Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 8, 2006

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. Jun. 20, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $85.2700 (0.2%) ($85.1100 - $85.7800) on Thu. Jun. 8, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.53% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $85.2700(0.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(68%)    LQD(44%)    SHY(42%)    GLD(15%)    REMX(-0%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.265% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-35%)    EWI(-35%)    EWP(-34%)    IWM(-33%)    EWG(-33%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.265% (StdDev 0.53%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $84.98(0.34%)
10 Day Moving Average   $84.52(0.89%)
20 Day Moving Average   $84.19(1.28%)
To recent high   -4.3%
To recent low   3.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 0.87% (three month std-dev: 0.53%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_8_2006	87.22	84.19	84.52	84.98			85.27(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	22	-10000	14	45	3.5	37%	-0.09	51.7	0.53%	0	1.5	65	0
2	Jun_7_2006	87.3	84.11	84.44	84.67			85.1(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	19	-10000	12	40	1.32	37%	-0.08	46.9	0.53%	0	1.5	75	0
3	Jun_6_2006	87.37	84.03	84.38	84.39			85.08(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	14	-10000	9	30	2.19	35%	-0.03	39	0.53%	0	1.6	65	0
4	Jun_5_2006	87.4	83.95	84.32	84.2			84.68(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	12	-10000	4	34	1.1	35%	-0.08	36.6	0.53%	0	1.2	68	0
5	Jun_2_2006	87.47	83.89	84.29	84.11			84.79(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	15	-10000	4	48	2.04	33%	-0.08	29	0.54%	0	1.6	72	0

6	Jun_1_2006	87.54	83.81	84.23	84.01			83.71(0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	7	-10000	-8	51	1.56	27%	-0.08	17.9	0.51%	0	-0.2	55	0
7	May_31_2006	87.61	83.79	84.18	84.18			83.67(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	8	-10000	-8	57	0.88	30%	-0.09	20.3	0.52%	0	-0.2	50	0
8	May_30_2006	87.69	83.78	84.19	84.36			84.17(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	15	-10000	-4	73	0.48	30%	-0.14	23.2	0.52%	0	0.7	56	0
9	May_26_2006	87.81	83.73	84.08	84.45			84.21(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	17	-10000	-2	74	0.4	30%	-0.09	13	0.52%	0	0.8	56	0
10	May_25_2006	87.89	83.72	83.94	84.49			84.27(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	17	-10000	0	67	0.68	30%	-0.09	10.3	0.53%	0	1	57	0

11	May_24_2006	87.97	83.71	83.85	84.48			84.6(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	30	-10000	14	76	1.23	30%	-0.08	8.8	0.53%	0	1.6	65	0
12	May_23_2006	88.04	83.67	83.75	84.18			84.56(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	-10000	9	59	1.39	30%	-0.05	-10.8	0.53%	0	1.6	62	0
13	May_22_2006	88.08	83.64	83.65	83.99			84.61(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	24	-10000	15	50	2.65	32%	-0.08	-23.9	0.53%	0	1.6	60	0
14	May_19_2006	88.15	83.64	83.54	83.66			84.43(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	20	-10000	16	31	2.62	32%	-0.09	-35.6	0.54%	0	1.3	61	0
15	May_18_2006	88.23	83.64	83.44	83.3			84.21(1.36%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.5	4	-10000	7	-5	2.18	32%	-0.09	-50	0.54%	0	0.9	48	0

16	May_17_2006	88.31	83.66	83.33	83.13			83.08(-0.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-14	-10000	-6	-38	1.44	30%	-0.11	-63	0.51%	0	-1	39	0
17	May_16_2006	88.41	83.73	83.35	83.13			83.6(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-9	-10000	0	-35	1.68	31%	-0.06	-64.5	0.52%	0	-0.2	44	0
18	May_15_2006	88.46	83.79	83.33	83.26			82.98(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-17	-10000	-7	-48	1.43	29%	-0.1	-63.8	0.51%	0	-1.2	35	0
19	May_12_2006	88.55	83.88	83.35	83.4			82.65(-0.83%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.2	-23	-10000	-9	-65	1.8	29%	-0.1	-63.6	0.5%	0	-1.9	23	0
20	May_11_2006	88.64	83.97	83.51	83.59			83.34(-0.49%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-13	-10000	2	-56	1.19	30%	-0.08	-71.8	0.49%	0	-1	33	0

21	May_10_2006	88.71	84.05	83.58	83.54			83.75(0.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-12	-10000	5	-62	1.32	30%	-0.09	-83.8	0.49%	0	-0.5	43	0
22	May_9_2006	88.79	84.14	83.6	83.44			83.6(-0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-18	-10000	2	-77	0.34	30%	-0.08	-85.4	0.5%	0	-0.8	41	0
23	May_8_2006	88.86	84.22	83.64	83.4			83.65(0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-20	-10000	4	-90	0.67	30%	-0.08	-94	0.5%	0	-0.8	36	0
24	May_5_2006	88.93	84.29	83.78	83.31			83.6(0.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-29	-10000	-6	-98	1.69	30%	-0.08	-108.2	0.5%	0	-1	38	0
25	May_4_2006	89	84.4	83.89	83.43			83.1(-0.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-30	-10000	-10	-90	0.98	27%		-102.2	0.49%	0	-1.7	37	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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