Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Mar. 1, 2004

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $88.2700 (-0.44%) ($88.0400 - $88.6400) on Mon. Mar. 1, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.65% (three month average)
RSI   56
Latest Price   $88.2700(-0.44%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(69%)    LQD(46%)    SHY(44%)    REMX(-1%)    XLU(-12%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.325% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-33%)    EWI(-33%)    IWM(-32%)    EWP(-32%)    EWG(-31%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.325% (StdDev 0.65%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $88.21(0.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $88(0.31%)
20 Day Moving Average   $87.61(0.75%)
To recent high   -0.4%
To recent low   4.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 0.65% (three month std-dev: 0.65%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20040401

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_1_2004	85.97	87.61	88	88.21			88.27(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	11	-10000	3	36	0.77	58%	0.03	60	0.65%	0	1.2	56	0
2	Feb_27_2004	85.94	87.55	87.95	88.13			88.66(0.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	16	-10000	9	38	0.84	55%	0.06	56.3	0.67%	0	2	62	0
3	Feb_26_2004	85.89	87.44	87.82	87.87			87.9(-0.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	7	-10000	-0	29	0.4	53%	0.05	27	0.67%	0	0.8	66	0
4	Feb_25_2004	85.85	87.38	87.81	87.88			88.18(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	12	-10000	2	40	0.57	53%	0.03	18.8	0.67%	0	1.4	64	0
5	Feb_24_2004	85.82	87.33	87.71	87.81			88.04(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	11	-10000	2	39	0.94	53%	0.03	14.8	0.67%	0	1.3	61	0

6	Feb_23_2004	85.79	87.27	87.67	87.75			87.88(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	12	-10000	0	46	0.5	53%	0.02	5.2	0.68%	0	1.2	63	0
7	Feb_20_2004	85.77	87.24	87.62	87.74			87.34(-0.69%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	12	-10000	-1	50	1.01	55%	0.01	-3.6	0.67%	0	0.2	53	0
8	Feb_19_2004	85.76	87.29	87.54	87.76			87.95(0.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	14	-10000	1	52	0.67	54%	0	1.6	0.68%	0	1.2	64	0
9	Feb_18_2004	85.76	87.28	87.42	87.73			87.86(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	17	-10000	5	53	0.99	54%	0	3.2	0.69%	0	1.1	61	0
10	Feb_17_2004	85.76	87.26	87.33	87.58			87.74(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	11	-10000	1	41	0.64	54%	-0.01	1.6	0.7%	0	0.9	52	0

11	Feb_13_2004	85.77	87.25	87.21	87.56			87.8(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	12	-10000	3	38	0.51	58%	0.01	6.6	0.7%	0	1	57	0
12	Feb_12_2004	85.76	87.26	87.13	87.48			87.43(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	13	-10000	6	32	0.26	58%	0.01	23.4	0.72%	0	0.3	50	0
13	Feb_11_2004	85.75	87.28	87.03	87.28			87.8(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	6	-10000	7	4	1.34	58%	0.03	33.3	0.72%	0	0.9	44	0
14	Feb_10_2004	85.72	87.26	86.91	87.07			87.15(-0.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-4	-10000	1	-20	0.2	56%	0.02	41.5	0.72%	0	-0.2	45	0
15	Feb_9_2004	85.7	87.25	86.92	87.03			87.64(0.3%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	-0	-10000	7	-22	0.27	56%	0.02	61.5	0.71%	0	0.7	49	0

16	Feb_6_2004	85.68	87.21	86.84	86.8			87.38(1.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-9	-10000	2	-43	0.8	53%	0.02	70.8	0.71%	0	0.3	48	0
17	Feb_5_2004	85.66	87.13	86.82	86.8			86.43(-0.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-14	-10000	0	-56	0.97	51%	0.01	57	0.71%	0	-1	36	0
18	Feb_4_2004	85.65	87.09	87.01	86.74			86.77(-0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-12	-10000	1	-51	0.55	51%	0.02	49.4	0.72%	0	-0.4	42	0
19	Feb_3_2004	85.63	87.02	87.11	86.71			86.94(0.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-16	-10000	-3	-53	0.35	51%	0.04	38	0.72%	0	-0.1	47	0
20	Feb_2_2004	85.6	86.9	87.18	86.8			86.5(-0.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-12	-10000	-2	-42	0.34	51%	0.02	22.1	0.73%	0	-0.4	49	0

21	Jan_30_2004	85.58	86.81	87.29	86.87			87.04(0.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-10	-10000	-2	-34	0.53	53%	0.04	13.2	0.73%	0	0.2	52	0
22	Jan_29_2004	85.55	86.74	87.4	86.94			86.44(-0.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-13	-10000	-13	-12	0.81	51%	0.02	12.9	0.73%	0	-0.2	60	0
23	Jan_28_2004	85.53	86.72	87.56	87.34			86.62(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	3	-10000	-7	32	1.82	51%	0.02	18.1	0.74%	0	-0.1	61	0
24	Jan_27_2004	85.51	86.7	87.66	87.57			87.39(0.62%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	16	-10000	-1	68	0.58	53%	0.06	20.7	0.73%	0	0.5	69	0
25	Jan_26_2004	85.46	86.67	87.62	87.61			86.85(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	20	-10000	-5	93	0.64	53%		21.5	0.73%	0	0.1	72	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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