Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Aug. 21, 2009

Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Consumer Staples sector ETF)
XLP latest price $24.7400 (1.1%) ($24.5500 - $24.8300) on Fri. Aug. 21, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.02% (three month average)
RSI   53
Latest Price   $24.7400(1.1%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLP advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLP advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(75%)    XLU(72%)    XLK(66%)    XLY(66%)    QQQ(62%)
Factors Impacting XLP price   XLP will decline at least -0.51% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-24%)    TIP(-6%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(6%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.51% (StdDev 1.02%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $24.38(1.48%)
10 Day Moving Average   $24.37(1.52%)
20 Day Moving Average   $24.41(1.35%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   9.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLP price fluctuates within 0.61% (three month std-dev: 1.02%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20090921

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_21_2009	23.13	24.41	24.37	24.38			24.74(1.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	5	-10000	6	1	3.03	57%	0.13	32.8	1.02%	0	2.2	53	0
2	Aug_20_2009	23.1	24.4	24.32	24.31			24.47(0.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-3	-10000	1	-15	2.92	55%	0.13	42.1	1.02%	0	0.5	47	0
3	Aug_19_2009	23.07	24.39	24.32	24.3			24.35(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-6	-10000	1	-25	2.96	55%	0.13	45.5	1.02%	0	-0.2	40	0
4	Aug_18_2009	23.04	24.39	24.29	24.29			24.19(0.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-10	-10000	-2	-33	3.23	59%	0.17	45.9	1.02%	0	-1	32	0
5	Aug_17_2009	23	24.37	24.33	24.31			24.15(-1.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-8	-10000	-2	-27	3.63	59%	0.09	61.5	1.05%	0	-1.2	38	0

6	Aug_14_2009	22.98	24.36	24.37	24.34			24.4(-0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-3	-10000	2	-19	2.43	59%	0.13	75.6	1.05%	0	0.2	48	0
7	Aug_13_2009	22.95	24.34	24.38	24.32			24.43(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-3	-10000	4	-22	5.44	55%	0.13	87.2	1.05%	0	0.4	45	0
8	Aug_12_2009	22.92	24.31	24.39	24.27			24.29(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-8	-10000	-2	-26	2.81	55%	0.13	88.8	1.07%	0	-0.1	51	0
9	Aug_11_2009	22.89	24.29	24.42	24.3			24.3(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-7	-10000	-5	-11	2.61	55%	0.13	83.3	1.08%	0	0	64	0
10	Aug_10_2009	22.86	24.25	24.44	24.36			24.3(0.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-1	-10000	-4	7	4.82	55%	0.13	79	1.08%	0	0.1	64	0

11	Aug_7_2009	22.83	24.2	24.46	24.41			24.28(0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	3	-10000	-3	22	6.3	55%	0.18	67.5	1.09%	0	0.2	62	0
12	Aug_6_2009	22.79	24.14	24.48	24.45			24.18(-1.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	6	-10000	-6	41	6.18	55%	0.13	64.2	1.09%	0	0.1	62	0
13	Aug_5_2009	22.76	24.09	24.5	24.53			24.43(-0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	13	-10000	-3	61	4.47	55%	0.13	62.3	1.09%	0	0.6	73	0
14	Aug_4_2009	22.73	24.03	24.46	24.57			24.59(0.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	20	-10000	2	73	4.36	57%	0.18	63.1	1.09%	0	1	85	0
15	Aug_3_2009	22.69	23.95	24.41	24.54			24.55(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	22	-10000	1	84	5.84	57%	0.18	61.6	1.1%	0	1	89	0

16	Jul_31_2009	22.65	23.89	24.35	24.54			24.52(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	24	-10000	0	96	4.42	57%	0.18	64.9	1.11%	0	1.1	89	0
17	Jul_30_2009	22.61	23.81	24.3	24.52			24.57(-0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	34	-10000	4	122	4.9	57%	0.22	61.7	1.11%	0	1.3	93	0
18	Jul_29_2009	22.56	23.75	24.23	24.47			24.6(0.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	42	-10000	9	140	3.66	60%	0.22	68.6	1.11%	0	1.5	89	0
19	Jul_28_2009	22.51	23.67	24.14	24.35			24.47(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	39	-10000	7	136	4.66	60%	0.22	68	1.13%	0	1.5	80	0
20	Jul_27_2009	22.46	23.6	24.04	24.25			24.44(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	39	-10000	7	133	4.54	60%	0.22	69.5	1.13%	0	1.6	81	0

21	Jul_24_2009	22.41	23.53	23.93	24.16			24.53(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	38	-10000	9	125	2.27	60%	0.22	70.7	1.13%	0	2	72	0
22	Jul_23_2009	22.36	23.45	23.76	24.04			24.31(1.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	33	-10000	6	112	5.29	60%	0.18	69.1	1.12%	0	2	76	0
23	Jul_22_2009	22.32	23.37	23.63	23.96			23.98(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	27	-10000	4	97	4.03	58%	0.22	68	1.11%	0	1.5	59	0
24	Jul_21_2009	22.27	23.31	23.55	23.91			23.97(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	31	-10000	9	98	6.42	58%	0.18	65.3	1.13%	0	1.6	65	0
25	Jul_20_2009	22.23	23.25	23.46	23.79			24(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	28	-10000	10	81	5.11	54%		58.9	1.14%	0	1.9	61	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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