Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Aug. 13, 2008

Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Consumer Staples sector ETF)
XLP latest price $28.5700 (-1%) ($28.4300 - $28.7500) on Wed. Aug. 13, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.1% (three month average)
RSI   64
Latest Price   $28.5700(-1%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLP advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLP advances 2.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLP advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(77%)    XLU(73%)    XLK(69%)    XLY(69%)    QQQ(65%)
Factors Impacting XLP price   XLP will decline at least -0.55% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-11%)    TIP(-7%)    GLD(3%)    LQD(17%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.55% (StdDev 1.1%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $28.47(0.35%)
10 Day Moving Average   $28.14(1.53%)
20 Day Moving Average   $27.7(3.14%)
To recent high   -1%
To recent low   7.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLP price fluctuates within 2.2% (three month std-dev: 1.1%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_13_2008	27.79	27.7	28.14	28.47			28.57(-1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	31	-10000	3	116	4.62	48%	0.04	61.8	1.1%	0	1.4	64	0
2	Aug_12_2008	27.78	27.63	28.07	28.43			28.86(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	39	-10000	10	126	3.04	49%	0	64	1.09%	0	2.1	64	0
3	Aug_11_2008	27.78	27.53	27.93	28.27			28.66(0.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	40	-10000	14	117	2.9	49%	0.04	60.1	1.1%	0	2.1	65	0
4	Aug_8_2008	27.77	27.44	27.75	28.06			28.41(2.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	35	-10000	14	99	3.09	49%	0.04	56.1	1.09%	0	2.1	68	0
5	Aug_7_2008	27.76	27.36	27.62	27.85			27.83(-1.94%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	25	-10000	6	81	3.99	46%	0.04	51.9	1.06%	0	1.1	63	0

6	Aug_6_2008	27.75	27.33	27.56	27.76			28.38(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	25	-10000	8	74	5.26	48%	0.04	54	1.04%	0	2.6	61	0
7	Aug_5_2008	27.74	27.26	27.46	27.65			28.08(1.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	23	-10000	8	67	3.4	46%	0.04	64.1	1.04%	0	2.6	59	0
8	Aug_4_2008	27.73	27.21	27.37	27.54			27.6(0.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	24	-10000	11	64	2.25	44%	0.04	73.7	1.01%	0	1.4	59	0
9	Aug_1_2008	27.72	27.18	27.29	27.39			27.35(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	13	-10000	3	41	4.16	46%	0	68.8	1.01%	0	0.7	56	0
10	Jul_31_2008	27.72	27.15	27.24	27.35			27.4(-1.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	10	-10000	2	33	5.02	46%	-0.04	57.3	1.02%	0	0.9	57	0

11	Jul_30_2008	27.73	27.11	27.23	27.32			27.83(1.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	13	-10000	6	34	3.8	46%	0.04	37.4	1.02%	0	2.5	57	0
12	Jul_29_2008	27.72	27.05	27.16	27.24			27.51(2.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	10	-10000	4	27	2.98	44%	0	28.3	1.03%	0	1.8	57	0
13	Jul_28_2008	27.72	27.01	27.1	27.18			26.88(-0.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.3	4	-10000	1	13	1.86	41%	0	20	0.99%	0	-0.6	43	0
14	Jul_25_2008	27.72	27	27.11	27.16			27.11(-0.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	6	-10000	4	12	5.23	41%	0	6.5	0.99%	0	0.4	53	0
15	Jul_24_2008	27.72	26.99	27.09	27.16			27.26(-0.62%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	2	-10000	0	9	3.32	41%	0	-11.8	0.99%	0	1.1	60	0

16	Jul_23_2008	27.72	27	27.08	27.11			27.43(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	8	-10000	3	22	3.09	41%	0	-5.6	0.99%	0	1.5	62	0
17	Jul_22_2008	27.72	26.98	27.08	27.07			27.24(1.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	9	-10000	4	24	1.36	41%	0	-21	0.99%	0	1	59	0
18	Jul_21_2008	27.72	26.97	27.04	27.01			26.77(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	5	-10000	-2	25	3.79	37%	-0.04	-43.8	0.96%	0	-0.8	52	0
19	Jul_18_2008	27.73	26.98	27.06	27.04			26.83(-1.69%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	9	-10000	-1	39	2.96	37%	0	-58.3	0.96%	0	-0.6	57	0
20	Jul_17_2008	27.73	26.98	27.05	27.06			27.29(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	11	-10000	1	41	5.11	40%	-0.04	-62.5	0.94%	0	1	59	0

21	Jul_16_2008	27.74	27.02	26.99	27.05			27.24(1.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	8	-10000	4	19	3.59	40%	0	-70.1	0.94%	0	0.8	41	0
22	Jul_15_2008	27.74	27.04	26.94	27			26.9(-0.19%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-4	-10000	-6	3	8.63	37%	-0.04	-71.3	0.93%	0	-0.4	48	0
23	Jul_14_2008	27.75	27.08	26.93	27			26.95(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.4	3	-10000	0	11	3.94	37%	-0.04	-63.2	0.94%	0	-0.4	50	0
24	Jul_11_2008	27.76	27.13	26.89	27.08			26.93(-1.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	3	-10000	4	1	4.21	37%	0	-51.9	0.94%	0	-0.5	48	0
25	Jul_10_2008	27.76	27.19	26.88	27.03			27.22(0.74%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	2	-10000	9	-18	4.39	38%		-55.5	0.93%	0	0.1	45	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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