Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Mar. 1, 2004

Trading Signals: XLP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Consumer Staples sector ETF)
XLP latest price $23.2800 (1.13%) ($23.0400 - $23.2800) on Mon. Mar. 1, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.56% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $23.2800(1.13%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLP advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLP advances 1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLP advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(76%)    XLU(70%)    XLY(69%)    XLK(68%)    QQQ(65%)
Factors Impacting XLP price   XLP will decline at least -0.28% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-24%)    SHY(-13%)    TIP(-9%)    REMX(0%)    LQD(14%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.28% (StdDev 0.56%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $23(1.22%)
10 Day Moving Average   $22.89(1.7%)
20 Day Moving Average   $22.61(2.96%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   9.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLP price fluctuates within 1.59% (three month std-dev: 0.56%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20040401

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_1_2004	21.64	22.61	22.89	23			23.28(1.13%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	37	-10000	8	125	0.35	66%	0.14	84.3	0.56%	0	1.9	77	0
2	Feb_27_2004	21.61	22.54	22.8	22.95			23.02(0.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	33	-10000	5	116	0.34	64%	0.09	81.3	0.54%	0	1.3	73	0
3	Feb_26_2004	21.59	22.48	22.75	22.92			22.93(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	37	-10000	8	125	0.27	64%	0.09	81.8	0.54%	0	1.2	76	0
4	Feb_25_2004	21.57	22.42	22.71	22.87			22.93(0.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	42	-10000	11	133	0.74	64%	0.09	73	0.54%	0	1.3	79	0
5	Feb_24_2004	21.55	22.36	22.67	22.8			22.86(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	41	-10000	8	141	0.75	67%	0.09	74.1	0.54%	0	1.3	80	0

6	Feb_23_2004	21.53	22.32	22.63	22.75			23(0.57%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	53	-10000	19	155	0.81	69%	0.09	75.4	0.56%	0	1.7	88	0
7	Feb_20_2004	21.51	22.25	22.57	22.63			22.87(0.79%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	46	-10000	10	152	0.53	65%	0.14	72.9	0.56%	0	1.7	88	0
8	Feb_19_2004	21.48	22.19	22.51	22.57			22.69(0.49%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	42	-10000	6	151	0.34	64%	0.09	68.3	0.56%	0	1.4	78	0
9	Feb_18_2004	21.46	22.13	22.45	22.53			22.58(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	42	-10000	1	166	0.49	64%	0.09	69.3	0.56%	0	1.3	81	0
10	Feb_17_2004	21.44	22.08	22.39	22.52			22.61(0.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	48	-10000	5	177	0.21	64%	0.14	67.3	0.56%	0	1.4	71	0

11	Feb_13_2004	21.41	22.03	22.32	22.52			22.41(-0.62%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	42	-10000	0	168	0.48	56%	0.09	69.9	0.56%	0	1.1	63	0
12	Feb_12_2004	21.39	21.99	22.26	22.49			22.55(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	51	-10000	9	176	0.23	60%	0.09	70.7	0.57%	0	1.6	72	0
13	Feb_11_2004	21.37	21.94	22.2	22.43			22.51(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	54	-10000	12	178	0.36	60%	0.09	70.3	0.58%	0	1.7	74	0
14	Feb_10_2004	21.35	21.88	22.11	22.35			22.54(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	53	-10000	17	162	0.29	60%	0.09	65.1	0.58%	0	2.1	72	0
15	Feb_9_2004	21.33	21.83	22.03	22.24			22.45(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	50	-10000	17	149	0.41	60%	0.09	59.4	0.58%	0	2.1	73	0

16	Feb_6_2004	21.31	21.78	21.98	22.13			22.42(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	49	-10000	20	137	0.48	61%	0.09	52.9	0.58%	0	2.5	69	0
17	Feb_5_2004	21.29	21.73	21.9	22			22.25(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	36	-10000	11	109	0.49	59%	0.05	42.6	0.57%	0	2.4	67	0
18	Feb_4_2004	21.28	21.7	21.83	21.93			22.11(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	35	-10000	16	93	0.38	56%	0.09	41	0.57%	0	2.3	65	0
19	Feb_3_2004	21.26	21.68	21.78	21.83			21.98(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	22	-10000	6	68	0.23	57%	0.05	33.3	0.57%	0	2	65	0
20	Feb_2_2004	21.25	21.66	21.74	21.79			21.87(0.41%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.6	12	-10000	-3	55	0.1	57%	0.09	35.4	0.58%	0	1.5	61	0

21	Jan_30_2004	21.23	21.66	21.71	21.81			21.78(-0.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	20	-10000	3	69	0.16	57%	0.05	43.3	0.58%	0	1.1	62	0
22	Jan_29_2004	21.22	21.64	21.69	21.79			21.9(1.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	26	-10000	11	72	0.83	57%	0.05	50	0.57%	0	2	59	0
23	Jan_28_2004	21.21	21.64	21.66	21.79			21.6(-1.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1	12	-10000	0	49	0.4	56%	0.09	43.6	0.55%	0	-0.2	50	0
24	Jan_27_2004	21.19	21.63	21.65	21.72			21.82(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	19	-10000	10	45	0.22	59%	0.05	52.7	0.55%	0	1.6	53	0
25	Jan_26_2004	21.18	21.61	21.62	21.66			21.93(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.5	14	-10000	10	24	0.45	59%		39.2	0.54%	0	2.9	59	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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