Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Apr. 1, 2013

Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - Mon. Jul. 13, 2020)

(VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN)
UGAZ latest price $395000.0000 (1.54%) ($375625.0000 - $397875.0000) on Mon. Apr. 1, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.78% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $395000.0000(1.54%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   UGAZ advances 1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   UGAZ advances 8.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support UGAZ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
USO(3%)    EMHY(2%)    EWJ(2%)    OIH(2%)    PCY(2%)
Factors Impacting UGAZ price   UGAZ will decline at least -2.89% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-5%)    XLP(-3%)    TIP(-2%)    REMX(-2%)    XLY(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.89% (StdDev 5.78%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 5%

5 Day Moving Average   $386650(2.16%)
10 Day Moving Average   $381008.67(3.67%)
20 Day Moving Average   $344640.47(14.61%)
To recent high   -3.7%
To recent low   83.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.03%

$. UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.03% a day on average for holding it.$. UGAZ price fluctuates within 12.9% (three month std-dev: 5.78%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130501

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_1_2013	267118.5	344640.47	381008.67	386650			395000(1.54%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	25	-10000	3	90	0	100%	-0.47	77.3	5.78%	0	1.1	77	0
2	Mar_28_2013	268376.38	338124.99	377106.74	382849.75			389000(-5.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	27	-10000	3	100	0	100%	-0.04	74.4	5.9%	0	1.1	77	0
3	Mar_27_2013	268477.95	332111.59	373238.06	379674.75			410250(7.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	34	-10000	6	118	0	100%	-0	76.1	5.87%	0	1.6	85	0
4	Mar_26_2013	268483.15	324202.2	363622.12	373249.75			382750(7.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	31	-10000	-0	125	0	100%	-0.05	77.9	5.81%	0	1.3	86	0
5	Mar_25_2013	268619.87	318003.65	355838.05	373399.75			356250(-5.25%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	34	-10000	-1	140	0	100%	-0.13	83.9	5.75%	0	0.8	77	0

6	Mar_22_2013	268976.54	313383.49	351014.15	374224.75			375998.75(0.77%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	43	-10000	4	158	0	100%	1.44	88.3	5.79%	0	1.3	83	0
7	Mar_21_2013	265145.86	306379.2	343735.99	370075			373125(-1.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	45	-10000	4	169	0	100%	1.43	88.4	5.83%	0	1.4	85	0
8	Mar_20_2013	261408.91	299138.87	335422.8	365275			378125(-1.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	55	-10000	13	179	0	100%	0.47	86.3	5.83%	0	1.7	83	0
9	Mar_19_2013	260180.32	291824.93	324437.09	352200			383500(6.42%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	53	-10000	16	162	0	100%	0.51	81.8	5.94%	0	2.1	87	0
10	Mar_18_2013	258868.41	284087.15	313517.31	335750			360375(1.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	44	-10000	12	139	0	100%	1.4	77.5	5.93%	0	2	81	0

11	Mar_15_2013	255288.66	276706.83	305102.47	324300			355250(1.75%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	41	-10000	12	126	0	100%	1.32	68.7	5.9%	0	2.1	78	0
12	Mar_14_2013	251958.9	269643.99	295607.53	313600			349125(11.63%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	40	-10000	14	117	0	100%	1.3	61	5.95%	0	2.3	82	0
13	Mar_13_2013	248718.25	264004.69	287079.51	301475			312750(3.82%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	36	-10000	11	112	0	100%	1.03	53.2	5.78%	0	1.7	81	0
14	Mar_12_2013	246186.37	259950.69	281154.79	292350			301250(-0.62%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	29	-10000	6	99	0	100%	1.12	40.2	5.79%	0	1.5	75	0
15	Mar_11_2013	243465.66	256825.27	276918.25	287550			303125(0.46%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	30	-10000	6	102	0	100%	0.86	35.7	5.79%	0	1.8	76	0

16	Mar_8_2013	241379.26	253383.49	272717.43	282700			301750(4.59%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	36	-10000	10	113	0	100%	0.9	31.4	5.87%	0	2.1	80	0
17	Mar_7_2013	239237	250323.69	266104.8	274850.25			288500(8%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	30	-10000	5	104	0	100%	1.01	22.7	5.89%	0	1.9	76	0
18	Mar_6_2013	236855.39	249493.78	260189.97	270725.25			267125(-3.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	25	-10000	3	91	0	100%	0.98	23.5	5.87%	0	0.9	59	0
19	Mar_5_2013	234549.57	249549.66	257113.6	268000.25			277250(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	-10000	5	88	0	100%	1.04	27	5.86%	0	1.4	64	0
20	Mar_4_2013	232130.73	248098.34	252741.35	264425.25			278875(6.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	22	-10000	4	76	0	100%	0.89	24.1	6.05%	0	1.7	61	0

21	Mar_1_2013	230081.56	246335.24	246379.54	261275.25			262501.25(-2.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	21	-10000	7	64	0	0%	0.71	9.6	5.97%	0	0.9	59	0
22	Feb_28_2013	228457.91	245843.11	241937.64	255900			267875(5.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	18	-10000	10	42	0	100%	1	-8.8	6.15%	0	1.3	57	0
23	Feb_27_2013	226197.31	245041.66	239125.83	248025.01			253500.02(-2.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	0	-10000	0	0	0	100%	0.95	-37.7	232.63%	0	0.5	42	0
24	Feb_26_2013	224072.34	244358.57	237093.96	244300.01			259375(-1.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	0	-10000	0	-0	0	100%	1.12	-63	232.64%	0	0.9	46	0
25	Feb_25_2013	221580.35	243703.95	235026.65	239200			263125(11.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	1.5	-0	-10000	0	-1	0	100%		-90.8	232.95%	0	1.2	54	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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