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     Fri. Sep. 18, 2020



Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Sep. 18, 2020)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $330.6500 (-1.55%) ($327.9700 - $335.4900) on Fri. Sep. 18, 2020.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Downtrend
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY declines -0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY declines -2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY decline at-1% a week (95% probability)
  VT(96%)    IVW(95%)    VUG(93%)    DIA(92%)    XLY(92%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will advance at least -0% in a week (46% probabilities).
  VXX(-60%)    VIXM(-57%)    UUP(-35%)    TLT(-30%)    BJK(-28%)  
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   2 (options are extremely expensive)
 
Hourly Trend   -1.01% [$333.69(-4.05), $337.11(-1.49)]
Last Hour Trend   0.1% [$330.64, $330.32]


SPY Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  38%
Bullish Price Move  1.1%
Bearish Probability  63%
Bearish Price Move  -1.1%
Recommended Position Size  -23%
Latest Price  $330.6500
Next Day Open Price  $331.31(0.2%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $328.93(-0.52%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $327.26 - $332.85
Inflection Point  Yes
Resistance Level  $342.01
5 Day Moving Average  $336.79(-1.82%)
10 Day Moving Average  $336.67(-1.79%)
20 Day Moving Average  $342.01(-3.32%)
To recent high  -7.6%
To recent low  10.2%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  19%
Stage of the Market  Normal
 
One Year Target Price   $366.62 (10.88%)
 


  
 
Short-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-1.7)
Mid-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-0.4)
Risk Appetite  Risk Off (-7)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions  -86.6 k (Fri. Aug. 28, 2020) Decrease
Fed Balance Sheet  6.99 T (Wed. Aug. 26, 2020) Reduction
Fed Fund Rate  1.58% (Wed. Feb. 12, 2020) No Change
Yield Curve  Improving (3)
Credit Spread  Worsening (-23)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 2.05% (three month std-dev: 1.09%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   Hourly Chart   15 Minute Chart

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVRVRVT(RV,IV)VIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Sep_18_2020-7.6%-10.2% -0.2%,-0.1(-0)-2%,-1(0)-0.2%,-0.1-1.50.1%-1.6%-1.602(2.05%,NAN%)2.1104.13   330.65(-1.55%)327.97-335.49Downtrend 328.93(-0.52%)327.26-332.8535
2Sep_17_2020-6.1%-11.9% -0.1%,-0(0)-2%,-1(-0.1)0.1%,0.1-0.3-0.01%-1.3%-100.8(1.92%,1%)2.190.99   335.84(-0.88%)332.99-337.7Downtrend 334.19(-0.49%)332.95-337.1340
3Sep_16_2020-5.3%-12.9% -0.1%,-0.1(-0)-1.8%,-1(-0.1)-0.1%,-00.9-0.05%-0.7%-0.600.6(1.89%,0.95%)1.482.29   338.82(-0.4%)338.52-343.06Downtrend 337.02(-0.53%)335.93-339.6243
4Sep_15_2020-4.9%-13.4% -0%,-0(0)-1.6%,-0.8(0)0.4%,0.20.9-0.18%-0.4%-0.400.7(1.9%,1.04%)0.854.09   340.17(0.51%)339.02-342.02Downtrend 338.78(-0.41%)337.91-340.8248
5Sep_14_2020-5.4%-12.8% -0.1%,-0.1(-0.1)-1.7%,-0.9(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.1-0.6-0.06%-0.1%-0.600.9(1.91%,1.06%)0.867.43   338.46(1.32%)336.93-340.38Downtrend 336.9(-0.46%)335.87-339.2748
 
6Sep_11_2020-6.6%-11.3% -0%,-0(-0.1)-1.3%,-0.7(-0.3)-0.7%,-0.3-0.30.18%0.3%-1.301.1(1.93%,1.07%)0.184.3   334.06(0.05%)331-336.97Downtrend 332.96(-0.33%)331.8-335.6748
7Sep_10_2020-6.7%-11.3% 0.2%,0.1(-0.2)-0.7%,-0.4(-0.5)-1.4%,-0.7-0-0.53%0.6%-1.400.9(1.89%,1.42%)-0.790.32   333.89(-1.74%)332.86-342.53Correction 329.12(-1.43%)328.22-332.6349
8Sep_9_2020-5%-13.2% 0.7%,0.4(-0.1)0.3%,0.2(-0.3)-0.7%,-0.4-2.10%1%-0.500.5(1.83%,1.34%)-0.792.2   339.79(1.97%)336.61-342.46Uptrend Consolidation 340.61(0.24%)340.72-340.255
9Sep_8_2020-6.8%-11.1% 0.9%,0.5(-0.2)0.9%,0.5(-0.4)-0.9%,-0.5-3.3-0.38%1.2%-1.401.3(1.93%,1.64%)-1.2115.93   333.21(-2.73%)332.88-338.06Uptrend Consolidation 335.84(0.79%)336.43-334.0748
10Sep_4_2020-4.2%-14.2% 1.3%,0.7(-0.1)1.6%,0.8(-0.2)-0.5%,-0.2-1.80.52%1.5%-0.101.2(1.91%,1.08%)-1.1142.28   342.57(-0.82%)334.87-347.83Uptrend Consolidation 343.05(0.14%)342.57-344.5359
 
11Sep_3_2020-3.4%-15.1% 1.6%,0.8(-0.1)2%,1(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.10.6-0.14%1.6%0.401.6(1.97%,1.47%)-2.4150.77   345.39(-3.44%)342.59-356.38Uptrend 347.88(0.72%)344.88-349.1464
12Sep_2_20200%-19.2% 1.8%,0.9(0)2.1%,1(0.1)0.6%,0.30.90.16%1.6%2.202.1(2.05%,0.88%)0.271.1   357.7(1.45%)353.43-358.72Breakout 360.35(0.74%)354.58-362.8389
13Sep_1_20200%-17.5% 1.7%,0.9(0)1.9%,1(0)0.5%,0.30.30.07%1.4%1.901.3(1.86%,0.74%)054.9   352.6(0.94%)349.24-352.7Overbought 348.4(-1.19%)342.74-356.8784
14Aug_31_2020-0.4%-16.4% 1.7%,1(0)1.8%,1(0.1)0.4%,0.20.60.01%1.3%1.601(1.8%,0.91%)0.168.05   349.31(-0.36%)349.08-351.28Uptrend 351.37(0.59%)347.43-353.0786
15Aug_28_20200%-16.8% 1.7%,0.9(0)1.7%,0.9(0.1)0.6%,0.40.90.11%1.2%201.2(1.82%,0.82%)0.851.25   350.58(0.65%)348.15-350.72Growing Uptrend 353.42(0.81%)348.19-354.7278
 
16Aug_27_20200%-16.1% 1.6%,0.9(0.1)1.4%,0.8(0.1)0.6%,0.31.20.15%1.2%1.801.2(1.81%,0.97%)0.757.8   348.33(0.22%)346.53-349.9Growing Uptrend 350.66(0.67%)346.13-351.7978
17Aug_26_20200%-16.2% 1.5%,0.8(0.1)1.2%,0.6(0.1)0.6%,0.31.20.05%1.2%1.901(1.77%,0.88%)1.350.48   347.57(1%)344.17-347.86Uptrend 349.03(0.42%)345.27-350.6477
18Aug_25_20200%-15.1% 1.3%,0.7(0.1)1%,0.5(0.1)0.3%,0.21.20.09%1.2%1.501.1(1.79%,0.77%)1.638.18   344.12(0.35%)342.27-344.21Uptrend 345.29(0.34%)342.27-346.5977
19Aug_24_20200%-14.7% 1.2%,0.7(0.1)0.9%,0.5(-0)0.3%,0.20.6-0.01%1.2%1.500.9(1.79%,0.72%)1.749.7   342.92(1.01%)341.06-342.99Uptrend 343.88(0.28%)341.08-345.0778
20Aug_21_20200%-15.1% 1.1%,0.6(0)0.9%,0.5(-0.1)0.2%,0.1-00.1%1.3%1.100.7(1.83%,0.74%)1.756.25   339.48(0.35%)337.55-339.72Uptrend 340.57(0.32%)338.08-341.6577
 
21Aug_20_2020-0.1%-14.7% 1.1%,0.6(-0)1.1%,0.6(-0.1)0.1%,0-00.1%1.4%100.7(1.85%,0.79%)1.541.58   338.28(0.31%)335.22-338.79Uptrend Consolidation 336.76(-0.45%)335.78-339.7479
22Aug_19_2020-0.4%-15.5% 1.1%,0.6(-0)1.3%,0.7(-0.1)-0%,-00.3-0.15%1.5%100.6(1.81%,0.87%)1.667.69   337.23(-0.42%)336.62-339.61Uptrend Consolidation 335.81(-0.42%)334.79-338.8681
23Aug_18_20200%-16% 1.2%,0.6(0)1.6%,0.9(-0.1)0.4%,0.20.30%1.6%1.300.5(1.79%,0.67%)1.638.88   338.64(0.22%)336.61-339.1Uptrend 340.3(0.49%)337.13-341.6780
24Aug_17_20200%-15.7% 1.2%,0.7(-0.1)1.7%,1(-0.1)0.1%,0.10-0.03%1.5%1.400.3(1.73%,0.72%)1.836.43   337.91(0.32%)337.48-338.34Uptrend 339.26(0.4%)336.3-340.5483
25Aug_14_2020-0.2%-18.2% 1.3%,0.7(-0)1.8%,1(-0.1)0.1%,0.10.3-0.1%1.5%1.400.2(1.7%,0.63%)1.851.76   336.84(0%)335.63-337.42Uptrend 338.36(0.45%)335.26-339.775
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVRVRVTVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
 
 
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