Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Jan. 15, 2008

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. May. 23, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $95.6100 (1.12%) ($95.0700 - $95.6300) on Tue. Jan. 15, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.8% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $95.6100(1.12%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(68%)    LQD(43%)    SHY(41%)    GLD(16%)    PCY(8%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.4% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-35%)    EWI(-35%)    XOP(-34%)    IWM(-34%)    EWP(-34%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.4% (StdDev 0.8%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $94.52(1.15%)
10 Day Moving Average   $94.48(1.2%)
20 Day Moving Average   $93.29(2.49%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   9.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.53% (three month std-dev: 0.8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_15_2008	91.06	93.29	94.48	94.52			95.61(1.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	32	-10000	6	111	1.44	61%	0.08	52.9	0.8%	0	1.6	74	0
2	Jan_14_2008	90.99	93.04	94.23	94.31			94.55(0.37%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	28	-10000	-1	114	0.91	59%	0.08	47.3	0.79%	0	1.1	67	0
3	Jan_11_2008	90.92	92.86	94.03	94.33			94.2(0.78%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	28	-10000	-1	114	1.87	59%	0.08	40.6	0.79%	0	0.9	55	0
4	Jan_10_2008	90.85	92.75	93.75	94.35			93.47(-1.35%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	22	-10000	-4	99	2.68	59%	0.08	36.3	0.79%	0	0.5	51	0
5	Jan_9_2008	90.78	92.72	93.48	94.5			94.75(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	27	-10000	2	102	2.2	62%	0.08	34.4	0.77%	0	1.4	64	0

6	Jan_8_2008	90.71	92.54	93.13	94.43			94.57(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	32	-10000	8	102	1.6	62%	0.09	23.5	0.77%	0	1.5	66	0
7	Jan_7_2008	90.63	92.39	92.84	94.13			94.68(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	34	-10000	12	100	1.32	62%	0.1	9.1	0.77%	0	1.7	70	0
8	Jan_4_2008	90.54	92.28	92.65	93.69			94.27(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	38	-10000	18	97	2.42	60%	0.08	-7.6	0.78%	0	1.6	66	0
9	Jan_3_2008	90.47	92.28	92.52	93.04			94.25(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.1	36	-10000	21	79	1.26	60%	0.09	-26.4	0.78%	0	1.8	59	0
10	Jan_2_2008	90.39	92.23	92.28	92.28			94.38(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	23	-10000	18	36	2.96	60%	0.13	-47.8	0.78%	0	2	54	0

11	Dec_31_2007	90.27	92.22	91.96	91.65			93.05(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	8	-10000	8	6	1.65	57%	0.08	-59.1	0.76%	0	0.7	57	0
12	Dec_28_2007	90.2	92.27	91.72	91.38			92.48(1.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-8	-10000	-3	-21	1.97	57%	0.08	-59.6	0.76%	0	0.2	53	0
13	Dec_27_2007	90.13	92.38	91.57	91.49			91.06(0.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-18	-10000	-13	-34	0.47	56%	0.06	-49	0.74%	0	-0.9	43	0
14	Dec_26_2007	90.08	92.52	91.67	91.92			90.44(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-13	-10000	-9	-25	0.67	56%	0.07	-38.2	0.74%	0	-1.5	37	0
15	Dec_24_2007	90.02	92.74	91.93	92.24			91.24(-0.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-6	-10000	-1	-21	0.55	58%	0.03	-25.6	0.72%	0	-1	35	0

16	Dec_21_2007	89.99	92.95	91.94	92.27			91.67(-1.46%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-7	-10000	6	-46	1.77	59%	0.04	-16.1	0.72%	0	-0.9	36	0
17	Dec_20_2007	89.95	93.05	91.95	92.06			93.03(-0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-10	-10000	13	-78	1.66	58%	0.07	-16.1	0.7%	0	-0	42	0
18	Dec_19_2007	89.89	93.07	91.9	91.66			93.23(1.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-23	-10000	7	-113	2.25	56%	0.07	-17.4	0.74%	0	0.1	41	0
19	Dec_18_2007	89.83	93.06	91.91	91.42			92.01(0.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-39	-10000	-6	-136	1.42	53%	0.06	-17.4	0.74%	0	-0.7	40	0
20	Dec_17_2007	89.78	93.12	92.15	91.62			91.42(0.89%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-31	-10000	1	-126	2.05	53%	0.04	-9.9	0.74%	0	-1.2	35	0

21	Dec_14_2007	89.74	93.18	92.47	91.57			90.61(-0.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-41	-10000	-7	-142	1.35	51%	0.04	-7.5	0.73%	0	-1.9	27	0
22	Dec_13_2007	89.7	93.28	92.85	91.8			91.03(-1.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-40	-10000	-10	-129	1.22	49%	0.06	3	0.73%	0	-1.8	41	0
23	Dec_12_2007	89.65	93.33	93.24	92.15			92.03(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-33	-10000	-10	-103	2.23	51%	0.07	13.7	0.73%	0	-1.1	45	0
24	Dec_11_2007	89.59	93.31	93.45	92.47			92.99(1.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-29	-10000	-11	-84	2.89	53%	0.08	23.5	0.71%	0	-0.3	52	0
25	Dec_10_2007	89.52	93.25	93.61	92.82			91.2(-0.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-33	-10000	-23	-63	2.24	51%		32.4	0.67%	0	-1.6	43	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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