Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Mar. 11, 2013

Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - Mon. Jul. 13, 2020)

(VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN)
UGAZ latest price $303125.0000 (0.46%) ($293876.2500 - $305500.0000) on Mon. Mar. 11, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.79% (three month average)
RSI   76
Latest Price   $303125.0000(0.46%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   UGAZ advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   UGAZ advances 9.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support UGAZ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
USO(3%)    EMHY(2%)    EWJ(2%)    OIH(2%)    PCY(2%)
Factors Impacting UGAZ price   UGAZ will decline at least -2.895% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-5%)    XLP(-3%)    TIP(-2%)    REMX(-2%)    XLY(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.895% (StdDev 5.79%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $287550(5.42%)
10 Day Moving Average   $276918.25(9.46%)
20 Day Moving Average   $256825.27(18.03%)
To recent high   -4.5%
To recent low   41.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.03%

$. UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.03% a day on average for holding it.$. UGAZ price fluctuates within 9.86% (three month std-dev: 5.79%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130411

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_11_2013	243465.66	256825.27	276918.25	287550			303125(0.46%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	30	-10000	6	102	0	100%	0.86	35.7	5.79%	0	1.8	76	0
2	Mar_8_2013	241379.26	253383.49	272717.43	282700			301750(4.59%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	36	-10000	10	113	0	100%	0.9	31.4	5.87%	0	2.1	80	0
3	Mar_7_2013	239237	250323.69	266104.8	274850.25			288500(8%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	30	-10000	5	104	0	100%	1.01	22.7	5.89%	0	1.9	76	0
4	Mar_6_2013	236855.39	249493.78	260189.97	270725.25			267125(-3.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	25	-10000	3	91	0	100%	0.98	23.5	5.87%	0	0.9	59	0
5	Mar_5_2013	234549.57	249549.66	257113.6	268000.25			277250(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	-10000	5	88	0	100%	1.04	27	5.86%	0	1.4	64	0

6	Mar_4_2013	232130.73	248098.34	252741.35	264425.25			278875(6.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	22	-10000	4	76	0	100%	0.89	24.1	6.05%	0	1.7	61	0
7	Mar_1_2013	230081.56	246335.24	246379.54	261275.25			262501.25(-2.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	21	-10000	7	64	0	0%	0.71	9.6	5.97%	0	0.9	59	0
8	Feb_28_2013	228457.91	245843.11	241937.64	255900			267875(5.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	18	-10000	10	42	0	100%	1	-8.8	6.15%	0	1.3	57	0
9	Feb_27_2013	226197.31	245041.66	239125.83	248025.01			253500.02(-2.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	0	-10000	0	0	0	100%	0.95	-37.7	232.63%	0	0.5	42	0
10	Feb_26_2013	224072.34	244358.57	237093.96	244300.01			259375(-1.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	0	-10000	0	-0	0	100%	1.12	-63	232.64%	0	0.9	46	0

11	Feb_25_2013	221580.35	243703.95	235026.65	239200			263125(11.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	1.5	-0	-10000	0	-1	0	100%	1.18	-90.8	232.95%	0	1.2	54	0
12	Feb_22_2013	218985.97	244702.36	232140.39	229550			235625(3.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-1	-10000	0	-2	0	100%	1.02	-93.3	232.96%	0	-0.5	48	0
13	Feb_21_2013	216770.58	247322.94	232968.41	225900			228500.02(-2.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-1	-10000	-0	-2	0	100%	0.98	-85.9	234.84%	0	-0.9	43	0
14	Feb_20_2013	214673.54	251317.48	237680.77	228850			234875.02(0.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-0	-10000	0	-1	0	100%	0.81	-65.9	234.84%	0	-0.7	45	0
15	Feb_19_2013	212952.83	254986.12	241182.69	228799.99			233874.98(8.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	100%	-0.16	-53.4	236.49%	0	-0.8	51	0

16	Feb_15_2013	213296.78	258971.62	242976.65	230425			214875(-1.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	100%	-0.96	-40.2	328.91%	0	-1.5	42	0
17	Feb_14_2013	215358.63	263106.91	246522.69	235050			217375(-10.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	100%	-0.78	-28.5	329.4%	0	-1.6	33	0
18	Feb_13_2013	217058.63	266546.17	250614.17	240700			243249.98(3.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	100%	-0.53	-15	329.31%	0	-0.9	37	0
19	Feb_12_2013	218213.89	268602.77	251877.9	247975			234625(-3.05%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	100%	-0.46	-0.9	329.83%	0	-1.3	30	0
20	Feb_11_2013	219232.31	270524.97	252772.13	255625			242000(1.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	100%	-0.45	11	329.8%	0	-1.1	31	0

21	Feb_8_2013	220231	271567.89	253584.22	257575			238000.02(-3.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	100%	-0.35	14.9	329.83%	0	-1.4	29	0
22	Feb_7_2013	221000.73	271606.6	258620.75	259399.75			245625(-12.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	100%	-0.3	16.4	329.82%	0	-1	39	0
23	Feb_6_2013	221662.57	270650.62	263063.61	261374.75			279625(2.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-0	-10000	0	-1	0	100%	-0.13	12.9	329.79%	0	0.3	51	0
24	Feb_5_2013	221959.94	268833.67	265700.42	256524.75			272875(8.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-0	-10000	0	-1	0	100%	-0.25	2.6	329.78%	0	0.1	49	0
25	Feb_4_2013	222527.05	267774.93	269133.1	249999.74			251750(1.87%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-0	-10000	0	-1	0	100%		-11.4	329.8%	0	-0.6	48	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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