Trading Signals: XLU Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 5, 2004

Trading Signals: XLU Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Utilities sector ETF)
XLU latest price $24.1700 (-1.19%) ($24.1700 - $24.4700) on Thu. Aug. 5, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.82% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $24.1700(-1.19%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLU advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLU advances 0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLU advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLP(70%)    SPY(66%)    EEM(55%)    XLK(55%)    IWM(54%)
Factors Impacting XLU price   XLU will decline at least -0.41% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-12%)    SHY(-6%)    TIP(1%)    REMX(2%)    LQD(23%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.41% (StdDev 0.82%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $24.26(-0.37%)
10 Day Moving Average   $23.98(0.79%)
20 Day Moving Average   $23.92(1.05%)
To recent high   -1.2%
To recent low   8.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLU price fluctuates within 1.21% (three month std-dev: 0.82%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20040905

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_5_2004	23.57	23.92	23.98	24.26			24.17(-1.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	15	-10000	4	48	2.01	45%	0	55.4	0.82%	0	0.9	51	0
2	Aug_4_2004	23.57	23.89	23.93	24.22			24.46(0.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	21	-10000	14	40	0.61	48%	0	49.6	0.81%	0	2	61	0
3	Aug_3_2004	23.57	23.85	23.86	24.08			24.25(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	18	-10000	17	20	0.9	45%	0	42.2	0.81%	0	1.5	60	0
4	Aug_2_2004	23.57	23.82	23.85	23.92			24.3(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	16	-10000	17	11	1.11	45%	0.04	23.8	0.81%	0	1.9	65	0
5	Jul_30_2004	23.56	23.79	23.83	23.76			24.12(0.71%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.6	8	-10000	12	-3	0.8	45%	0	7.6	0.81%	0	1.5	61	0

6	Jul_29_2004	23.56	23.76	23.83	23.65			23.95(0.71%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	1	-10000	5	-12	1.47	42%	0	-15.1	0.81%	0	0.9	60	0
7	Jul_28_2004	23.56	23.75	23.83	23.6			23.78(1.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.9	-6	-10000	-2	-16	0.51	42%	-0.04	-22.7	0.83%	0	0.1	55	0
8	Jul_27_2004	23.57	23.74	23.82	23.62			23.47(-0.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-16	-10000	-16	-17	0.82	38%	-0.04	-20.5	0.81%	0	-1.3	44	0
9	Jul_26_2004	23.58	23.76	23.84	23.77			23.5(-0.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-10	-10000	-15	7	0.76	38%	-0.04	3.4	0.81%	0	-1.2	47	0
10	Jul_23_2004	23.59	23.77	23.86	23.91			23.56(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.8	1	-10000	-10	32	0.27	38%	-0.04	27.4	0.81%	0	-1.1	47	0

11	Jul_22_2004	23.6	23.79	23.86	24.01			23.7(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.6	10	-10000	-5	56	0.31	41%	0	50	0.81%	0	-0.5	59	0
12	Jul_21_2004	23.6	23.8	23.87	24.06			23.86(-1.57%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.1	18	-10000	2	64	0.45	43%	-0.04	65	0.82%	0	0.3	53	0
13	Jul_20_2004	23.61	23.78	23.85	24.04			24.24(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	29	-10000	14	72	0.48	44%	0	65.5	0.79%	0	2.3	66	0
14	Jul_19_2004	23.61	23.75	23.79	23.91			24.19(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	19	-10000	11	43	0.77	44%	0	73.1	0.81%	0	2.8	57	0
15	Jul_16_2004	23.61	23.72	23.74	23.8			24.08(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	13	-10000	9	24	0.45	44%	0	67.8	0.81%	0	2.6	58	0

16	Jul_15_2004	23.61	23.7	23.68	23.71			23.91(0.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.8	3	-10000	6	-6	0.4	44%	0	78.3	0.81%	0	1.9	49	0
17	Jul_14_2004	23.61	23.67	23.66	23.65			23.8(0.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.4	-4	-10000	1	-18	0.42	44%	0	67.4	0.81%	0	1.2	49	0
18	Jul_13_2004	23.61	23.65	23.65	23.64			23.59(-0.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-7	-10000	-2	-21	0.52	38%	0	51	0.8%	0	-0.5	50	0
19	Jul_12_2004	23.61	23.64	23.67	23.66			23.64(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-4	-10000	-1	-13	0.46	36%	0	39.7	0.83%	0	0	49	0
20	Jul_9_2004	23.61	23.63	23.68	23.67			23.59(-0.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	1	-10000	2	-4	0.94	36%	0	42.6	0.86%	0	-0.2	53	0

21	Jul_8_2004	23.61	23.61	23.71	23.65			23.64(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-2	-10000	-2	-3	0.87	36%	-0.04	29.4	0.86%	0	0.2	51	0
22	Jul_7_2004	23.62	23.6	23.72	23.67			23.73(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	4	-10000	1	11	0.62	34%	0	25.9	0.86%	0	0.7	58	0
23	Jul_6_2004	23.62	23.59	23.72	23.66			23.68(-0.17%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	1	-10000	-3	13	0.39	34%	0	24.7	0.87%	0	0.5	59	0
24	Jul_2_2004	23.62	23.58	23.71	23.66			23.72(1.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	8	-10000	0	33	0.46	34%	0	27.2	0.86%	0	0.7	64	0
25	Jul_1_2004	23.62	23.56	23.7	23.69			23.48(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	3	-10000	-8	34	0.3	31%		28.4	0.86%	0	-0.4	54	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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