Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 27, 2014

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $108.5100 (0.55%) ($108.1000 - $108.5600) on Thu. Feb. 27, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.61% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $108.5100(0.55%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(71%)    LQD(53%)    BNDX(46%)    SHY(34%)    GLD(26%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.305% in a week (0% probabilities).
XLF(-36%)    XOP(-28%)    XLE(-27%)    OIH(-26%)    EWP(-25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.305% (StdDev 0.61%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $107.37(1.06%)
10 Day Moving Average   $106.96(1.45%)
20 Day Moving Average   $107.12(1.3%)
To recent high   -0.7%
To recent low   6.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 0.81% (three month std-dev: 0.61%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20140327

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_27_2014	105.15	107.12	106.96	107.37			108.51(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	23	-10000	15	45	5.39	55%	0.04	7.4	0.61%	0	1.6	63	0
2	Feb_26_2014	105.11	107.08	106.69	106.89			107.92(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	10	-10000	10	10	7.23	55%	0.01	5.1	0.61%	0	1	54	0
3	Feb_25_2014	105.1	107.03	106.53	106.58			107.35(0.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-4	-10000	3	-23	6.23	55%	0.02	2.6	0.61%	0	0.4	41	0
4	Feb_24_2014	105.08	106.99	106.49	106.47			106.4(-0.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-13	-10000	-1	-50	3.82	51%	0	5.3	0.6%	0	-0.7	26	0
5	Feb_21_2014	105.08	107.05	106.49	106.51			106.67(0.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-15	-10000	1	-61	5.25	55%	0.01	21.1	0.61%	0	-0.5	39	0

6	Feb_20_2014	105.07	107.06	106.53	106.48			106.11(-0.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.5	-17	-10000	1	-72	5.1	49%	0	33.3	0.6%	0	-1.2	41	0
7	Feb_19_2014	105.07	107.03	106.63	106.44			106.37(-0.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-20	-10000	-1	-76	5.52	46%	0.01	34.6	0.64%	0	-0.8	41	0
8	Feb_18_2014	105.06	107.01	106.8	106.46			106.82(0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-18	-10000	-2	-67	4.86	46%	-0.01	37.2	0.65%	0	-0.2	50	0
9	Feb_14_2014	105.07	106.95	107.02	106.52			106.58(0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-12	-10000	-1	-46	5	46%	0	41.8	0.65%	0	-0.4	50	0
10	Feb_13_2014	105.07	106.88	107.19	106.56			106.52(0.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-10	-10000	-1	-38	6.87	46%	0	48.5	0.65%	0	-0.3	45	0

11	Feb_12_2014	105.07	106.79	107.3	106.59			105.92(-0.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-14	-10000	-7	-34	6.72	46%	-0.01	51.4	0.65%	0	-0.7	47	0
12	Feb_11_2014	105.08	106.73	107.5	106.84			106.47(-0.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-9	-10000	-10	-4	5.9	46%	0.01	59.2	0.65%	0	-0.2	59	0
13	Feb_10_2014	105.07	106.67	107.58	107.18			107.09(0.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-4	-10000	-13	22	4.37	46%	0.02	72.2	0.65%	0	0.3	60	0
14	Feb_7_2014	105.05	106.54	107.55	107.63			106.79(0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	7	-10000	-8	51	7.09	43%	0.02	85.6	0.72%	0	0.2	59	0
15	Feb_6_2014	105.03	106.38	107.63	107.92			106.7(-0.43%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	17	-10000	-5	84	5.71	43%	0.02	85.2	0.72%	0	0.2	61	0

16	Feb_5_2014	105.01	106.19	107.66	108.1			107.16(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	25	-10000	-4	111	10.31	41%	0.04	82	0.72%	0	0.5	67	0
17	Feb_4_2014	104.97	105.98	107.5	108.24			108.16(-1.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	37	-10000	6	129	9.57	42%	0.05	81.4	0.73%	0	1.2	72	0
18	Feb_3_2014	104.92	105.71	107.25	108			109.32(0.96%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	43	-10000	13	132	20.78	45%	0.06	78.1	0.71%	0	1.9	76	0
19	Jan_31_2014	104.86	105.35	106.86	107.49			108.28(0.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	31	-10000	4	113	14.69	39%	0.05	73.6	0.73%	0	1.6	75	0
20	Jan_30_2014	104.81	105.04	106.54	107.33			107.56(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	34	-10000	4	124	5.96	39%	0.05	71.6	0.72%	0	1.4	78	0

21	Jan_29_2014	104.76	104.75	106.22	107.17			107.87(0.82%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	44	-10000	13	136	11.72	39%	0.05	67.3	0.72%	0	1.7	82	0
22	Jan_28_2014	104.71	104.48	105.88	106.66			106.99(0.24%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	38	-10000	8	126	5.67	36%	0.04	56.9	0.72%	0	1.4	77	0
23	Jan_27_2014	104.67	104.22	105.67	106.37			106.73(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	39	-10000	7	133	9.22	36%	0.04	52.5	0.72%	0	1.5	77	0
24	Jan_24_2014	104.63	103.98	105.43	106.12			107.48(0.65%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	46	-10000	13	145	11.51	36%	0.05	47.2	0.71%	0	2.1	85	0
25	Jan_23_2014	104.58	103.73	105	105.63			106.79(1.42%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	43	-10000	13	134	12.96	36%		42.8	0.71%	0	2	83	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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