Trading Signals: XLK Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 29, 2012

Trading Signals: XLK Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Technology sector ETF)
XLK latest price $30.2500 (-0.2%) ($30.0300 - $30.2900) on Thu. Mar. 29, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.6% (three month average)
RSI   81
Latest Price   $30.2500(-0.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLK advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLK advances 1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLK advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(91%)    SPY(88%)    XLY(85%)    IWM(73%)    VWO(70%)
Factors Impacting XLK price   XLK will decline at least -0.3% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-21%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-4%)    TIP(0%)    GLD(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.3% (StdDev 0.6%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $30.28(-0.1%)
10 Day Moving Average   $30.16(0.3%)
20 Day Moving Average   $29.73(1.75%)
To recent high   -0.6%
To recent low   18.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLK price fluctuates within 1.95% (three month std-dev: 0.6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120429

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_29_2012	27.15	29.73	30.16	30.28			30.25(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	32	-10000	6	110	5.74	81%	0.18	57.9	0.6%	0	0.9	81	0
2	Mar_28_2012	27.1	29.67	30.13	30.23			30.31(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	37	-10000	6	131	6.49	81%	0.15	60	0.6%	0	1.1	84	0
3	Mar_27_2012	27.06	29.6	30.09	30.18			30.42(-0.03%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	44	-10000	7	156	6.44	81%	0.15	62.2	0.62%	0	1.4	90	0
4	Mar_26_2012	27.02	29.53	30.03	30.11			30.43(1.47%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	52	-10000	7	185	12.19	81%	0.19	65.6	0.62%	0	1.6	91	0
5	Mar_23_2012	26.97	29.45	29.91	30.04			29.99(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	50	-10000	2	193	9.51	78%	0.15	68.3	0.6%	0	1	77	0

6	Mar_22_2012	26.93	29.39	29.84	30.04			29.99(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	48	-10000	0	193	7.5	78%	0.15	70.6	0.61%	0	1.1	68	0
7	Mar_21_2012	26.89	29.33	29.75	30.02			30.06(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	51	-10000	3	194	8.82	78%	0.19	74.5	0.62%	0	1.4	68	0
8	Mar_20_2012	26.84	29.25	29.62	29.99			30.07(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	48	-10000	5	177	5.72	84%	0.19	78.7	0.66%	0	1.6	71	0
9	Mar_19_2012	26.79	29.18	29.48	29.94			30.1(0.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	48	-10000	16	144	8.93	84%	0.11	85.7	0.74%	0	1.9	67	0
10	Mar_16_2012	26.76	29.1	29.35	29.76			29.88(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	39	-10000	13	116	9.48	82%	0.15	86.1	0.75%	0	1.7	68	0

11	Mar_15_2012	26.72	29.03	29.26	29.62			29.99(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	39	-10000	17	104	12.45	82%	0.19	84.2	0.75%	0	2.2	71	0
12	Mar_14_2012	26.67	28.93	29.17	29.43			29.91(0.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	39	-10000	21	91	12.74	82%	0.15	78.6	0.75%	0	2.3	73	0
13	Mar_13_2012	26.63	28.85	29.06	29.2			29.8(1.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	33	-10000	22	65	19.01	82%	0.15	78.1	0.79%	0	2.6	73	0
14	Mar_12_2012	26.59	28.76	28.98	28.95			29.22(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	14	-10000	7	34	5.93	78%	0.15	75.7	0.77%	0	1.4	63	0
15	Mar_9_2012	26.55	28.71	28.95	28.87			29.18(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	9	-10000	2	29	6.37	78%	0.15	70.3	0.79%	0	1.4	65	0

16	Mar_8_2012	26.51	28.66	28.91	28.85			29.05(1.01%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.6	6	-10000	-2	31	7.26	78%	0.15	83.5	0.81%	0	1.2	63	0
17	Mar_7_2012	26.47	28.61	28.87	28.87			28.76(0.74%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	9	-10000	-3	45	10.79	75%	0.11	89.3	0.84%	0	0.4	67	0
18	Mar_6_2012	26.44	28.56	28.85	28.91			28.55(-0.97%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	8	-10000	-8	56	14.04	75%	0.11	92.7	0.83%	0	-0	59	0
19	Mar_5_2012	26.41	28.52	28.87	29.01			28.83(-0.86%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	21	-10000	-1	87	7.25	87%	0.11	102.7	0.82%	0	0.7	68	0
20	Mar_2_2012	26.38	28.47	28.84	29.02			29.08(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	29	-10000	4	103	8.79	100%	0.15	105.7	0.82%	0	1.4	78	0

21	Mar_1_2012	26.34	28.39	28.78	28.97			29.12(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	34	-10000	9	107	13.98	100%	0.15	101.8	0.82%	0	1.5	70	0
22	Feb_29_2012	26.3	28.3	28.69	28.87			28.95(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	26	-10000	6	86	10.46	100%	0.15	94.9	0.93%	0	1.3	73	0
23	Feb_28_2012	26.26	28.2	28.62	28.79			29.08(0.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	27	-10000	7	88	10.11	100%	0.15	86.4	0.93%	0	1.6	79	0
24	Feb_27_2012	26.22	28.1	28.53	28.7			28.87(0.17%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	24	-10000	5	81	8.53	100%	0.19	80.4	1.01%	0	1.4	78	0
25	Feb_24_2012	26.17	28	28.44	28.63			28.82(0.59%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	23	-10000	4	80	5.5	100%		75.8	1.01%	0	1.4	77	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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