Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 20, 2012

Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Sep. 29, 2011 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF)
XAR latest price $30.5600 (1.13%) ($30.5600 - $30.5800) on Mon. Aug. 20, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.12% (three month average)
RSI   80
Latest Price   $30.5600(1.13%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XAR advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XAR advances 1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XAR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(78%)    SPY(75%)    PEJ(72%)    XLY(71%)    XLK(67%)
Factors Impacting XAR price   XAR will decline at least -0.56% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-23%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-6%)    TIP(2%)    GLD(2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.56% (StdDev 1.12%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0%

5 Day Moving Average   $30.2(1.19%)
10 Day Moving Average   $30.09(1.56%)
20 Day Moving Average   $29.55(3.42%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   10.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XAR price fluctuates within 2.06% (three month std-dev: 1.12%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120920

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_20_2012	29.36	29.55	30.09	30.2			30.56(1.13%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	30	-10000	6	103	0	59%	0	44.7	1.12%	0	1.7	80	0
2	Aug_17_2012	29.36	29.48	29.98	30.1			30.22(0.5%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	25	-10000	2	93	0	53%	-0.03	46.1	1.19%	0	1.3	77	0
3	Aug_16_2012	29.37	29.43	29.85	30.1			30.07(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	21	-10000	0	85	0	51%	0	51.4	1.19%	0	1.2	71	0
4	Aug_15_2012	29.37	29.39	29.74	30.07			30.07(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	24	-10000	2	90	0	51%	-0.03	62.1	1.2%	0	1.3	80	0
5	Aug_14_2012	29.38	29.35	29.62	30.03			30.07(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	27	-10000	5	92	0	51%	-0.03	66.7	1.2%	0	1.4	76	0

6	Aug_13_2012	29.39	29.28	29.53	29.95			30.07(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	30	-10000	6	100	0	51%	-0.03	62.8	1.2%	0	1.6	80	0
7	Aug_10_2012	29.4	29.22	29.44	29.84			30.07(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.5	34	-10000	14	94	0	51%	0	57.1	1.2%	0	1.9	59	0
8	Aug_9_2012	29.4	29.16	29.36	29.59			30.07(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	29	-10000	14	73	0	51%	-0.03	40.8	1.2%	0	2.1	59	0
9	Aug_8_2012	29.41	29.07	29.22	29.35			29.89(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	19	-10000	12	38	0	50%	0	13.4	1.2%	0	2.1	54	0
10	Aug_7_2012	29.41	29.01	29.1	29.14			29.66(0.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	6	-10000	5	9	0	50%	-0.07	-14.5	1.21%	0	1.9	55	0

11	Aug_6_2012	29.43	28.98	28.97	29.05			29.5(2.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.5	0	-10000	3	-8	0	50%	-0.03	-27.1	1.21%	0	1.7	58	0
12	Aug_3_2012	29.44	28.97	28.93	29			28.85(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.5	-7	-10000	-5	-11	0	45%	-0.1	-37	1.18%	0	-0.4	51	0
13	Aug_2_2012	29.47	28.98	28.97	29.09			28.85(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	3	-10000	2	6	0	44%	-0.07	-12.3	1.18%	0	-0.4	51	0
14	Aug_1_2012	29.49	29.02	29.02	29.05			28.85(-1.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	5	-10000	1	18	0	44%	-0.07	4.4	1.19%	0	-0.5	57	0
15	Jul_31_2012	29.51	29.06	29.06	29.03			29.22(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.5	15	-10000	10	28	0	45%	-0.07	22.6	1.19%	0	0.4	58	0

16	Jul_30_2012	29.53	29.06	29.02	28.85			29.22(-0.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	-1	-10000	-1	1	0.03	45%	-0.03	21.3	1.19%	0	0.4	49	0
17	Jul_27_2012	29.54	29.07	28.98	28.86			29.3(2.23%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	-0	-10000	1	-4	0	45%	-0.03	31.5	1.19%	0	0.6	50	0
18	Jul_26_2012	29.55	29.02	28.94	28.85			28.66(-0.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-11	-10000	-9	-15	0	42%	-0.03	22.7	1.15%	0	-0.9	42	0
19	Jul_25_2012	29.56	29	28.94	29			28.76(1.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-8	-10000	-5	-18	0	44%	-0.03	27.1	1.16%	0	-0.5	37	0
20	Jul_24_2012	29.57	28.98	28.92	29.09			28.33(-3.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-11	-10000	-6	-26	0	42%	-0.07	26.6	1.16%	0	-1.3	30	0

21	Jul_23_2012	29.59	28.99	28.92	29.19			29.24(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-0	-10000	5	-16	0	46%	-0.03	31.9	1.09%	0	0.5	46	0
22	Jul_20_2012	29.6	28.96	29.01	29.11			29.24(-0.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-4	-10000	4	-28	0	48%	-0.03	26.6	1.1%	0	0.6	46	0
23	Jul_19_2012	29.61	28.93	29	29.04			29.44(0.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	5	-10000	12	-17	0	46%	-0.07	21.7	1.11%	0	1.1	67	0
24	Jul_18_2012	29.63	28.88	29.01	28.84			29.19(1.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	1	-10000	6	-15	0	46%	-0.03	10.2	1.11%	0	0.6	67	0
25	Jul_17_2012	29.64	28.85	29.05	28.74			28.85(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-4	-10000	-4	-4	0	44%		1.2	1.1%	0	0	64	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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