Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 26, 2008

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $91.2500 (0.67%) ($90.7900 - $91.4400) on Thu. Jun. 26, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.68% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $91.2500(0.67%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(67%)    LQD(43%)    SHY(41%)    GLD(17%)    PCY(8%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.34% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-35%)    EWI(-35%)    XOP(-34%)    EWP(-34%)    EWG(-34%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.34% (StdDev 0.68%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $90.46(0.87%)
10 Day Moving Average   $89.87(1.54%)
20 Day Moving Average   $90.01(1.38%)
To recent high   -4.8%
To recent low   2.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 0.76% (three month std-dev: 0.68%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20080726

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_26_2008	92.47	90.01	89.87	90.46			91.25(0.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	17	-10000	13	28	4.05	34%	-0.04	-9.2	0.68%	0	1.8	51	0
2	Jun_25_2008	92.51	89.92	89.64	90.07			90.64(0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	5	-10000	6	-0	3.25	34%	-0.04	-47.8	0.68%	0	1.2	58	0
3	Jun_24_2008	92.55	89.9	89.56	89.9			90.59(0.66%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	5	-10000	10	-9	3.12	30%	-0.04	-67.1	0.68%	0	1	52	0
4	Jun_23_2008	92.59	89.92	89.5	89.6			90(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-3	-10000	7	-34	1.59	30%	-0.05	-86.3	0.71%	0	0.1	41	0
5	Jun_20_2008	92.64	90	89.55	89.38			89.81(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-6	-10000	6	-42	4.58	30%	-0.06	-82.6	0.72%	0	-0.2	46	0

6	Jun_19_2008	92.7	90.07	89.63	89.19			89.29(-0.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-11	-10000	2	-51	1.7	37%	-0.05	-89	0.71%	0	-1	43	0
7	Jun_18_2008	92.75	90.22	89.67	89.14			89.82(0.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-14	-10000	-1	-54	2.59	37%	-0.05	-75	0.74%	0	-0.4	52	0
8	Jun_17_2008	92.8	90.34	89.7	89.17			89.07(0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-20	-10000	-7	-57	1.71	33%	-0.08	-62.9	0.74%	0	-1.2	41	0
9	Jun_16_2008	92.87	90.49	89.88	89.39			88.89(0.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-21	-10000	-11	-51	1.76	33%	-0.08	-59.5	0.74%	0	-1.5	35	0
10	Jun_13_2008	92.94	90.64	90.03	89.76			88.87(-0.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-19	-10000	-11	-44	1.98	38%	-0.05	-54	0.76%	0	-1.7	31	0

11	Jun_12_2008	92.99	90.81	90.18	90.14			89.06(-1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-10	-10000	-3	-31	4.41	44%	-0.09	-46.3	0.77%	0	-1.8	36	0
12	Jun_11_2008	93.07	90.93	90.26	90.25			89.96(-0.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-12	-10000	-1	-45	2.27	46%	-0.06	-48	0.8%	0	-1.1	34	0
13	Jun_10_2008	93.13	91.01	90.31	90.29			90.17(-0.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-19	-10000	-4	-62	1.94	50%	-0.03	-45.8	0.8%	0	-1	35	0
14	Jun_9_2008	93.16	91.11	90.4	90.44			90.76(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-13	-10000	2	-58	1.81	50%	-0.05	-36.7	0.82%	0	-0.4	42	0
15	Jun_6_2008	93.21	91.2	90.48	90.35			90.76(1.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-14	-10000	3	-63	3.86	50%	-0.06	-34.3	0.82%	0	-0.5	43	0

16	Jun_5_2008	93.27	91.26	90.53	90.25			89.6(-0.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-19	-10000	-0	-77	2.63	44%	-0.05	-39.8	0.81%	0	-1.8	32	0
17	Jun_4_2008	93.32	91.36	90.81	90.27			90.14(-0.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-18	-10000	-1	-69	2.81	44%	-0.06	-53.8	0.82%	0	-1.4	43	0
18	Jun_3_2008	93.38	91.41	91.03	90.31			90.95(0.72%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-16	-10000	-1	-61	2.45	46%	-0.04	-62.9	0.82%	0	-0.6	47	0
19	Jun_2_2008	93.42	91.45	91.12	90.35			90.3(0.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-23	-10000	-8	-66	3.08	46%	-0.04	-66.7	0.82%	0	-1.4	36	0
20	May_30_2008	93.46	91.52	91.28	90.65			90.28(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-19	-10000	-6	-59	2.51	46%	-0.03	-61.4	0.82%	0	-1.6	35	0

21	May_29_2008	93.49	91.64	91.48	90.86			89.69(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-25	-10000	-15	-53	3.3	50%	-0.05	-52.4	0.82%	0	-2.6	34	0
22	May_28_2008	93.54	91.82	91.67	91.42			90.34(-0.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-15	-10000	-11	-27	3.25	53%	-0.05	-37.5	0.84%	0	-2.2	45	0
23	May_27_2008	93.59	91.93	91.79	91.84			91.15(-0.68%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-4	-10000	-4	-3	1.99	56%	-0.04	-30.2	0.87%	0	-1.3	54	0
24	May_23_2008	93.63	91.98	91.92	92			91.77(0.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.4	3	-10000	-0	10	1.8	53%	-0.02	-32.2	0.86%	0	-0.4	52	0
25	May_22_2008	93.65	91.99	91.99	92.01			91.37(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.2	1	-10000	-4	16	2.86	53%		-40.7	0.86%	0	-1.1	49	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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