Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 14, 2012

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $125.7000 (-0.13%) ($125.1900 - $126.2800) on Thu. Jun. 14, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.93% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $125.7000(-0.13%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(71%)    LQD(55%)    SHY(34%)    GLD(24%)    IGOV(19%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.465% in a week (0% probabilities).
XOP(-28%)    EWP(-27%)    SPY(-26%)    OIH(-26%)    EWI(-26%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.465% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $125.44(0.21%)
10 Day Moving Average   $126.39(-0.55%)
20 Day Moving Average   $125.36(0.27%)
To recent high   -3.6%
To recent low   14.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.64% (three month std-dev: 0.93%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_14_2012	118.08	125.36	126.39	125.44			125.7(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	5	-10000	2	14	7.69	58%	0.08	54.9	0.93%	0	0.2	60	0
2	Jun_13_2012	117.98	125.19	126.58	125.34			125.86(0.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	10	-10000	3	29	11.1	55%	0.08	58.4	0.99%	0	0.3	59	0
3	Jun_12_2012	117.89	125	126.62	125.18			124.63(-0.91%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	1	-10000	-10	35	10.92	53%	0.08	59.6	1.01%	0	-0.2	59	0
4	Jun_11_2012	117.8	124.84	126.52	125.78			125.78(0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	4	-10000	-11	48	10.69	53%	0.08	69.2	1%	0	0.4	56	0
5	Jun_8_2012	117.71	124.55	126.32	126.49			125.21(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	4	-10000	-16	64	11.24	53%	0.06	73.8	1%	0	0.2	54	0

6	Jun_7_2012	117.64	124.24	126.14	127.52			125.24(0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	18	-10000	-7	91	18.9	53%	0.04	79.7	1.01%	0	0.3	54	0
7	Jun_6_2012	117.59	123.95	126	127.99			125.05(-2%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	26	-10000	-3	113	20.81	55%	0.03	82.3	1.01%	0	0.3	60	0
8	Jun_5_2012	117.55	123.65	125.79	128.21			127.6(-1.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	45	-10000	15	136	12.48	59%	0.09	84.3	0.99%	0	1.2	69	0
9	Jun_4_2012	117.45	123.18	125.42	127.29			129.33(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	47	-10000	19	129	11.68	61%	0.08	77.3	0.98%	0	1.8	77	0
10	Jun_1_2012	117.36	122.61	124.87	126.1			130.36(2.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.3	50	-10000	25	123	23.53	59%	0.09	72.7	0.97%	0	2.4	84	0

11	May_31_2012	117.25	121.94	124.18	124.62			127.6(1.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	37	-10000	14	107	31.18	58%	0.07	68	0.95%	0	2	83	0
12	May_30_2012	117.17	121.41	123.6	123.78			126.14(2.54%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	34	-10000	12	100	17.17	54%	0.07	65.9	0.95%	0	1.8	79	0
13	May_29_2012	117.09	120.92	123.14	123.07			123.02(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	21	-10000	-3	92	5.87	49%	0.03	58.9	0.91%	0	0.8	73	0
14	May_25_2012	117.06	120.64	122.98	123.25			123.4(0.37%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	27	-10000	-3	116	4.72	49%	0.05	58.4	0.91%	0	1	78	0
15	May_24_2012	117	120.34	122.62	123.41			122.94(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	30	-10000	-4	130	10.26	49%	0.04	61.8	0.91%	0	1	77	0

16	May_23_2012	116.95	120.05	122.21	123.66			123.41(0.69%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0.1	42	-10000	5	152	11.74	49%	0.03	64.9	0.91%	0	1.3	82	0
17	May_22_2012	116.91	119.7	121.77	123.38			122.56(-1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	41	-10000	3	154	12.48	52%	0.05	63.6	0.91%	0	1.1	81	0
18	May_21_2012	116.85	119.42	121.41	123.2			123.94(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	50	-10000	10	168	9.59	52%	0.02	64.9	0.91%	0	1.8	93	0
19	May_18_2012	116.83	119.1	120.84	122.64			124.2(0.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	53	-10000	17	159	10.14	52%	0.03	66.7	0.92%	0	2.2	85	0
20	May_17_2012	116.79	118.72	120.21	121.7			124.17(1.77%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	50	-10000	20	138	14.86	52%	0.03	64.7	0.93%	0	2.7	85	0

21	May_16_2012	116.76	118.34	119.5	120.57			122.01(0.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	36	-10000	12	106	6.47	48%	0.03	68.9	0.9%	0	2.3	81	0
22	May_15_2012	116.72	118.07	119.01	119.94			121.66(0.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	31	-10000	11	91	6.77	48%	0.04	71.2	0.91%	0	2.6	82	0
23	May_14_2012	116.67	117.81	118.48	119.37			121.17(1.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	26	-10000	11	72	8.79	48%	0.03	73.2	0.91%	0	2.9	74	0
24	May_11_2012	116.64	117.57	118.07	118.77			119.5(0.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	16	-10000	5	50	5.24	45%	0	85.9	0.89%	0	2.3	59	0
25	May_10_2012	116.64	117.43	117.84	118.5			118.52(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	15	-10000	5	43	6.3	48%		94.7	0.89%	0	1.2	60	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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