Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Dec. 2, 2011

Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Sep. 29, 2011 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF)
XAR latest price $27.6000 (-0.4%) ($27.6000 - $27.6000) on Fri. Dec. 2, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.85% (three month average)
RSI   45
Latest Price   $27.6000(-0.4%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XAR advances 1.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XAR declines -0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XAR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(77%)    SPY(74%)    PEJ(71%)    XLY(71%)    XLK(66%)
Factors Impacting XAR price   XAR will decline at least -0.925% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-24%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-4%)    TIP(1%)    GLD(2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.925% (StdDev 1.85%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $27.15(1.66%)
10 Day Moving Average   $26.71(3.33%)
20 Day Moving Average   $27.11(1.81%)
To recent high   -1.8%
To recent low   13%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XAR price fluctuates within 2.58% (three month std-dev: 1.85%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120102

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_2_2011	26.52		26.71	27.15			27.6(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	9	-10000	15	-11	0	62%	0.08	-6.6	1.85%	0	0.7	45	0
2	Dec_1_2011	26.5	27.11	26.63	26.77			27.71(0.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	2	-10000	16	-39	0	62%	0.11	-24	1.86%	0	0.9	54	0
3	Nov_30_2011	26.47	27.07	26.63	26.37			27.51(3.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.7	-9	-10000	9	-64	0	62%	0.08	-41.6	1.88%	0	0.6	53	0
4	Nov_29_2011	26.45	27.01	26.6	26.14			26.51(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-21	-10000	1	-88	0.02	59%	0	-56.3	1.82%	0	-0.7	32	0
5	Nov_28_2011	26.45	27.07	26.72	26.11			26.41(2.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-27	-10000	-5	-93	0.07	59%	0	-47	1.85%	0	-0.9	34	0

6	Nov_25_2011	26.45	27.15	26.85	26.22			25.72(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.7	-30	-10000	-10	-89	0	56%	-0.04	-31.2	1.82%	0	-2	26	0
7	Nov_23_2011	26.46	27.28	27.01	26.46			25.72(-2.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-32	-10000	-15	-81	0	56%	-0.08	-11.6	1.85%	0	-2.4	26	0
8	Nov_22_2011	26.48	27.36	27.17	26.84			26.35(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.9	-22	-10000	-11	-54	0	60%	-0.04	13.4	1.83%	0	-1.8	47	0
9	Nov_21_2011	26.49	27.41	27.34	27.12			26.35(-2.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-13	-10000	-11	-18	0	60%	0	34.6	1.85%	0	-1.9	55	0
10	Nov_18_2011	26.49	27.42	27.49	27.41			26.95(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-5	-10000	-7	2	0	63%	0.04	49.8	1.83%	0	-0.8	43	0

11	Nov_17_2011	26.48	27.38	27.56	27.58			26.95(-2.32%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	1	-10000	-2	11	0.01	63%	0.08	59.4	1.86%	0	-0.7	42	0
12	Nov_16_2011	26.46	27.35	27.65	27.63			27.59(-0.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	6	-10000	3	13	0.01	68%	0.11	63.5	1.83%	0	0.3	45	0
13	Nov_15_2011	26.43	27.28	27.59	27.55			27.78(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	-1	-10000	-2	3	0	68%	0.15	64.2	1.85%	0	0.7	56	0
14	Nov_14_2011	26.39	27.22	27.59	27.55			27.78(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-1	-10000	0	-4	0	68%	0.15	69.6	1.88%	0	0.7	54	0
15	Nov_11_2011	26.35	27.13	27.45	27.59			27.79(2.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	4	-10000	1	14	0.01	68%	0.19	68.2	1.91%	0	0.8	63	0

16	Nov_10_2011	26.3	27.01	27.46	27.56			27.21(0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	5	-10000	-4	30	0	65%	0.11	63.5	1.91%	0	0.2	60	0
17	Nov_9_2011	26.27	26.92	27.46	27.67			27.18(-2.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	17	-10000	2	60	0.03	65%	0.11	63.6	1.95%	0	0.3	60	0
18	Nov_8_2011	26.24	26.83	27.55	27.61			27.97(0.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	28	-10000	13	74	0	72%	0.23	62.7	1.89%	0	1.2	67	0
19	Nov_7_2011	26.18	26.7	27.49	27.28			27.79(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	15	-10000	-0	58	0	72%	0.23	57.8	1.92%	0	1.1	62	0
20	Nov_4_2011	26.12	26.58	27.33	27.29			27.67(-0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	13	-10000	-3	61	0.01	72%	0.23	61	1.96%	0	1.1	65	0

21	Nov_3_2011	26.06	26.46	27.19	27.36			27.73(3.09%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	17	-10000	-3	75	0.05	72%	0.27	66.2	1.99%	0	1.3	69	0
22	Nov_2_2011	25.99	26.34	27.03	27.44			26.9(2.24%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	22	-10000	-2	93	0.01	68%	0.15	69.6	1.96%	0	0.6	66	0
23	Nov_1_2011	25.95	26.23	26.96	27.48			26.31(-5.53%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	20	-10000	-8	104	0.02	65%	0.04	0	1.96%	0	0.1	63	0
24	Oct_31_2011	25.94	26.15	26.99	27.7			27.85(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	57	-10000	16	178	0.04	84%	0.35	0	1.56%	0	1.6	82	0
25	Oct_28_2011	25.85	25.99	26.79	27.35			28.03(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	54	-10000	18	160	0	84%		0	1.58%	0	2	85	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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