Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. May. 24, 2006

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $84.6000 (0.05%) ($84.5300 - $85.0000) on Wed. May. 24, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.53% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $84.6000(0.05%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(68%)    LQD(44%)    SHY(42%)    GLD(15%)    REMX(-1%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.265% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-35%)    EWI(-35%)    EWP(-34%)    IWM(-33%)    EWG(-33%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.265% (StdDev 0.53%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $84.48(0.14%)
10 Day Moving Average   $83.85(0.89%)
20 Day Moving Average   $83.71(1.06%)
To recent high   -7.4%
To recent low   2.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 0.68% (three month std-dev: 0.53%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060624

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_24_2006	87.97	83.71	83.85	84.48			84.6(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	30	-10000	14	76	1.23	30%	-0.08	8.8	0.53%	0	1.6	65	0
2	May_23_2006	88.04	83.67	83.75	84.18			84.56(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	-10000	9	59	1.39	30%	-0.05	-10.8	0.53%	0	1.6	62	0
3	May_22_2006	88.08	83.64	83.65	83.99			84.61(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	24	-10000	15	50	2.65	32%	-0.08	-23.9	0.53%	0	1.6	60	0
4	May_19_2006	88.15	83.64	83.54	83.66			84.43(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	20	-10000	16	31	2.62	32%	-0.09	-35.6	0.54%	0	1.3	61	0
5	May_18_2006	88.23	83.64	83.44	83.3			84.21(1.36%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.5	4	-10000	7	-5	2.18	32%	-0.09	-50	0.54%	0	0.9	48	0

6	May_17_2006	88.31	83.66	83.33	83.13			83.08(-0.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-14	-10000	-6	-38	1.44	30%	-0.11	-63	0.51%	0	-1	39	0
7	May_16_2006	88.41	83.73	83.35	83.13			83.6(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-9	-10000	0	-35	1.68	31%	-0.06	-64.5	0.52%	0	-0.2	44	0
8	May_15_2006	88.46	83.79	83.33	83.26			82.98(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-17	-10000	-7	-48	1.43	29%	-0.1	-63.8	0.51%	0	-1.2	35	0
9	May_12_2006	88.55	83.88	83.35	83.4			82.65(-0.83%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.2	-23	-10000	-9	-65	1.8	29%	-0.1	-63.6	0.5%	0	-1.9	23	0
10	May_11_2006	88.64	83.97	83.51	83.59			83.34(-0.49%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-13	-10000	2	-56	1.19	30%	-0.08	-71.8	0.49%	0	-1	33	0

11	May_10_2006	88.71	84.05	83.58	83.54			83.75(0.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-12	-10000	5	-62	1.32	30%	-0.09	-83.8	0.49%	0	-0.5	43	0
12	May_9_2006	88.79	84.14	83.6	83.44			83.6(-0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-18	-10000	2	-77	0.34	30%	-0.08	-85.4	0.5%	0	-0.8	41	0
13	May_8_2006	88.86	84.22	83.64	83.4			83.65(0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-20	-10000	4	-90	0.67	30%	-0.08	-94	0.5%	0	-0.8	36	0
14	May_5_2006	88.93	84.29	83.78	83.31			83.6(0.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-29	-10000	-6	-98	1.69	30%	-0.08	-108.2	0.5%	0	-1	38	0
15	May_4_2006	89	84.4	83.89	83.43			83.1(-0.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-30	-10000	-10	-90	0.98	27%	-0.09	-102.2	0.49%	0	-1.7	37	0

16	May_3_2006	89.08	84.58	84.02	83.63			83.24(-0.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-26	-10000	-7	-84	1.11	30%	-0.08	-93	0.49%	0	-1.6	33	0
17	May_2_2006	89.15	84.74	84.14	83.78			83.42(0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-27	-10000	-7	-85	1.1	30%	-0.07	-93.3	0.51%	0	-1.5	31	0
18	May_1_2006	89.21	84.89	84.29	83.92			83.2(-1.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-35	-10000	-18	-85	1.8	29%	-0.08	-99.1	0.51%	0	-1.9	33	0
19	Apr_28_2006	89.28	85.07	84.45	84.31			84.17(0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-19	-10000	-6	-58	0.81	31%	-0.07	-99.1	0.49%	0	-1	41	0
20	Apr_27_2006	89.34	85.21	84.48	84.43			84.1(0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-18	-10000	-2	-67	1.86	31%	-0.07	-98.2	0.49%	0	-1.2	33	0

21	Apr_26_2006	89.4	85.37	84.58	84.47			83.99(-0.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-25	-10000	-4	-86	1.54	31%	-0.07	-95	0.49%	0	-1.3	28	0
22	Apr_25_2006	89.46	85.57	84.73	84.55			84.13(-1.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-30	-10000	-8	-95	2.07	29%	-0.06	-90	0.49%	0	-1.3	30	0
23	Apr_24_2006	89.51	85.79	84.85	84.71			85.14(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-21	-10000	4	-96	0.99	31%	-0.06	-78.1	0.49%	0	-0.5	34	0
24	Apr_21_2006	89.56	85.97	84.84	84.63			84.8(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-30	-10000	3	-130	1.3	31%	-0.06	-70.9	0.48%	0	-0.8	29	0
25	Apr_20_2006	89.61	86.15	84.94	84.56			84.31(-0.08%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-44	-10000	-7	-155	1.38	29%		-71.5	0.48%	0	-1.2	22	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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