Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Nov. 15, 2012

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. Jun. 11, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $126.4800 (-0.2%) ($126.0000 - $127.0200) on Thu. Nov. 15, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.88% (three month average)
RSI   72
Latest Price   $126.4800(-0.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(72%)    LQD(55%)    SHY(34%)    GLD(25%)    IGOV(20%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.44% in a week (0% probabilities).
XOP(-28%)    OIH(-26%)    SPY(-25%)    EWP(-25%)    EWI(-25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.44% (StdDev 0.88%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $126.4(0.06%)
10 Day Moving Average   $124.99(1.19%)
20 Day Moving Average   $123.42(2.48%)
To recent high   -1%
To recent low   6.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.74% (three month std-dev: 0.88%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20121215

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_15_2012	124.91	123.42	124.99	126.4			126.48(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	32	-10000	2	121	5.55	50%	0	42.5	0.88%	0	1.4	72	0
2	Nov_14_2012	124.91	123.18	124.58	126.27			126.73(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	37	-10000	10	119	4.69	48%	0	42.4	0.9%	0	1.7	65	0
3	Nov_13_2012	124.91	123.01	124.23	125.72			126.61(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	43	-10000	17	119	2.86	48%	0	41.7	0.91%	0	1.9	70	0
4	Nov_12_2012	124.91	122.85	123.81	124.76			126.19(0.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	32	-10000	11	94	2.07	48%	0.01	38.3	0.91%	0	1.9	64	0
5	Nov_9_2012	124.9	122.7	123.28	124.11			125.98(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	30	-10000	13	80	5.04	48%	0	34.9	0.92%	0	2.1	68	0

6	Nov_8_2012	124.9	122.52	122.81	123.37			125.84(1.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	26	-10000	13	63	8.58	48%	-0.01	19.8	0.91%	0	2.4	64	0
7	Nov_7_2012	124.91	122.31	122.46	122.67			124(1.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	12	-10000	2	43	10.07	43%	-0.01	-3.3	0.9%	0	1.5	56	0
8	Nov_6_2012	124.92	122.21	122.15	122.54			121.79(-0.94%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	4	-10000	-3	25	4.48	39%	-0.05	-16.3	0.88%	0	-0.4	43	0
9	Nov_5_2012	124.98	122.18	122.16	122.71			122.95(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	12	-10000	8	24	2.94	41%	-0.02	-24.7	0.87%	0	0.7	45	0
10	Nov_2_2012	125.01	122.16	121.88	122.29			122.26(-0.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	0	-10000	3	-9	3.53	38%	-0.03	-41.9	0.89%	0	0.1	44	0

11	Nov_1_2012	125.05	122.25	121.75	122.14			122.35(-0.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-7	-10000	-1	-25	3.66	38%	-0.02	-49.4	0.9%	0	0.1	48	0
12	Oct_31_2012	125.08	122.34	121.7	122.21			123.36(0.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	2	-10000	9	-20	5.03	38%	-0.02	-42.1	0.89%	0	0.9	55	0
13	Oct_26_2012	125.1	122.37	121.69	121.73			122.64(1.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-5	-10000	3	-29	5.89	35%	-0.02	-41.5	0.91%	0	0.2	52	0
14	Oct_25_2012	125.13	122.44	121.79	121.55			120.86(-0.51%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.5	-3	-10000	3	-22	5.29	31%	-0.03	-35.5	0.9%	0	-1.2	50	0
15	Oct_24_2012	125.17	122.61	122.07	121.4			121.48(-0.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-4	-10000	2	-23	6.82	31%	-0.05	-29.2	0.9%	0	-0.8	46	0

16	Oct_23_2012	125.23	122.78	122.2	121.27			122.69(1.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-6	-10000	3	-34	5.76	33%	-0.06	-19.6	0.9%	0	-0.1	43	0
17	Oct_22_2012	125.3	122.83	122.12	121.13			120.96(-0.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-22	-10000	-10	-57	6.91	29%	-0.08	-11.6	0.88%	0	-1.4	37	0
18	Oct_19_2012	125.4	122.83	122.26	121.67			121.74(1.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-19	-10000	-8	-50	7.62	32%	-0.05	9.2	0.89%	0	-0.9	38	0
19	Oct_18_2012	125.46	122.92	122.22	122.12			120.11(-0.61%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-24	-10000	-13	-56	8.56	29%	-0.05	29.1	0.87%	0	-2.1	32	0
20	Oct_17_2012	125.52	123.01	122.5	122.83			120.85(-0.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-15	-10000	-7	-40	6.93	29%	-0.02	46.6	0.87%	0	-1.7	34	0

21	Oct_16_2012	125.54	123.05	122.85	122.83			121.98(-1.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-7	-10000	0	-29	5.4	30%	-0.02	50.5	0.87%	0	-0.8	34	0
22	Oct_15_2012	125.57	122.99	123.07	123.22			123.69(-0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-2	-10000	6	-26	3.04	31%	0	35.8	0.86%	0	0.5	50	0
23	Oct_12_2012	125.57	122.8	123.12	122.91			123.97(0.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	2	-10000	11	-24	4.93	31%	0.01	14.1	0.86%	0	0.7	58	0
24	Oct_11_2012	125.56	122.53	123.13	122.35			123.66(0.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-5	-10000	4	-31	5.19	31%	0	-10	0.86%	0	0.7	61	0
25	Oct_10_2012	125.56	122.42	123.16	122.16			122.81(0.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-12	-10000	-6	-28	5.43	31%		-20.9	0.86%	0	0.2	59	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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