Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 8, 2013

Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Sep. 29, 2011 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF)
XAR latest price $42.3200 (0.5%) ($42.2500 - $42.5600) on Thu. Aug. 8, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.81% (three month average)
RSI   70
Latest Price   $42.3200(0.5%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XAR advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XAR advances 1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XAR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(79%)    SPY(76%)    PEJ(73%)    XLY(72%)    XLK(68%)
Factors Impacting XAR price   XAR will decline at least -0.405% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-23%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-6%)    GLD(1%)    TIP(2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.405% (StdDev 0.81%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $42.32(0%)
10 Day Moving Average   $41.94(0.91%)
20 Day Moving Average   $41.51(1.95%)
To recent high   -0.5%
To recent low   15.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XAR price fluctuates within 1.59% (three month std-dev: 0.81%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130908

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_8_2013	37.82	41.51	41.94	42.32			42.32(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	22	-10000	1	83	0.01	70%	0.19	96.2	0.81%	0	1.2	70	0
2	Aug_7_2013	37.75	41.42	41.87	42.3			42.11(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	29	-10000	8	92	0.01	70%	0.19	103.6	0.82%	0	1	70	0
3	Aug_6_2013	37.68	41.32	41.81	42.17			42.17(-0.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	33	-10000	11	98	0	70%	0.19	100.5	0.81%	0	1.1	76	0
4	Aug_5_2013	37.61	41.2	41.75	41.99			42.55(0.24%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	38	-10000	15	105	0	73%	0.21	95.3	0.8%	0	1.7	86	0
5	Aug_2_2013	37.53	41.05	41.61	41.74			42.45(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	31	-10000	13	86	0	74%	0.21	89.1	0.82%	0	1.7	74	0

6	Aug_1_2013	37.45	40.89	41.48	41.51			42.2(1.78%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	25	-10000	7	77	0.01	74%	0.21	90.1	0.81%	0	1.7	76	0
7	Jul_31_2013	37.37	40.71	41.36	41.39			41.46(0.39%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	18	-10000	-1	74	0	72%	0.19	82.9	0.8%	0	0.9	66	0
8	Jul_30_2013	37.3	40.58	41.29	41.4			41.3(0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	19	-10000	-4	88	0	72%	0.19	83.6	0.8%	0	0.8	72	0
9	Jul_29_2013	37.23	40.46	41.2	41.46			41.29(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.2	28	-10000	1	108	0	72%	0.19	89.7	0.8%	0	0.8	73	0
10	Jul_26_2013	37.16	40.33	41.15	41.44			41.28(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	33	-10000	1	129	0	72%	0.22	88.4	0.8%	0	0.9	75	0

11	Jul_25_2013	37.08	40.2	41.07	41.43			41.62(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	45	-10000	7	157	0	77%	0.22	89.5	0.79%	0	1.3	84	0
12	Jul_24_2013	37	40.01	40.95	41.32			41.53(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	51	-10000	10	174	0.01	77%	0.24	80.1	0.84%	0	1.3	86	0
13	Jul_23_2013	36.91	39.8	40.8	41.15			41.6(1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	56	-10000	14	183	0	78%	0.24	66.9	0.84%	0	1.5	84	0
14	Jul_22_2013	36.82	39.61	40.62	40.91			41.19(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	47	-10000	5	171	0	77%	0.22	58.1	0.85%	0	1.3	77	0
15	Jul_19_2013	36.74	39.43	40.46	40.82			41.19(0.19%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	54	-10000	10	186	0	78%	0.22	54.3	0.85%	0	1.5	80	0

16	Jul_18_2013	36.66	39.26	40.25	40.65			41.11(1.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	50	-10000	7	179	0	76%	0.22	51	0.86%	0	1.6	79	0
17	Jul_17_2013	36.58	39.13	40	40.53			40.67(0.74%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	52	-10000	8	183	0	71%	0.22	54.5	0.87%	0	1.4	81	0
18	Jul_16_2013	36.5	39.02	39.81	40.39			40.37(-0.96%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	51	-10000	6	186	0	67%	0.22	55.3	0.91%	0	1.3	83	0
19	Jul_15_2013	36.42	38.92	39.67	40.28			40.76(1.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	60	-10000	13	199	0	69%	0.22	56.3	0.93%	0	1.9	82	0
20	Jul_12_2013	36.34	38.79	39.44	40.04			40.35(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	59	-10000	14	195	0	68%	0.22	58.6	0.93%	0	1.8	79	0

21	Jul_11_2013	36.26	38.67	39.26	39.78			40.52(1.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	63	-10000	21	189	0.01	70%	0.19	57.9	0.93%	0	2.3	78	0
22	Jul_10_2013	36.19	38.54	38.99	39.39			39.94(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	45	-10000	13	139	0	69%	0.19	56.4	0.95%	0	2	62	0
23	Jul_9_2013	36.12	38.46	38.73	39.14			39.82(0.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	31	-10000	9	98	0.01	69%	0.11	57.9	0.95%	0	2.2	61	0
24	Jul_8_2013	36.08	38.38	38.51	38.97			39.56(1.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	26	-10000	11	70	0	70%	0.17	65.2	0.95%	0	2.3	59	0
25	Jul_5_2013	36.02	38.28	38.32	38.76			39.06(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	15	-10000	6	42	0.01	68%		56.7	0.94%	0	1.7	58	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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