Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 20, 2004

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. Jun. 20, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $82.0700 (0.77%) ($81.6200 - $82.1000) on Thu. May. 20, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.67% (three month average)
RSI   35
Latest Price   $82.0700(0.77%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT declines -0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(69%)    LQD(46%)    SHY(43%)    REMX(-1%)    XLU(-12%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.335% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-34%)    EWI(-33%)    IWM(-32%)    EWP(-32%)    EWG(-32%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.335% (StdDev 0.67%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

Resistance Level   $82.38
5 Day Moving Average   $81.71(0.44%)
10 Day Moving Average   $81.43(0.79%)
20 Day Moving Average   $82.38(-0.38%)
To recent high   -10%
To recent low   1.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.48% (three month std-dev: 0.67%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_20_2004	86.57	82.38	81.43	81.71			82.07(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-7	-10000	10	-57	1.75	36%	-0.05	-50	0.67%	0	-0.3	35	0
2	May_19_2004	86.61	82.49	81.44	81.43			81.44(-0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-19	-10000	4	-88	0.32	33%	-0.05	-54.6	0.66%	0	-0.8	34	0
3	May_18_2004	86.65	82.62	81.55	81.33			81.71(-0.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-25	-10000	2	-107	0.67	33%	-0.06	-60	0.66%	0	-0.7	32	0
4	May_17_2004	86.7	82.71	81.65	81.29			82.03(0.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-26	-10000	7	-126	1.74	33%	-0.06	-64.3	0.66%	0	-0.5	29	0
5	May_14_2004	86.75	82.83	81.77	81.29			81.31(0.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-38	-10000	0	-152	4.09	30%	-0.07	-72	0.65%	0	-1.2	27	0

6	May_13_2004	86.81	82.99	81.99	81.11			80.65(-0.38%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-52	-10000	-13	-167	1.19	26%	-0.07	-79.7	0.64%	0	-1.8	21	0
7	May_12_2004	86.87	83.18	82.26	81.46			80.96(-0.66%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-49	-10000	-12	-158	1.95	26%	-0.06	-85.3	0.65%	0	-1.9	20	0
8	May_11_2004	86.92	83.37	82.53	81.79			81.5(0.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-43	-10000	-10	-142	0.77	31%	-0.07	-91.7	0.65%	0	-1.7	30	0
9	May_10_2004	86.98	83.54	82.83	82.06			81.13(-0.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-44	-10000	-17	-123	0.96	31%	-0.07	-90.2	0.65%	0	-2.2	32	0
10	May_7_2004	87.04	83.78	83.14	82.52			81.32(-1.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-39	-10000	-18	-100	1.76	31%	-0.07	-95.7	0.65%	0	-2.5	28	0

11	May_6_2004	87.1	84.01	83.43	82.99			82.4(-0.27%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-24	-10000	-7	-74	3.16	38%	-0.05	-103.7	0.64%	0	-1.8	32	0
12	May_5_2004	87.14	84.21	83.64	83.17			82.62(-0.28%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-21	-10000	-8	-61	2.24	38%	-0.03	-110.7	0.65%	0	-1.7	37	0
13	May_4_2004	87.17	84.4	83.79	83.38			82.85(-0.68%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-23	-10000	-12	-57	3.95	38%	-0.03	-112.8	0.65%	0	-1.6	35	0
14	May_3_2004	87.2	84.56	83.88	83.71			83.42(-0.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-17	-10000	-6	-48	0.67	40%	-0.02	-120.9	0.65%	0	-1.2	37	0
15	Apr_30_2004	87.22	84.72	83.98	83.87			83.64(0.41%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-15	-10000	-3	-52	0.83	40%	-0.02	-123.8	0.65%	0	-1	32	0

16	Apr_29_2004	87.24	84.97	84.07	83.95			83.3(-0.49%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-23	-10000	-9	-64	2.5	40%	-0.02	-101.3	0.66%	0	-1.3	27	0
17	Apr_28_2004	87.26	85.27	84.17	84.19			83.71(-0.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-19	-10000	-2	-69	1.22	38%	0	-85.1	0.65%	0	-1	27	0
18	Apr_27_2004	87.26	85.53	84.27	84.25			84.5(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-16	-10000	6	-81	1.03	40%	-0.01	-82.9	0.65%	0	-0.6	29	0
19	Apr_26_2004	87.27	85.75	84.3	84.07			84.18(0.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-28	-10000	-2	-106	0.52	40%	-0.02	-84.5	0.66%	0	-0.8	33	0
20	Apr_23_2004	87.29	86.02	84.44	84.11			84.04(-0.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-32	-10000	-4	-116	0.96	37%	0	-80.5	0.66%	0	-1	27	0

21	Apr_22_2004	87.29	86.34	84.63	84.22			84.52(0.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-32	-10000	2	-134	1.02	40%	0	-73.3	0.67%	0	-0.8	20	0
22	Apr_21_2004	87.29	86.66	84.79	84.16			84.02(0.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-47	-10000	-5	-173	0.76	40%	-0.01	-69.6	0.67%	0	-1.1	14	0
23	Apr_20_2004	87.3	87.01	85.04	84.31			83.61(-0.91%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-55	-10000	-8	-194	1.62	40%	0	-66.1	0.67%	0	-1.4	16	0
24	Apr_19_2004	87.3	87.38	85.29	84.55			84.38(-0.21%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.1	-62	-10000	-10	-216	0.68	42%	-0.01	-63.6	0.66%	0	-1.2	17	0
25	Apr_16_2004	87.31	87.68	85.52	84.82			84.56(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-65	-10000	-10	-230	0.99	42%		-61.8	0.67%	0	-1.3	16	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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