Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. May. 25, 2010

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $98.5700 (0.49%) ($98.4000 - $99.8900) on Tue. May. 25, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.9% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $98.5700(0.49%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(71%)    LQD(55%)    SHY(36%)    GLD(21%)    PCY(15%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.45% in a week (0% probabilities).
EWI(-35%)    SPY(-34%)    EWP(-34%)    XOP(-33%)    EWG(-33%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.45% (StdDev 0.9%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $97.94(0.64%)
10 Day Moving Average   $96.23(2.43%)
20 Day Moving Average   $94.79(3.99%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   12.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 2.62% (three month std-dev: 0.9%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20100625

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_25_2010	91.17	94.79	96.23	97.94			98.57(0.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	42	-10000	12	131	12.95	63%	0.1	76.7	0.9%	0	1.5	65	0
2	May_24_2010	91.08	94.43	95.71	97.43			98.09(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	41	-10000	16	114	7.72	63%	0.08	74.8	0.9%	0	1.5	66	0
3	May_21_2010	91.01	94.04	95.25	96.71			98.43(0.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	37	-10000	16	100	18.67	65%	0.1	69.5	0.91%	0	1.8	71	0
4	May_20_2010	90.92	93.61	94.92	96			98.33(2.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	42	-10000	23	99	17.67	65%	0.09	65.9	0.91%	0	2.1	69	0
5	May_19_2010	90.84	93.21	94.7	94.99			96.3(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	37	-10000	17	96	14.12	62%	0.08	62.6	0.89%	0	1.5	68	0

6	May_18_2010	90.77	92.92	94.45	94.26			95.98(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	31	-10000	12	88	9.9	62%	0.07	58.3	0.89%	0	1.5	68	0
7	May_17_2010	90.71	92.62	94.18	93.74			94.53(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	24	-10000	5	80	6.3	57%	0.04	52.6	0.87%	0	1	61	0
8	May_14_2010	90.67	92.38	93.91	93.55			94.88(1.74%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.7	18	-10000	-3	80	9.8	57%	0.07	51.2	0.88%	0	1.3	66	0
9	May_13_2010	90.61	92.12	93.65	93.69			93.26(0.66%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	12	-10000	-17	99	6.85	54%	0.02	55.6	0.86%	0	0.6	63	0
10	May_12_2010	90.59	91.93	93.46	94.4			92.65(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	31	-10000	-6	141	5.53	54%	0.03	65.5	0.86%	0	0.4	60	0

11	May_11_2010	90.56	91.76	93.3	94.4			93.36(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	40	-10000	0	160	7.73	54%	0.02	69.6	0.85%	0	0.8	61	0
12	May_10_2010	90.54	91.58	93.13	94.64			93.6(-2.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	51	-10000	9	176	10.24	52%	0.01	74.9	0.86%	0	1	65	0
13	May_7_2010	90.53	91.37	92.81	94.26			95.58(-1.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	58	-10000	18	179	18.74	54%	0.02	75	0.82%	0	2	75	0
14	May_6_2010	90.51	91.03	92.25	93.57			96.79(3.09%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.7	63	-10000	30	160	19.58	57%	0.07	72.6	0.81%	0	3	80	0
15	May_5_2010	90.45	90.6	91.58	92.43			93.89(0.59%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	47	-10000	19	129	12.22	50%	0.02	74.5	0.72%	0	2.4	76	0

16	May_4_2010	90.43	90.33	91.24	91.79			93.34(1.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	36	-10000	11	109	11.06	54%	0.01	66.9	0.72%	0	2.4	75	0
17	May_3_2010	90.42	90.04	90.88	91.42			91.69(-0.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	30	-10000	9	94	4.21	47%	-0.01	59.8	0.71%	0	1.4	63	0
18	Apr_30_2010	90.43	89.84	90.68	91.12			92.13(1.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	29	-10000	12	81	6.92	44%	0.01	49.2	0.73%	0	2	68	0
19	Apr_29_2010	90.42	89.67	90.44	90.72			91.08(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	20	-10000	4	67	4.07	43%	-0.03	46.5	0.72%	0	1.4	67	0
20	Apr_28_2010	90.45	89.58	90.26	90.72			90.7(-0.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	16	-10000	0	63	8.38	43%	-0.03	46.7	0.73%	0	1.2	66	0

21	Apr_27_2010	90.48	89.49	90.11	90.59			91.48(1.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	25	-10000	9	73	13.2	45%	-0.02	39.4	0.72%	0	2.1	74	0
22	Apr_26_2010	90.5	89.34	89.92	90.28			90.21(0.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0.1	22	-10000	3	77	4.75	41%	-0.03	19.6	0.69%	0	1.1	76	0
23	Apr_23_2010	90.53	89.27	89.84	90.17			90.11(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	24	-10000	2	89	4.78	41%	-0.04	3.3	0.69%	0	1.1	76	0
24	Apr_22_2010	90.57	89.2	89.74	90.12			90.43(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	29	-10000	8	92	4.61	41%	-0.07	-12.6	0.69%	0	1.6	60	0
25	Apr_21_2010	90.63	89.13	89.57	89.87			90.7(0.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	26	-10000	10	74	4.16	41%		-36.6	0.69%	0	2.2	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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