Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 17, 2012

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $124.1700 (1.77%) ($122.0200 - $124.2800) on Thu. May. 17, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.93% (three month average)
RSI   85
Latest Price   $124.1700(1.77%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(71%)    LQD(54%)    SHY(34%)    GLD(24%)    IGOV(19%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.465% in a week (0% probabilities).
XOP(-29%)    EWP(-27%)    EWI(-27%)    SPY(-26%)    OIH(-26%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.465% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $121.7(2.03%)
10 Day Moving Average   $120.21(3.29%)
20 Day Moving Average   $118.72(4.59%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   12.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.7% (three month std-dev: 0.93%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120617

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_17_2012	116.79	118.72	120.21	121.7			124.17(1.77%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	50	-10000	20	138	14.86	52%	0.03	64.7	0.93%	0	2.7	85	0
2	May_16_2012	116.76	118.34	119.5	120.57			122.01(0.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	36	-10000	12	106	6.47	48%	0.03	68.9	0.9%	0	2.3	81	0
3	May_15_2012	116.72	118.07	119.01	119.94			121.66(0.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	31	-10000	11	91	6.77	48%	0.04	71.2	0.91%	0	2.6	82	0
4	May_14_2012	116.67	117.81	118.48	119.37			121.17(1.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	26	-10000	11	72	8.79	48%	0.03	73.2	0.91%	0	2.9	74	0
5	May_11_2012	116.64	117.57	118.07	118.77			119.5(0.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	16	-10000	5	50	5.24	45%	0	85.9	0.89%	0	2.3	59	0

6	May_10_2012	116.64	117.43	117.84	118.5			118.52(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	15	-10000	5	43	6.3	48%	0	94.7	0.89%	0	1.2	60	0
7	May_9_2012	116.64	117.26	117.7	118.24			118.87(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	14	-10000	6	36	5.83	48%	-0.02	98.7	0.9%	0	1.8	63	0
8	May_8_2012	116.66	117.09	117.46	117.91			118.79(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	13	-10000	9	25	6.05	48%	-0.05	125.4	0.91%	0	2	63	0
9	May_7_2012	116.72	116.98	117.28	117.44			118.16(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	5	-10000	3	11	3.23	45%	-0.03	139.7	0.91%	0	1.5	62	0
10	May_4_2012	116.76	116.85	117.24	117.27			118.14(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	5	-10000	3	12	6.37	45%	-0.03	165.6	0.92%	0	1.7	61	0

11	May_3_2012	116.79	116.6	117.12	117.27			117.22(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	2	-10000	0	7	3.52	42%	-0.03	105.4	0.92%	0	0.6	54	0
12	May_2_2012	116.83	116.36	117.11	117.1			117.25(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	7	-10000	3	18	3.57	42%	-0.02	76.6	0.96%	0	0.6	67	0
13	May_1_2012	116.85	116.06	117.07	116.94			116.43(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	3	-10000	-3	19	7.22	40%	-0.02	49.7	0.96%	0	0.2	59	0
14	Apr_30_2012	116.87	115.88	117.1	117.08			117.32(0.03%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	4	-10000	-2	22	4.2	42%	0.01	48.9	0.97%	0	0.7	52	0
15	Apr_27_2012	116.86	115.63	117.04	117.2			117.29(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	9	-10000	1	32	2.81	42%	-0.02	46.2	0.98%	0	0.8	60	0

16	Apr_26_2012	116.88	115.47	116.99	117.15			117.19(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	13	-10000	1	50	5.13	45%	-0.01	50.8	0.99%	0	0.8	70	0
17	Apr_25_2012	116.89	115.27	116.79	117.12			116.49(-0.51%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	14	-10000	-2	62	8.86	45%	0	53.8	1%	0	0.6	71	0
18	Apr_24_2012	116.89	115.12	116.7	117.21			117.09(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	24	-10000	2	91	4.34	45%	-0.02	62	1%	0	0.9	78	0
19	Apr_23_2012	116.91	114.9	116.67	117.12			117.92(0.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	31	-10000	4	113	5.17	45%	-0.01	66.5	0.99%	0	1.4	69	0
20	Apr_20_2012	116.92	114.65	116.43	116.87			117.07(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	32	-10000	1	123	5.04	45%	0.01	71.2	0.99%	0	1.2	68	0

21	Apr_19_2012	116.91	114.41	116.04	116.82			117.05(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	36	-10000	7	121	5.37	43%	-0.01	74.3	1%	0	1.3	59	0
22	Apr_18_2012	116.92	114.14	115.57	116.41			116.94(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	30	-10000	5	103	4.07	43%	-0.03	72.3	1.02%	0	1.4	61	0
23	Apr_17_2012	116.95	113.82	114.97	116.11			116.6(-0.06%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	20	-10000	-1	81	5.4	43%	-0.04	59.7	1.02%	0	1.4	59	0
24	Apr_16_2012	117	113.5	114.56	116.16			116.67(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	24	-10000	4	85	7.73	43%	-0.03	47.5	1.03%	0	1.6	62	0
25	Apr_13_2012	117.04	113.23	114.11	115.94			116.84(1.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	30	-10000	13	80	8.61	43%		36.5	1.03%	0	1.9	60	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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