Trading Signals: ULTA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Oct. 20, 2014

Trading Signals: ULTA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Ulta Beauty Inc)
ULTA latest price $119.8700 (2.83%) ($116.0800 - $120.0800) on Mon. Oct. 20, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.57% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $119.8700(2.83%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ULTA advances 1.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ULTA declines -0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ULTA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(56%)    XLY(55%)    XRT(55%)    IWM(53%)    VT(52%)
Factors Impacting ULTA price   ULTA will decline at least -1.285% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-19%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-8%)    IGOV(-4%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.285% (StdDev 2.57%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $114.51(4.68%)
10 Day Moving Average   $114.36(4.82%)
20 Day Moving Average   $115.75(3.56%)
To recent high   -0.4%
To recent low   30.2%
Market Cap   $6.75b

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a beauty retailer of cosmetics, fragrance, skin care products, hair care products, and salon services. It provides unmatched product breadth, value and convenience in a distinctive specialty retail environment. The company was founded in January 9, 1990 and is headquartered in Bolingbrook, IL.

$. ULTA price fluctuates within 2.25% (three month std-dev: 2.57%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_20_2014	99.88	115.75	114.36	114.51			119.87(2.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	2.1	4	-10000	9	-12	1.03	93%	0.35	-36.9	2.57%	0	1.6	51	0
2	Oct_17_2014	99.53	115.67	113.88	113.17			116.57(2.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.3	-6	-10000	3	-34	1.14	92%	0.32	-43.2	2.55%	0	0.3	43	0
3	Oct_16_2014	99.21	115.83	113.79	112.7			113.85(3.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-13	-10000	-1	-47	1.73	92%	0.29	-38.6	2.54%	0	-0.7	34	0
4	Oct_15_2014	98.92	116.05	113.92	112.88			110.28(-1.5%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-18	-10000	-6	-54	1.67	91%	0.23	-3	2.53%	0	-2.1	18	0
5	Oct_14_2014	98.69	116.49	114.51	113.8			111.96(-1.07%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-15	-10000	-2	-52	1.27	91%	0.13	50	2.52%	0	-1.9	18	0

6	Oct_13_2014	98.56	116.73	115.12	114.09			113.17(-0.92%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-15	-10000	-4	-46	0.92	91%	0.3	100	2.51%	0	-1.7	44	0
7	Oct_10_2014	98.27	116.82	115.63	114.66			114.22(-0.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-13	-10000	-3	-41	0.7	91%	0.31	152	2.52%	0	-1.3	38	0
8	Oct_9_2014	97.97	116.88	116.06	115.05			114.77(-0.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-11	-10000	-1	-40	0.75	91%	0.31	87.2	2.53%	0	-0.5	36	0
9	Oct_8_2014	97.67	116.13	116.46	115.16			114.87(1.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-10	-10000	-1	-38	0.69	91%	0.31	64.5	2.53%	0	-0.2	43	0
10	Oct_7_2014	97.37	115.34	117	115.35			113.42(-2.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-14	-10000	-6	-36	0.86	91%	0.29	54.7	2.53%	0	-0.3	39	0

11	Oct_6_2014	97.09	114.62	117.32	116.3			116(-0.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-9	-10000	-3	-25	0.63	91%	0.29	52.8	2.52%	0	0.2	52	0
12	Oct_3_2014	96.81	113.8	117.61	116.77			116.2(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-5	-10000	-3	-12	1.42	91%	0.31	52.3	2.53%	0	0.3	57	0
13	Oct_2_2014	96.51	113.02	118.02	117.26			115.31(-0.45%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-3	-10000	-5	3	0.85	91%	0.3	53	2.54%	0	0.3	54	0
14	Oct_1_2014	96.22	112.29	118.36	117.97			115.83(-1.98%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	8	-10000	-6	49	0.87	91%	0.29	54.6	2.54%	0	0.4	80	0
15	Sep_30_2014	95.94	111.5	118.66	118.88			118.17(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	29	-10000	3	107	0.74	91%	0.3	57.1	2.53%	0	0.7	84	0

16	Sep_29_2014	95.65	110.53	118.49	118.46			118.32(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	34	-10000	-1	140	0.77	91%	0.33	56.5	2.54%	0	0.8	84	0
17	Sep_26_2014	95.34	109.5	118.14	118.58			118.65(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	43	-10000	-2	179	0.73	91%	0.35	56.5	2.54%	0	0.9	81	0
18	Sep_25_2014	95.01	108.46	117.78	118.92			118.86(-1.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	56	-10000	1	222	0.81	91%	0.37	59.1	2.55%	0	1	78	0
19	Sep_24_2014	94.66	107.42	115.83	118.83			120.41(3.76%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	59	-10000	3	227	0.96	91%	0.36	60.6	2.55%	0	1.3	80	0
20	Sep_23_2014	94.32	106.25	113.6	118.45			116.05(-2.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	57	-10000	-0	228	1.1	89%	0.3	63.2	2.52%	0	1	78	0

21	Sep_22_2014	94.04	105.3	111.82	118.47			118.92(-1.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	65	-10000	6	240	1.01	89%	0.33	66.5	2.49%	0	1.5	84	0
22	Sep_19_2014	93.73	104.17	109.77	117.57			120.38(1.67%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	66	-10000	8	240	1.46	89%	0.37	70	2.49%	0	1.8	88	0
23	Sep_18_2014	93.38	102.9	107.64	116.47			118.4(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	84	-10000	30	247	0.7	89%	0.34	74.1	2.48%	0	1.9	85	0
24	Sep_17_2014	93.06	101.79	105.7	112.29			118.5(2.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	75	-10000	33	199	2.03	89%	0.36	69	2.48%	0	2.3	84	0
25	Sep_16_2014	92.73	100.58	103.67	107.94			116.15(1.52%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.3	59	-10000	30	145	1.62	89%		62.3	2.47%	0	2.5	84	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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