Trading Signals: ULTA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Mar. 1, 2016

Trading Signals: ULTA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Ulta Beauty Inc)
ULTA latest price $168.4100 (1.95%) ($164.2000 - $168.6500) on Tue. Mar. 1, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.47% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $168.4100(1.95%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ULTA advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ULTA advances 3.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ULTA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(56%)    XLY(54%)    XRT(54%)    IWD(53%)    IWM(53%)
Factors Impacting ULTA price   ULTA will decline at least -1.235% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-16%)    UUP(-12%)    TLT(-11%)    GDXJ(-3%)    IPO(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.235% (StdDev 2.47%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $164.67(2.27%)
10 Day Moving Average   $160.52(4.92%)
20 Day Moving Average   $160.62(4.85%)
To recent high   -10.1%
To recent low   12.2%
Market Cap   $9.484b

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a beauty retailer of cosmetics, fragrance, skin care products, hair care products, and salon services. It provides unmatched product breadth, value and convenience in a distinctive specialty retail environment. The company was founded in January 9, 1990 and is headquartered in Bolingbrook, IL.

$. ULTA price fluctuates within 4.4% (three month std-dev: 2.47%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160401

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_1_2016	172.11	160.62	160.52	164.67			168.41(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	27	-10000	9	80	1.05	50%	0.01	-38.9	2.47%	0	1.1	73	0
2	Feb_29_2016	172.09	161.07	159.49	162.82			165.19(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	25	-10000	9	71	1.18	48%	-0.01	-37.6	2.46%	0	0.5	63	0
3	Feb_26_2016	172.1	161.75	158.76	161.04			164.75(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	26	-10000	15	57	1.21	48%	0.01	-38.3	2.46%	0	0.3	55	0
4	Feb_25_2016	172.09	162.15	157.59	158.1			164.25(2.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	10	-10000	10	9	1.41	48%	-0.01	-46.3	2.48%	0	0.2	43	0
5	Feb_24_2016	172.1	162.56	156.51	156.16			160.75(0.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-8	-10000	2	-38	1.25	48%	-0.03	-50.7	2.46%	0	-0.2	36	0

6	Feb_23_2016	172.15	163.41	155.62	155.8			159.17(1.86%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-19	-10000	0	-77	1.92	48%	-0.05	-47.8	2.46%	0	-0.4	31	0
7	Feb_22_2016	172.24	164.2	155.2	155.77			156.27(4.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-30	-10000	-2	-114	1.57	48%	-0.06	-45.2	2.45%	0	-0.7	26	0
8	Feb_19_2016	172.34	165.34	155.48	156.21			150.07(-2.9%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-38	-10000	-3	-141	2.83	48%	-0.09	-42.7	2.44%	0	-1.4	17	0
9	Feb_18_2016	172.5	166.7	157.3	156.86			154.55(-2.75%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-35	-10000	1	-144	3.67	50%	-0.05	-44.3	2.41%	0	-1.1	30	0
10	Feb_17_2016	172.59	167.72	159.06	156.72			158.92(-0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-31	-10000	7	-146	1.44	55%	-0.02	-51.1	2.39%	0	-0.9	34	0

11	Feb_16_2016	172.62	168.56	160.7	155.33			159.02(0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-37	-10000	4	-161	0.97	57%	-0.01	-58.7	2.41%	0	-0.9	30	0
12	Feb_12_2016	172.64	169.18	162.69	154.59			158.49(3.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-39	-10000	-1	-151	1.07	49%	-0.06	-67.8	2.63%	0	-1.1	35	0
13	Feb_11_2016	172.74	170.17	164.84	154.84			153.31(-0.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-50	-10000	-15	-156	1.2	45%	-0.09	-71.3	2.6%	0	-1.7	26	0
14	Feb_10_2016	172.89	171.52	167	157.95			153.84(1.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-49	-10000	-19	-139	1.44	45%	-0.08	-70.7	2.61%	0	-2	31	0
15	Feb_9_2016	173.02	173.14	169.12	161.87			151.98(-2.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-46	-10000	-23	-115	1.79	45%	-0.1	-62.4	2.61%	0	-2.5	32	0

16	Feb_8_2016	173.19	174.72	171.95	166.88			155.34(-2.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-37	-10000	-23	-77	1.89	45%	-0.07	-56.7	2.6%	0	-2.8	33	0
17	Feb_5_2016	173.31	176.14	174.16	171.93			159.71(-5.43%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-23	-10000	-19	-34	2.37	47%	-0.05	-50.5	2.58%	0	-3	43	0
18	Feb_4_2016	173.4	177.37	176.28	176.22			168.88(-2.64%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.7	-3	-10000	-5	5	1.3	50%	0.03	-42.2	2.49%	0	-2	43	0
19	Feb_3_2016	173.35	178.1	177.14	177.31			173.46(-2.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1	3	-10000	-0	13	1.07	53%	0.05	-40.8	2.48%	0	-1.2	45	0
20	Feb_2_2016	173.26	178.57	177.29	177.41			177.03(-1.96%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-2	-10000	-2	-1	0.65	53%	0.09	-43.7	2.46%	0	-0.4	41	0

21	Feb_1_2016	173.11	178.8	177.14	177.83			180.57(-0.33%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	2	-10000	4	-4	0.75	53%	0.09	-44.2	2.45%	0	0.5	48	0
22	Jan_29_2016	172.95	178.98	176.15	176.85			181.17(3.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-6	-10000	1	-27	1.05	53%	0.1	-52	2.45%	0	0.6	48	0
23	Jan_28_2016	172.78	179.16	175.74	176.56			174.34(0.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-11	-10000	-2	-38	0.76	51%	0.06	-52.4	2.4%	0	-1.2	41	0
24	Jan_27_2016	172.67	179.7	176.2	176.99			173.93(-2.9%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-10	-10000	-0	-40	0.81	51%	0.05	-50.2	2.42%	0	-1.4	40	0
25	Jan_26_2016	172.58	180.25	177.3	177.06			179.13(1.98%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-6	-10000	4	-35	0.82	56%		-50.9	2.39%	0	-0.3	45	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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