Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ XAR: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Mar. 4, 2014

Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Sep. 29, 2011 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF)
XAR latest price $53.0100 (1.96%) ($51.8900 - $53.2300) on Tue. Mar. 4, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1% (three month average)
RSI   76
Latest Price   $53.0100(1.96%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XAR advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XAR advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XAR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(79%)    XLF(79%)    SPY(76%)    PEJ(73%)    XLY(72%)
Factors Impacting XAR price   XAR will decline at least -0.5% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-23%)    UUP(-11%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-6%)    GDXJ(1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.5% (StdDev 1%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $51.82(2.3%)
10 Day Moving Average   $51.62(2.69%)
20 Day Moving Average   $50.62(4.72%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   12.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XAR price fluctuates within 2.61% (three month std-dev: 1%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140404

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_4_2014	48.33	50.62	51.62	51.82			53.01(1.96%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	33	-10000	13	92	0.02	58%	0.23	53.6	1%	0	1.8	76	0
2	Mar_3_2014	48.22	50.38	51.41	51.82			51.99(0.95%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	23	-10000	0	91	0.01	55%	0.19	42.9	0.98%	0	1.3	76	0
3	Feb_28_2014	48.13	50.24	51.27	51.48			51.5(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	28	-10000	1	110	0.02	55%	0.21	44.1	0.97%	0	1	71	0
4	Feb_27_2014	48.03	50.13	51.16	51.46			51.61(1.24%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	35	-10000	2	133	0.01	55%	0.21	37.3	0.98%	0	1.2	77	0
5	Feb_26_2014	47.93	49.98	51.01	51.42			50.98(-0.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	40	-10000	2	155	0.02	53%	0.21	24.8	0.97%	0	0.8	75	0

6	Feb_25_2014	47.83	49.92	50.88	51.36			51.33(-1.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	44	-10000	2	168	0.02	53%	0.19	19.4	0.97%	0	1.2	76	0
7	Feb_24_2014	47.74	49.83	50.66	51.32			51.96(1.09%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	55	-10000	12	185	0.02	56%	0.23	14.3	0.95%	0	1.9	84	0
8	Feb_21_2014	47.63	49.7	50.38	51.04			51.4(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	49	-10000	9	167	0.01	58%	0.19	2	0.95%	0	1.7	65	0
9	Feb_20_2014	47.54	49.68	50.08	50.83			51.44(1.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	45	-10000	12	143	0.01	58%	0.21	-1.5	0.97%	0	1.8	66	0
10	Feb_19_2014	47.44	49.69	49.77	50.54			50.69(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	37	-10000	9	122	0.01	55%	0.17	-2.9	0.95%	0	1	66	0

11	Feb_18_2014	47.36	49.7	49.54	50.32			51.1(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	38	-10000	18	96	0.01	55%	0.28	-4.2	0.95%	0	1.3	56	0
12	Feb_14_2014	47.23	49.67	49.25	49.9			50.56(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	21	-10000	12	47	0.01	54%	0.17	-14.1	0.93%	0	0.8	54	0
13	Feb_13_2014	47.15	49.68	49.12	49.63			50.36(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	21	-10000	18	28	0.02	54%	0.17	-17.1	0.94%	0	0.6	54	0
14	Feb_12_2014	47.07	49.7	48.99	49.22			49.97(0.69%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	4	-10000	15	-28	0.01	54%	0.17	-21.7	0.93%	0	0.2	38	0
15	Feb_11_2014	46.99	49.72	48.99	48.88			49.63(1.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-16	-10000	10	-93	0.01	54%	0.15	-25.6	0.93%	0	-0.1	32	0

16	Feb_10_2014	46.92	49.74	48.86	48.65			48.97(-0.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-27	-10000	7	-129	0.01	51%	0.13	-27.4	0.92%	0	-0.7	36	0
17	Feb_7_2014	46.86	49.82	48.93	48.5			49.2(1.78%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-41	-10000	-2	-158	0.01	52%	0.13	-25.3	0.93%	0	-0.6	38	0
18	Feb_6_2014	46.8	49.86	48.96	48.54			48.34(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-50	-10000	-8	-177	0.01	49%	0.09	-20.5	0.93%	0	-1.4	32	0
19	Feb_5_2014	46.76	49.94	49.24	48.73			48.28(-0.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-43	-10000	-4	-160	0.01	49%	0.11	-16.8	0.93%	0	-1.6	33	0
20	Feb_4_2014	46.71	50	49.6	48.82			48.44(0.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-45	-10000	-12	-142	0.03	49%	0.11	-15.8	0.93%	0	-1.6	38	0

21	Feb_3_2014	46.66	50.05	49.87	49.1			48.26(-2.27%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-38	-10000	-13	-113	0.02	49%	0.11	-10.2	0.93%	0	-1.9	40	0
22	Jan_31_2014	46.61	50.1	50.15	49.4			49.38(0.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-24	-10000	-2	-89	0.01	53%	0.15	-5.2	0.88%	0	-0.8	43	0
23	Jan_30_2014	46.54	50.09	50.31	49.45			49.27(1.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-35	-10000	-19	-83	0.02	53%	0.15	-5.6	0.88%	0	-0.9	47	0
24	Jan_29_2014	46.47	50.11	50.48	49.86			48.73(-2.29%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-33	-10000	-30	-42	0.02	51%	0.13	9.6	0.87%	0	-1.6	47	0
25	Jan_28_2014	46.41	50.15	50.67	50.51			49.87(0.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-1	-10000	-12	31	0.01	56%		33.1	0.82%	0	-0.3	58	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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