Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. May. 17, 2011

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jun. 7, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $96.5900 (1.02%) ($95.9800 - $96.6000) on Tue. May. 17, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.73% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $96.5900(1.02%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(71%)    LQD(54%)    SHY(34%)    GLD(22%)    PCY(16%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.365% in a week (0% probabilities).
EWI(-34%)    EWP(-33%)    XOP(-32%)    SPY(-32%)    EWG(-32%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.365% (StdDev 0.73%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $95.27(1.39%)
10 Day Moving Average   $95.09(1.58%)
20 Day Moving Average   $94.27(2.46%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   7.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.11% (three month std-dev: 0.73%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110617

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_17_2011	92.02	94.27	95.09	95.27			96.59(1.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	28	-10000	13	74	9.83	72%	0.03	80.2	0.73%	0	2.2	74	0
2	May_16_2011	91.99	94.08	94.84	94.81			95.61(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	16	-10000	4	53	6.05	71%	0.03	91.9	0.72%	0	1.6	61	0
3	May_13_2011	91.96	93.93	94.65	94.81			95.08(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	13	-10000	0	53	8.38	71%	0.03	106.3	0.71%	0	1.3	64	0
4	May_12_2011	91.93	93.76	94.53	94.68			94.23(-0.63%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	10	-10000	-7	62	8.02	69%	0.01	100	0.71%	0	0.5	62	0
5	May_11_2011	91.92	93.63	94.48	94.93			94.83(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	23	-10000	1	87	6.08	71%	0.01	104.3	0.71%	0	1.1	66	0

6	May_10_2011	91.91	93.44	94.3	94.88			94.29(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	21	-10000	1	81	5.46	67%	0.01	91.4	0.73%	0	0.7	57	0
7	May_9_2011	91.9	93.24	94.26	94.86			94.97(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	29	-10000	8	92	3.74	67%	0.02	71.8	0.74%	0	1.2	65	0
8	May_6_2011	91.88	92.99	94.06	94.59			95.07(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	25	-10000	6	82	9.46	67%	0.04	55.3	0.74%	0	1.4	67	0
9	May_5_2011	91.84	92.75	93.81	94.36			95.49(0.95%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	29	-10000	11	82	9.59	67%	0.04	45.4	0.75%	0	1.8	76	0
10	May_4_2011	91.8	92.5	93.52	93.98			94.59(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	26	-10000	10	74	7.42	65%	0.03	35.5	0.75%	0	1.5	72	0

11	May_3_2011	91.77	92.36	93.38	93.64			94.17(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	20	-10000	2	73	6.49	65%	0	32.4	0.76%	0	1.4	74	0
12	May_2_2011	91.77	92.25	93.25	93.57			93.64(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	27	-10000	4	96	5.29	65%	0.01	32.6	0.76%	0	1.1	76	0
13	Apr_29_2011	91.76	92.17	93.15	93.44			93.89(0.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	34	-10000	7	113	5.91	65%	0	31.1	0.77%	0	1.4	79	0
14	Apr_28_2011	91.76	92.07	92.91	93.18			93.6(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	32	-10000	5	111	8.11	65%	0	26.2	0.77%	0	1.3	72	0
15	Apr_27_2011	91.76	92	92.71	92.99			92.89(-1.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	26	-10000	-2	110	8.87	65%	-0.01	20	0.77%	0	0.8	68	0

16	Apr_26_2011	91.77	91.93	92.52	93.07			93.85(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	32	-10000	5	113	7.51	64%	-0.02	15.4	0.76%	0	1.8	60	0
17	Apr_25_2011	91.79	91.84	92.14	92.88			92.95(0.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	23	-10000	2	85	3.63	61%	-0.07	8.3	0.77%	0	1.1	53	0
18	Apr_21_2011	91.85	91.79	91.85	92.82			92.6(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	22	-10000	6	68	3.37	61%	-0.04	1	0.77%	0	0.9	51	0
19	Apr_20_2011	91.89	91.77	91.63	92.59			92.68(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	16	-10000	7	44	6.76	57%	-0.05	-9.4	0.78%	0	0.9	52	0
20	Apr_19_2011	91.94	91.78	91.41	92.35			93.28(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	15	-10000	13	22	5.3	57%	-0.05	-19.3	0.8%	0	1.5	55	0

21	Apr_18_2011	91.99	91.76	91.25	91.88			92.88(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	13	-10000	16	5	12.04	57%	-0.04	-31.8	0.8%	0	1.1	58	0
22	Apr_15_2011	92.03	91.75	91.16	91.3			92.67(1.36%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	6	-10000	16	-23	10.22	57%	0	-40.5	0.8%	0	0.9	50	0
23	Apr_14_2011	92.03	91.78	91.08	90.74			91.43(-0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-9	-10000	6	-53	7.61	54%	-0.04	-46.9	0.79%	0	-0.3	43	0
24	Apr_13_2011	92.07	91.86	91.13	90.53			91.5(0.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-12	-10000	6	-66	7.96	54%	-0.07	-45.1	0.79%	0	-0.3	42	0
25	Apr_12_2011	92.13	91.97	91.2	90.33			90.93(1.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-26	-10000	-6	-86	7.69	54%		-36.6	0.8%	0	-0.9	32	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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