Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Sep. 14, 2012

Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - Mon. Jul. 13, 2020)

(VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN)
UGAZ latest price $351000.0000 (-5.49%) ($336375.0000 - $362500.0000) on Fri. Sep. 14, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   259.62% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $351000.0000(-5.49%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   UGAZ advances 5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   UGAZ advances 15.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support UGAZ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(1%)    EWJ(1%)    JNK(1%)    PCY(1%)    USO(1%)
Factors Impacting UGAZ price   UGAZ will decline at least -129.81% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-7%)    REMX(-3%)    IGOV(-3%)    EWI(-3%)    XLP(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -129.81% (StdDev 259.62%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $354375(-0.95%)
10 Day Moving Average   $326576.1(7.48%)
20 Day Moving Average   $310717.26(12.96%)
To recent high   -17.6%
To recent low   5195.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -67.4%

$. UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 67.4% a day on average for holding it.$. UGAZ price fluctuates within 11.42% (three month std-dev: 259.62%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20121014

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_14_2012	296776.42	310717.26	326576.1	354375			351000(-5.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	1	-10000	0	3	0	93%	0.46	37.9	259.62%	0	1.1	63	0
2	Sep_13_2012	295421.82	307710.56	320337.64	337650			371375(-3.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	1	-10000	0	2	0	93%	0.48	15.7	259.55%	0	1.9	56	0
3	Sep_12_2012	294021.06	304083.63	309852.47	321800			383250(6.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	0	-10000	0	1	0	93%	0.63	-6.7	259.55%	0	2.6	56	0
4	Sep_11_2012	292168	300725.82	296367.03	305275			360125(17.64%)	N/A	N/A	0	2.1	0	-10000	0	0	0	93%	0.51	-34.5	259.56%	0	2.3	56	0
5	Sep_10_2012	290689.55	297464.29	286255.06	296550			306125(14.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-0	-10000	0	-1	0	93%	0.42	-63.3	259.63%	0	0.4	50	0

6	Sep_7_2012	289476.54	297827.14	283729.79	295500			267375(-8.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	92%	0.3	-71.2	259.66%	0	-1.4	45	0
7	Sep_6_2012	288615.57	302422.03	289270.72	299650			292125(-2.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	0	-10000	0	-0	0	92%	0.34	-61	259.69%	0	-0.4	51	0
8	Sep_5_2012	287628.33	306175	292986.38	294800			300625(-5.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	0	-10000	0	-0	0	92%	0.36	-10.5	259.68%	0	-0.2	50	0
9	Sep_4_2012	286584.96	309912.43	294647.65	285050			316500(5.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.9	-0	-10000	0	-1	0	92%	0.62	24.3	259.67%	0	0.2	47	0
10	Aug_31_2012	284817.69	312020.51	293616.61	274500.25			300875(4.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-0	-10000	0	-1	0	92%	0.32	55.2	257.73%	0	-0.3	51	0

11	Aug_30_2012	283921.22	314574.1	293444.63	270950.25			288125(7.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-1	-10000	-0	-2	0	92%	0.27	41.1	257.75%	0	-0.7	45	0
12	Aug_29_2012	283163.64	318523.41	294115.24	278325.25			267875(6.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-1	-10000	-0	-2	0	92%	0.14	52.7	257.79%	0	-0.7	33	0
13	Aug_28_2012	282755.81	309276.94	298172.39	291575.25			251875(-4.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-1	-10000	-0	-2	0	92%	-0.02	52.1	257.84%	0	-0.7	28	0
14	Aug_27_2012	282818.94	302010.24	306055.91	305375.25			263751.25(-6.84%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	92%	-0.07	52.5	259.78%	0	-0.4	28	0
15	Aug_24_2012	283013.51	293530.7	310432.42	314675			283125(-12.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	92%	0.12	57.3	259.79%	0	-0.1	35	0

16	Aug_23_2012	282671.67	299998.12	314016.48	318150			325000(-2.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-1	-10000	0	-2	0	92%	0.21	75.2	259.78%	0	0.2	44	0
17	Aug_22_2012	282080.06	286072.31	317135.99	311950			334125(4.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-1	-10000	0	-2	0	92%	0.19	45.8	259.77%	0	0.4	43	0
18	Aug_21_2012	281543.07	270848.16	320294.78	306375			320875(3.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	0	-10000	-0	-0	0	92%	0.17	25.7	259.76%	0	0.4	96	0
19	Aug_20_2012	281064.76	258235.41	325858.24	307775			310250(3.24%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	1	-10000	0	2	0	92%	0.18	14.3	259.8%	0	0.4	91	0
20	Aug_17_2012	280567.3	244970.86	331159.89	306100			300500(2.21%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0	1	-10000	-0	4	0	92%	0.09	3.3	259.79%	0	0.4	91	0

21	Aug_16_2012	280313.47	231744.26	336762.09	309250			294000(-4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	1	-10000	-0	4	0	92%	-0.13	-6	259.79%	0	0.4	81	0
22	Aug_15_2012	280674.44	236484.37	344529.95	322925			306250(-6.6%)	UT	HoldLong	50	-0.1	2	-10000	-0	8	0	92%	-0.11	-2.4	259.75%	0	0.4	95	0
23	Aug_14_2012	280975.46	239489.54	322154.14	336325			327875(8.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0.1	3	-10000	-0	11	0	92%	-0.05	0.7	259.71%	0	0.6	95	0
24	Aug_13_2012	281128.01	238946.78	299220.38	347250			301875(-4.55%)	TP	CloseLong	-10	-0.3	4	-10000	-0	14	0	92%	-0.26	3.1	259.76%	0	0.4	92	0
25	Aug_10_2012	281855.05	239995.04	277734.45	359850			316250(-12.73%)	UT	HoldLong	50	-0.3	5	-10000	-0	20	0	92%		4.3	259.74%	0	0.5	93	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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