Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ TLT: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Nov. 17, 2020

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jan. 15, 2021)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $158.8250 (0.66%) ($158.5900 - $159.1600) on Tue. Nov. 17, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Uptrend Reversal
Trend Narrative   Rebound
Average Daily Price Swing   $1.63 (1.03% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.79% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0% (StdDev 0.79%)
Daily Moving Force   0.4%
Trend   -0.08%
Latest Price   $158.8250(0.66%)
Forecasted Low Price   158.51(-0.2%)
Forecasted High Price   159.78(0.6%)
Direction of Next Movement   Higher(0.7%)
Hourly Trend 0.2% [$158.36(0.33), $158.22(0.82)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   7
Intraday Reversal Probability   There's a high probability the price will reverse sharply to downside intraday or next day..
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT declines -0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0.3% a week (84% probability)
BND(91%)    BNDX(75%)    LQD(75%)    VCIT(70%)    TIP(65%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will advance at least -0% in a week (67% probabilities).
XLF(-55%)    IWN(-50%)    VYM(-48%)    SDY(-48%)    OIH(-47%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Buy the rebound

Valuation to SPY -1.2

Relative Volatility -0.5 (options are faily valued)

Market Trend Strength   0.3% (StdDev 0.79%)
Hourly BBV 4.5 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

Next Day Open Price   $158.86(0.02%)
5 Day Moving Average   $157.78(0.66%)
10 Day Moving Average   $158.17(0.41%)
20 Day Moving Average   $158.45(0.24%)
To recent high   -4.4%
To recent low   2.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.03% (three month std-dev: 0.79% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. TLT price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20201217

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Nov_17_2020	158.45 (-0.5%)	158.17 (-0.3%)	157.78 (0.5%)	158.22	158.36(0%)	158.83(0.66%)	158.59-159.16	0.2(0.2)	4.5	0.4%	0%	0%	-0.08%	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(0.4%)	7	44	1.3	-1.2	1.8	Rebound	158.64(-0.12%)	158.58-158.67	7.44	-4.4%-2.3%
2	Nov_16_2020	158.47 (-0.7%)	158.05 (-0.7%)	157.06 (0.2%)	157.4	158.03(0%)	157.79(-0.24%)	157.61-158.28	-0.3(-0.4)	3.3	0.2%	-0.1%	0%	-0.14%	Downtrend Consolidation Downtrend Pop	Range(0.2%)	6	42	1.4	-1.7	1.9	Downtrend	157.41(-0.24%)	157.2-157.92	6.31	-5.1%-1.6%
3	Nov_13_2020	158.61 (-0.7%)	158.12 (-0.8%)	156.73 (-0.2%)	156.75	158.08(0%)	158.17(-0.14%)	157.91-158.5	-0.2(-0.2)	0.9	0.5%	-0%	0%	-0.18%	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(0.6%)	5	47	1.4	-1.5	1.1	Downtrend	157.62(-0.35%)	157.37-158.21	7.37	-4.8%-1.9%
4	Nov_12_2020	158.76 (-0.6%)	158.07 (-0.7%)	156.99 (-0.4%)	156.14	156.78(0%)	158.38(1.7%)	156.71-158.4	-0.1(-0.2)	0.6	0.3%	-0.1%	0%	-0.16%	Uptrend Reversal	Range(0.2%)	4	52	1.5	-1.1	0.7	Downtrend Pop	158.25(-0.08%)	158.38-157.95	16	-4.7%-2%
5	Nov_11_2020	158.92 (-0.4%)	158.14 (-0.4%)	157.59 (-0.7%)	156.52	155.43(0%)	155.74(0.33%)	154.97-155.94	-1.3(-1.6)	-8.2	-0.4%	-0.3%	0%	-0.1%	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.7%)	4	49	1.6	-2	1.3	Relative Oversold	156.08(0.22%)	154.71-157.22	5.89	-6.8%-0.3%

6	Nov_10_2020	159.24 (-0.2%)	158.64 (-0%)	158.65 (-0.3%)	157.93	155.51(0%)	155.24(-0.56%)	154.78-155.81	-1.8(-2.1)	-1.6	-1%	-0.3%	0%	-0.02%	Oversold	Lower(-1%)	5	43	1.5	-2.2	0.7	Oversold	156.28(0.67%)	155.15-156.56	12.72	-8.2%-0%
7	Nov_9_2020	159.58 (-0.1%)	159.19 (0.2%)	159.14 (-0.3%)	159.42	157.6(0%)	156.11(-2.11%)	154.63-156.15	-1.9(-2)	-1.2	-1%	-0.2%	0%	0.02%	Oversold	Range(-0.1%)	6	43	1.4	-2.4	-0.4	Oversold	157.11(0.64%)	156.11-157.36	23.23	-7.7%-0%
8	Nov_6_2020	159.82 (-0%)	159.56 (0.3%)	159.63 (0.2%)	159.88	160.36(0%)	159.47(-1.18%)	158.94-159.92	-0.3(-0.2)	-0.6	-0.2%	0.1%	0%	0.04%	N/A	Higher(0.5%)	7	46	1.3	-1.4	1.9	Uptrend Reversal	159.95(0.3%)	159.55-160.22	12.41	-6.7%-1.6%
9	Nov_5_2020	159.85 (-0.2%)	159.43 (-0%)	159.25 (0.3%)	159.68	161.24(0%)	161.37(0.18%)	160.58-161.74	0.8(1)	0.9	0.8%	0.2%	0%	-0.02%	Confirmed Rebound	Higher(1%)	6	48	1.3	-0.9	0.9	Rebound	160.74(-0.39%)	161.37-160.46	18.53	-5.6%-2.8%
10	Nov_4_2020	159.78 (-0.4%)	158.99 (-0.5%)	158.8 (0%)	158.87	159.4(0%)	161.08(2.17%)	160.54-162.17	0.8(0.9)	1.1	0.5%	0.1%	0%	-0.08%	Confirmed Rebound	Higher(0.6%)	5	46	1.2	0	0.5	After Bottom	160.53(-0.34%)	160.41-160.64	21.6	-6.1%-2.6%

11	Nov_3_2020	159.68 (-0.5%)	158.74 (-0.8%)	158.73 (-0.4%)	158.41	158.12(0%)	157.66(-0.56%)	157.04-157.98	-1.3(-1.4)	-2.2	-0.3%	-0.1%	0%	-0.12%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.1%)	4	33	1.3	0	-1.6	Downtrend	157.36(-0.19%)	157.09-158.02	17.72	-8.1%-0.4%
12	Nov_2_2020	159.83 (-0.6%)	158.91 (-0.8%)	159.31 (-0.1%)	159.21	158.34(0%)	158.55(0.62%)	158.33-159.19	-0.8(-0.9)	-1	-0.2%	-0.1%	0%	-0.12%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	4	37	1.2	1	-2.5	Downtrend	158.28(-0.17%)	158.07-158.75	10.81	-7.6%-1%
13	Oct_30_2020	159.89 (-0.7%)	159.12 (-0.6%)	159.49 (-0.1%)	159.65	158.71(0%)	157.58(-0.98%)	157.57-159.35	-1.4(-1.6)	-1.3	-0.5%	-0.2%	0%	-0.12%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.2%)	4	40	1.3	1.1	-2.2	Downtrend	157.34(-0.15%)	157.07-157.98	13.07	-8.2%-0.4%
14	Oct_29_2020	160.15 (-0.7%)	159.5 (-0.5%)	159.58 (0.3%)	160.02	160.08(0%)	159.15(-0.97%)	158.47-160.83	-0.6(-0.7)	-0.4	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.12%	Growing Downtrend Downtrend Pop	Higher(0.4%)	4	47	1.4	0.9	-2.4	Downtrend	158.9(-0.16%)	158.7-159.34	11.91	-7.2%-1.4%
15	Oct_28_2020	160.35 (-0.8%)	159.75 (-0.6%)	159.14 (0.3%)	159.61	160.6(0%)	160.71(0.09%)	160.2-161.46	0.3(0.2)	3.2	0.4%	-0.1%	0%	-0.12%	Uptrend Reversal	Range(0.3%)	4	52	1.5	1.7	-2.4	Downtrend	160.29(-0.26%)	160.14-160.63	11.76	-6.3%-2.4%

16	Oct_27_2020	160.46 (-0.8%)	159.86 (-0.5%)	158.75 (0.2%)	158.76	159.96(0%)	160.56(0.68%)	159.9-160.7	0.1(0.1)	1.8	0.5%	-0.1%	0%	-0.14%	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(0.4%)	4	56	1.7	0.3	-0.6	Downtrend	160.03(-0.33%)	159.82-160.51	6.05	-6.4%-2.3%
17	Oct_26_2020	160.65 (-0.8%)	159.95 (-0.5%)	158.49 (-0.2%)	158.35	158.62(0%)	159.47(0.93%)	159.01-160.02	-0.5(-0.6)	0	0.3%	-0.1%	0%	-0.14%	Uptrend Reversal	Range(0.2%)	4	46	1.8	-0.1	-0.2	Growing Downtrend	158.96(-0.32%)	158.56-159.67	7.23	-7.1%-1.6%
18	Oct_23_2020	160.89 (-0.7%)	160.06 (-0.3%)	158.76 (-0.4%)	158.33	157.56(0%)	158(0.65%)	156.75-158.21	-1.2(-1.3)	-2.1	-0.4%	-0.2%	0%	-0.12%	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-0.6%)	4	45	2	-1.1	0.8	Downtrend	157.46(-0.34%)	157.03-158.49	8.83	-7.9%-0.6%
19	Oct_22_2020	161.25 (-0.6%)	160.3 (-0.3%)	159.44 (-0.6%)	159.06	158.09(0%)	156.98(-1.1%)	156.97-158.63	-1.8(-1.9)	-4.1	-0.6%	-0.2%	0%	-0.1%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	5	29	2	-1.3	0.6	Oversold	158.11(0.72%)	156.55-158.5	12.16	-8.5%-0%
20	Oct_21_2020	161.66 (-0.5%)	160.66 (-0.2%)	160.42 (-0.4%)	160.1	159.09(0%)	158.73(-0.35%)	158.37-159.37	-1.3(-1.4)	-2.4	-0.5%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.4%)	5	31	1.9	-1	0.1	Downtrend	158.52(-0.13%)	158.22-159.24	10.45	-7.5%-0%

21	Oct_20_2020	161.95 (-0.4%)	160.75 (-0.2%)	161.1 (-0.3%)	160.94	160.02(0%)	159.28(-0.95%)	158.95-160.01	-1.3(-1.3)	-2.7	-0.5%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	N/A	Range(-0.1%)	5	33	1.8	-1	0.2	Downtrend	159.15(-0.08%)	158.89-159.77	11.19	-7.2%-0%
22	Oct_19_2020	162.2 (-0.3%)	160.88 (-0.2%)	161.59 (0%)	161.65	161.12(0%)	160.8(-0.4%)	160.05-160.98	-0.7(-0.7)	-0.6	-0.3%	0%	0%	-0.06%	N/A	Range(-0.1%)	5	32	1.8	-0.6	1.2	Rebound	161.49(0.43%)	160.42-161.95	9.29	-6.3%-1%
23	Oct_16_2020	162.38 (-0.3%)	160.77 (-0.5%)	161.55 (0.2%)	161.89	161.86(0%)	161.44(-0.27%)	161.1-162.32	-0.4(-0.5)	-0.6	%	-0.1%	0%	-0.1%	Growing Downtrend Downtrend Pop	Range(0%)	5	34	1.8	-1.1	0.9	Downtrend	161.08(-0.22%)	160.87-161.58	8.86	-5.9%-1.4%
24	Oct_15_2020	162.49 (-0.4%)	160.87 (-0.7%)	161.28 (0.2%)	161.62	162.19(0%)	161.87(-0.14%)	161.64-163.19	-0.2(-0.3)	2.3	0.2%	-0.1%	0%	-0.14%	Uptrend Reversal Downtrend Pop	Range(0.2%)	5	34	1.8	-1.1	0.7	Downtrend Consolidation	161.58(-0.18%)	162.06-161.42	9.46	-5.7%-1.6%
25	Oct_14_2020	162.6 (-0.4%)	160.98 (-0.9%)	160.93 (0.4%)	161.04	161.93(0%)	162.11(0.22%)	161.97-162.75	-0.3(-0.3)	1.7	0.4%	-0%	0%	-0.18%	Uptrend Reversal Downtrend Pop	Higher(0.4%)	4	34	1.8	-1.2	0.9	Downtrend Consolidation	161.75(-0.22%)	162.4-161.53	6.95	-5.5%-1.8%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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