2	0.6%	0	0.2	57	0
10	Sep_17_2004	23.89	25.03	25.16	25.11			25.16(-0.24%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	2	-10000	-3	15	0.41	59%	0.08	61.3	0.6%	0	0.6	61	0

11	Sep_16_2004	23.87	25	25.17	25.13			25.22(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	10	-10000	1	37	1.12	59%	0.08	60.2	0.6%	0	1	63	0
12	Sep_15_2004	23.85	24.98	25.17	25.12			25.07(0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	11	-10000	-1	45	1.24	57%	0.04	63.6	0.6%	0	0.4	60	0
13	Sep_14_2004	23.84	24.95	25.15	25.13			25.02(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	9	-10000	-8	58	0.55	57%	0.08	65.2	0.6%	0	0.3	62	0
14	Sep_13_2004	23.82	24.93	25.14	25.19			25.06(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	18	-10000	-3	82	0.31	57%	0.04	73	0.61%	0	0.5	65	0
15	Sep_10_2004	23.81	24.9	25.12	25.19			25.26(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	23	-10000	0	92	0.52	60%	0.08	75	0.61%	0	1.4	69	0

16	Sep_9_2004	23.79	24.87	25.07	25.21			25.21(0.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	30	-10000	5	104	0.96	60%	0.08	81.9	0.61%	0	1.3	71	0
17	Sep_8_2004	23.77	24.84	25.04	25.21			25.1(-0.95%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	24	-10000	0	97	1.45	56%	0.08	84.2	0.62%	0	1	62	0
18	Sep_7_2004	23.75	24.8	25	25.17			25.34(0.72%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	36	-10000	12	109	0.54	60%	0.08	89.1	0.62%	0	2.2	76	0
19	Sep_3_2004	23.73	24.75	24.93	25.08			25.16(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	30	-10000	9	93	0.59	53%	0.08	79.2	0.61%	0	1.6	72	0
20	Sep_2_2004	23.71	24.71	24.88	25.01			25.25(0.92%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	30	-10000	11	86	0.43	53%	0.08	76.2	0.63%	0	2.2	79	0

21	Sep_1_2004	23.69	24.66	24.82	24.92			25.02(-0.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	21	-10000	5	70	0.74	49%	0.08	80.9	0.62%	0	1.6	69	0
22	Aug_31_2004	23.67	24.63	24.79	24.88			25.1(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	25	-10000	10	69	0.84	49%	0.04	89.9	0.62%	0	2.1	72	0
23	Aug_30_2004	23.66	24.58	24.73	24.8			24.86(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	18	-10000	5	56	0.54	45%	0.04	107.4	0.61%	0	1.4	70	0
24	Aug_27_2004	23.65	24.56	24.7	24.76			24.8(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	17	-10000	3	58	0.53	50%	0.04	114	0.61%	0	1.1	74	0
25	Aug_26_2004	23.64	24.52	24.67	24.74			24.81(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	19	-10000	5	59	0.36	50%		114.9	0.62%	0	1.3	70	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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