Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Jun. 29, 2010

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $101.0700 (1.09%) ($100.1600 - $101.1300) on Tue. Jun. 29, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.01% (three month average)
RSI   62
Latest Price   $101.0700(1.09%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(71%)    LQD(55%)    SHY(35%)    GLD(21%)    PCY(15%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.505% in a week (0% probabilities).
EWI(-34%)    SPY(-33%)    EWP(-33%)    EWG(-33%)    XOP(-32%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.505% (StdDev 1.01%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $99.6(1.48%)
10 Day Moving Average   $98.73(2.37%)
20 Day Moving Average   $97.92(3.22%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   15.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.37% (three month std-dev: 1.01%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20100729

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_29_2010	92.83	97.92	98.73	99.6			101.07(1.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	29	-10000	10	87	7.34	65%	0.1	48.2	1.01%	0	2.4	62	0
2	Jun_28_2010	92.74	97.69	98.26	99.1			99.98(0.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	23	-10000	10	63	5.44	64%	0.09	38.7	1.01%	0	2	58	0
3	Jun_25_2010	92.66	97.51	97.95	98.58			99.05(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	13	-10000	5	35	5.15	64%	0.09	21.3	1.01%	0	1.5	51	0
4	Jun_24_2010	92.58	97.36	97.77	98.31			98.65(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	8	-10000	3	24	6.18	61%	0.09	4.7	1.01%	0	1.3	54	0
5	Jun_23_2010	92.5	97.33	97.53	98.15			99.24(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	12	-10000	8	25	9.14	61%	0.09	9.7	1.04%	0	1.9	68	0

6	Jun_22_2010	92.42	97.28	97.37	97.72			98.57(1.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	12	-10000	8	22	5.66	61%	0.09	9.2	1.04%	0	1.4	62	0
7	Jun_21_2010	92.34	97.24	97.3	97.3			97.41(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	5	-10000	2	13	5.74	59%	0.05	14.7	1.03%	0	0.2	53	0
8	Jun_18_2010	92.29	97.29	97.3	97.2			97.69(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	6	-10000	1	20	4.17	59%	0.07	28.3	1.03%	0	0.4	56	0
9	Jun_17_2010	92.23	97.31	97.4	97.15			97.85(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	13	-10000	7	31	5.65	59%	0.07	49.5	1.03%	0	0.6	58	0
10	Jun_16_2010	92.17	97.23	97.16	96.82			97.06(0.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-2	-10000	-3	-0	4.01	60%	0.07	56.3	1.03%	0	-0.2	45	0

11	Jun_15_2010	92.11	97.19	97.06	96.99			96.51(-0.41%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-7	-10000	-6	-10	4.92	60%	0.05	71.7	1.03%	0	-0.7	42	0
12	Jun_14_2010	92.06	97.11	97.1	97.3			96.91(-0.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-7	-10000	-7	-7	5.31	60%	0.05	73.8	1.03%	0	-0.2	45	0
13	Jun_11_2010	92.01	97.02	97.07	97.63			97.41(1.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-2	-10000	-1	-4	6.27	60%	0.05	74.8	1.03%	0	0.3	45	0
14	Jun_10_2010	91.96	96.83	96.94	97.7			96.19(-1.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	0	-10000	4	-12	6.08	59%	0.05	54.5	1.02%	0	-0.4	41	0
15	Jun_9_2010	91.91	96.68	97.14	97.51			97.94(-0.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	5	-10000	8	-6	5.6	62%	0.08	40.9	0.99%	0	0.7	58	0

16	Jun_8_2010	91.84	96.46	97.18	97.11			98.05(-0.5%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	2	-10000	5	-8	5.51	62%	0.08	33.2	0.99%	0	0.9	59	0
17	Jun_7_2010	91.77	96.24	97.17	96.87			98.54(0.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	8	-10000	9	5	5.29	62%	0.08	33.3	0.99%	0	1.2	67	0
18	Jun_4_2010	91.7	96.08	97.13	96.46			97.79(2.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	8	-10000	7	10	7.48	60%	0.09	37.5	1%	0	0.9	63	0
19	Jun_3_2010	91.62	96.02	97.16	96.11			95.23(-0.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-5	-10000	-13	20	8.5	56%	0.07	47.6	0.95%	0	-0.4	62	0
20	Jun_2_2010	91.56	95.96	97.3	96.73			95.93(-0.95%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	8	-10000	-11	66	5.66	56%	0.07	64.2	0.94%	0	-0	68	0

21	Jun_1_2010	91.5	95.85	97.34	97.25			96.85(0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	22	-10000	-6	106	5.54	58%	0.11	74.6	0.94%	0	0.5	67	0
22	May_28_2010	91.4	95.61	97.14	97.5			96.5(0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	24	-10000	-9	123	5.81	58%	0.09	73.2	0.94%	0	0.4	65	0
23	May_27_2010	91.32	95.4	97.01	97.89			96.06(-2.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	27	-10000	-10	136	7.65	58%	0.08	78	0.94%	0	0.3	52	0
24	May_26_2010	91.25	95.17	96.77	98.34			98.29(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	44	-10000	9	150	12.64	63%	0.09	79.5	0.9%	0	1.2	54	0
25	May_25_2010	91.17	94.79	96.23	97.94			98.57(0.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	42	-10000	12	131	12.95	63%		76.7	0.9%	0	1.5	65	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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