Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Apr. 2, 2008

Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Consumer Staples sector ETF)
XLP latest price $28.2100 (0.04%) ($28.1100 - $28.4600) on Wed. Apr. 2, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1% (three month average)
RSI   64
Latest Price   $28.2100(0.04%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLP advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLP advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLP advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(77%)    XLU(72%)    XLK(69%)    XLY(69%)    QQQ(65%)
Factors Impacting XLP price   XLP will decline at least -0.5% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-12%)    TIP(-8%)    GLD(1%)    LQD(16%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.5% (StdDev 1%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $28.01(0.71%)
10 Day Moving Average   $27.89(1.15%)
20 Day Moving Average   $27.57(2.32%)
To recent high   -1.6%
To recent low   5.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLP price fluctuates within 1.49% (three month std-dev: 1%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20080502

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_2_2008	27.99	27.57	27.89	28.01			28.21(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	28	-10000	6	92	3.27	55%	0	38.9	1%	0	1.6	64	0
2	Apr_1_2008	27.99	27.52	27.81	27.92			28.2(1.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	-10000	3	77	7.42	55%	0	29	1.01%	0	1.8	62	0
3	Mar_31_2008	27.99	27.48	27.67	27.88			27.86(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	17	-10000	-1	70	2.04	52%	0	25.2	1.01%	0	1.1	67	0
4	Mar_28_2008	27.99	27.44	27.59	27.9			27.88(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	21	-10000	4	73	2.74	52%	0	21.8	1.01%	0	1.3	63	0
5	Mar_27_2008	27.99	27.43	27.54	27.85			27.91(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	24	-10000	7	75	2.45	51%	0	22.5	1.01%	0	1.5	61	0

6	Mar_26_2008	27.99	27.43	27.49	27.75			27.77(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	20	-10000	6	63	2.15	51%	-0.04	22.1	1.02%	0	1.2	54	0
7	Mar_25_2008	28	27.41	27.46	27.66			28(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	28	-10000	17	60	3.44	51%	0	15	1.01%	0	1.8	59	0
8	Mar_24_2008	28	27.39	27.35	27.42			27.93(1.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	16	-10000	14	21	4.83	51%	0	-0.9	1.02%	0	1.8	57	0
9	Mar_20_2008	28	27.37	27.26	27.23			27.62(0.62%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	1	-10000	3	-7	3.95	52%	-0.04	-14.7	1.03%	0	0.9	58	0
10	Mar_19_2008	28.01	27.35	27.21	27.23			27.45(0.55%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	1	-6	-10000	0	-22	5.41	53%	0	-20.2	1.03%	0	0.4	46	0

11	Mar_18_2008	28.01	27.34	27.2	27.19			27.3(1.83%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-9	-10000	-3	-27	3.91	53%	-0.07	-23.6	1.03%	0	-0.1	45	0
12	Mar_17_2008	28.03	27.36	27.21	27.23			26.81(-0.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-9	-10000	-1	-34	5.31	51%	-0.04	-10.4	1%	0	-1.9	31	0
13	Mar_14_2008	28.04	27.39	27.27	27.25			26.96(-1.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-10	-10000	-1	-36	4.15	49%	-0.04	0	1%	0	-1.7	41	0
14	Mar_13_2008	28.05	27.39	27.29	27.27			27.43(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-8	-10000	3	-42	8.38	51%	-0.04	5.5	0.99%	0	0.1	47	0
15	Mar_12_2008	28.06	27.39	27.31	27.27			27.43(-0.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-11	-10000	0	-43	4.54	51%	0	9.9	1%	0	0.1	53	0

16	Mar_11_2008	28.06	27.41	27.32	27.23			27.5(2.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-8	-10000	1	-36	3.68	50%	-0.04	20.9	1%	0	0.4	55	0
17	Mar_10_2008	28.07	27.41	27.36	27.21			26.93(-0.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-15	-10000	-7	-40	4.28	47%	-0.04	15.4	0.96%	0	-1.8	38	0
18	Mar_7_2008	28.08	27.39	27.44	27.3			27.07(-0.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-6	-10000	-1	-20	5.31	49%	-0.04	13.1	0.96%	0	-1.2	48	0
19	Mar_6_2008	28.09	27.4	27.49	27.31			27.2(-0.91%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-9	-10000	-7	-14	1.87	49%	-0.04	13.1	0.97%	0	-0.7	51	0
20	Mar_5_2008	28.1	27.38	27.51	27.4			27.45(0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-2	-10000	-2	-2	2.13	49%	0	21.7	0.97%	0	0.2	52	0

21	Mar_4_2008	28.1	27.36	27.49	27.43			27.38(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-9	-10000	-9	-7	4.35	49%	-0.04	22.1	0.97%	0	0.1	49	0
22	Mar_3_2008	28.11	27.35	27.49	27.55			27.4(1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	3	-10000	-4	23	3.03	49%	-0.04	38.9	0.97%	0	0.2	55	0
23	Feb_29_2008	28.12	27.35	27.53	27.6			27.13(-1.88%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.5	5	-10000	-7	41	4.41	47%	-0.04	54.9	0.95%	0	-0.7	57	0
24	Feb_28_2008	28.13	27.36	27.54	27.69			27.65(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	20	-10000	5	63	3.23	52%	-0.04	68.2	0.93%	0	1	58	0
25	Feb_27_2008	28.14	27.32	27.52	27.62			27.6(-1.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	21	-10000	6	66	2.4	53%		53	0.95%	0	0.9	61	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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