Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Aug. 19, 2011

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $111.2000 (0.81%) ($110.2300 - $111.4100) on Fri. Aug. 19, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.4% (three month average)
RSI   71
Latest Price   $111.2000(0.81%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 2.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(71%)    LQD(54%)    SHY(33%)    GLD(22%)    PCY(17%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.7% in a week (0% probabilities).
EWI(-33%)    XOP(-32%)    SPY(-32%)    EWP(-32%)    EWG(-31%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.7% (StdDev 1.4%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $108.07(2.9%)
10 Day Moving Average   $107.08(3.85%)
20 Day Moving Average   $103.28(7.67%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   18.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 4.9% (three month std-dev: 1.4%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110919

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_19_2011	96.5	103.28	107.08	108.07			111.2(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	44	-10000	15	131	15.71	64%	0.21	62.2	1.4%	0	1.6	71	0
2	Aug_18_2011	96.3	102.51	106.19	106.94			110.31(2.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	45	-10000	18	126	27.27	62%	0.19	58	1.4%	0	1.6	71	0
3	Aug_17_2011	96.12	101.75	105.65	105.58			108.09(1.75%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.5	29	-10000	-3	125	15.91	61%	0.18	52.4	1.4%	0	1.4	71	0
4	Aug_16_2011	95.95	101.14	105.02	105.77			106.23(1.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	41	-10000	1	160	15.99	60%	0.15	55.2	1.39%	0	1.1	70	0
5	Aug_15_2011	95.81	100.68	104.57	105.7			104.5(-1.01%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	45	-10000	-3	188	10.05	59%	0.14	55.8	1.37%	0	0.9	69	0

6	Aug_12_2011	95.68	100.22	104.04	105.91			105.57(1.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	61	-10000	9	218	15.59	59%	0.14	56.3	1.37%	0	1.2	72	0
7	Aug_11_2011	95.55	99.73	103.31	105.26			103.52(-5.04%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	50	-10000	-5	213	37.79	58%	0.12	55.2	1.35%	0	0.9	67	0
8	Aug_10_2011	95.44	99.35	102.63	105.62			109.02(2.98%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	86	-10000	23	275	46.22	64%	0.17	61.8	1.19%	0	2.3	81	0
9	Aug_9_2011	95.28	98.72	101.28	104.17			105.87(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	73	-10000	15	245	39.88	62%	0.14	65.6	1.14%	0	2	75	0
10	Aug_8_2011	95.15	98.25	100.25	103.3			105.55(3.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	73	-10000	24	221	38.27	62%	0.14	71.1	1.14%	0	2.3	69	0

11	Aug_5_2011	95.02	97.78	99.18	101.91			102.32(-2.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	59	-10000	16	189	41.68	59%	0.09	74	1.08%	0	1.7	69	0
12	Aug_4_2011	94.93	97.41	98.54	101.03			105.36(3.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	74	-10000	37	183	34.08	64%	0.13	70.7	1.01%	0	3	74	0
13	Aug_3_2011	94.81	96.82	97.48	99.16			101.74(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	51	-10000	27	124	21.18	60%	0.1	68.3	0.92%	0	2.5	69	0
14	Aug_2_2011	94.72	96.43	96.87	97.94			101.54(3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	37	-10000	26	70	20.85	60%	0.11	58	0.92%	0	3	61	0
15	Aug_1_2011	94.62	96.03	96.38	96.77			98.58(0.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	20	-10000	18	26	14.35	56%	0.07	47.2	0.85%	0	2.1	54	0

16	Jul_29_2011	94.55	95.78	96.03	96.05			97.92(1.98%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.6	2	-10000	9	-18	19.58	56%	0.06	19.7	0.85%	0	1.8	53	0
17	Jul_28_2011	94.49	95.59	96.03	95.68			96.02(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-5	-10000	4	-31	7.08	53%	0.06	-1.7	0.82%	0	0.4	54	0
18	Jul_27_2011	94.43	95.5	95.83	95.54			95.66(0.01%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-8	-10000	-2	-26	11.23	51%	0.06	-15.1	0.82%	0	0.1	59	0
19	Jul_26_2011	94.37	95.5	95.99	95.62			95.65(0.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-7	-10000	-8	-5	7.68	53%	0.05	-20.2	0.83%	0	0.2	57	0
20	Jul_25_2011	94.32	95.46	96.13	95.93			95(-1.09%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	8	-10000	-1	33	10.87	53%	0.05	-17.6	0.84%	0	-0.4	57	0

21	Jul_22_2011	94.27	95.55	96.32	95.98			96.05(0.76%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	14	-10000	-1	58	4.97	55%	0.06	-16	0.83%	0	0.4	63	0
22	Jul_21_2011	94.21	95.61	96.26	96.01			95.33(-0.77%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	15	-10000	-3	69	11.1	55%	0.04	-14.5	0.83%	0	-0.2	57	0
23	Jul_20_2011	94.17	95.67	96.17	96.14			96.07(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	13	-10000	-7	74	9.67	55%	0.04	-12.8	0.82%	0	0.3	60	0
24	Jul_19_2011	94.13	95.69	96.01	96.41			97.22(2.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	22	-10000	0	87	15.25	57%	0.05	-2.2	0.81%	0	1.2	61	0
25	Jul_18_2011	94.08	95.66	95.68	96.39			95.24(-0.97%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	13	-10000	-8	77	8.21	53%		-0.8	0.77%	0	-0.3	47	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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