Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 25, 2011

Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Consumer Staples sector ETF)
XLP latest price $29.9200 (-1.51%) ($29.8300 - $30.4400) on Thu. Aug. 25, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.2% (three month average)
RSI   50
Latest Price   $29.9200(-1.51%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLP advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLP advances 1.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLP advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(74%)    XLU(71%)    XLK(65%)    XLY(65%)    QQQ(60%)
Factors Impacting XLP price   XLP will decline at least -0.6% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-20%)    TIP(-3%)    SHY(-1%)    IGOV(3%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.6% (StdDev 1.2%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $29.95(-0.1%)
10 Day Moving Average   $29.93(-0.03%)
20 Day Moving Average   $29.83(0.3%)
To recent high   -7.4%
To recent low   5.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLP price fluctuates within 2.15% (three month std-dev: 1.2%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110925

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_25_2011	31.05	29.83	29.93	29.95			29.92(-1.51%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	19	-10000	3	68	13.77	42%	0	-47.4	1.2%	0	0.1	50	0
2	Aug_24_2011	31.05	29.88	29.86	29.9			30.38(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	17	-10000	2	60	12.64	43%	0	-51.5	1.19%	0	0.7	56	0
3	Aug_23_2011	31.05	29.9	29.66	29.87			30.25(2.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	8	-10000	2	27	12.72	43%	0	-51.8	1.19%	0	0.5	48	0
4	Aug_22_2011	31.05	29.95	29.58	29.83			29.64(0.3%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-0	-10000	-3	8	8.85	40%	0	-51.5	1.16%	0	-0.4	45	0
5	Aug_19_2011	31.05	30.03	29.5	29.83			29.55(-0.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-4	-10000	0	-15	14.88	41%	-0.03	-44.4	1.16%	0	-0.5	42	0

6	Aug_18_2011	31.06	30.14	29.53	29.89			29.69(-1.79%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-3	-10000	6	-28	17.61	41%	0	-40.8	1.16%	0	-0.5	42	0
7	Aug_17_2011	31.06	30.24	29.53	29.79			30.23(0.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	3	-10000	22	-56	12.51	43%	0	-40.4	1.15%	0	-0	43	0
8	Aug_16_2011	31.06	30.3	29.51	29.41			30.03(0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-22	-10000	7	-110	13.19	43%	0.03	-48.8	1.14%	0	-0.3	42	0
9	Aug_15_2011	31.05	30.37	29.53	29.3			29.96(1.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-24	-10000	14	-137	23.86	43%	0	-50.8	1.14%	0	-0.4	39	0
10	Aug_12_2011	31.05	30.43	29.59	29.07			29.54(1.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-48	-10000	-4	-181	12.73	43%	0	-58.8	1.13%	0	-0.9	35	0

11	Aug_11_2011	31.05	30.52	29.71	29.14			29.19(2.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-51	-10000	-4	-191	20.13	41%	0	-60.1	1.13%	0	-1.3	30	0
12	Aug_10_2011	31.05	30.63	29.89	29.2			28.35(-3.83%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-76	-10000	-27	-222	22.1	38%	-0.06	-64.2	1.06%	0	-2.4	21	0
13	Aug_9_2011	31.07	30.79	30.16	29.62			29.48(2.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-60	-10000	-12	-204	28.75	42%	0.03	-64.3	0.96%	0	-1.6	30	0
14	Aug_8_2011	31.06	30.89	30.35	29.79			28.78(-3.78%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.3	-74	-10000	-28	-210	25.89	37%	-0.03	-63.4	0.91%	0	-2.8	19	0
15	Aug_5_2011	31.07	31.04	30.62	30.18			29.91(1.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-56	-10000	-15	-180	24.27	41%	0.03	-63.2	0.79%	0	-1.9	35	0

16	Aug_4_2011	31.06	31.13	30.81	30.36			29.49(-3.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-59	-10000	-26	-158	18.92	38%	0.03	-55.6	0.77%	0	-2.9	26	0
17	Aug_3_2011	31.05	31.26	31.04	30.67			30.44(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-38	-10000	-12	-116	13.51	43%	0.03	-45.5	0.67%	0	-2	37	0
18	Aug_2_2011	31.04	31.32	31.16	30.79			30.32(-1.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-40	-10000	-20	-98	12.28	43%	0.03	-33.1	0.67%	0	-2.6	32	0
19	Aug_1_2011	31.03	31.38	31.29	31			30.72(-0.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-26	-10000	-14	-62	11.19	45%	0.03	-12.5	0.65%	0	-2.2	37	0
20	Jul_29_2011	31.02	31.42	31.34	31.14			30.83(-0.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-26	-10000	-18	-50	12.66	45%	0.03	16.9	0.65%	0	-2.3	36	0

21	Jul_28_2011	31.01	31.42	31.4	31.32			31.03(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-1.3	-19	-10000	-16	-29	6.84	46%	0.03	47.9	0.65%	0	-1.8	35	0
22	Jul_27_2011	31	31.42	31.43	31.48			31.03(-1.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-12	-10000	-10	-18	7.63	48%	0.03	64.4	0.65%	0	-1.8	33	0
23	Jul_26_2011	30.99	31.45	31.47	31.58			31.37(-0.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-4	-10000	-4	-4	5.4	51%	0.06	60.2	0.64%	0	-0.3	45	0
24	Jul_25_2011	30.97	31.42	31.48	31.62			31.45(-0.91%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	5	-10000	5	5	5.91	51%	0.06	47.4	0.65%	0	0.1	50	0
25	Jul_22_2011	30.95	31.38	31.49	31.57			31.74(-0.19%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	6	-10000	8	-2	8.01	53%		30.6	0.64%	0	1.1	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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