Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Mar. 5, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Mar. 5, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $383.5600 (1.82%) ($372.6400 - $384.7600) on Fri. Mar. 5, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Growing Downtrend
Trend Narrative   After Bottom
Average Daily Price Swing   $4.45 (1.15% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.93% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   -0.1% (StdDev 0.93%)
Daily Moving Force   -0.3%
Rebound Strength   None(0%)
Trend   -0.14%
Trend Strength   -0.8%
RSI   40
Momentum   1.2
Latest Price   $383.5600(1.82%)
Forecasted Low Price   381.26(-0.6%)
Forecasted High Price   384.33(0.2%)
Direction of Next Movement   Lower(-0.8%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Rebound   1.7% ((390.21))
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   0.8%
Hourly Trend -0.5% [$379.4(-1.75), $382.69(-1.59)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   3
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY decline at-0.3% a week (96% probability)
VT(97%)    IVW(95%)    HYG(94%)    IWF(94%)    XLK(94%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.1% in a week (70% probabilities).
VXX(-85%)    VIXM(-75%)    CNCR(-14%)    UUP(-13%)    USO(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 0

Relative Volatility -1.1 (options are cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.5% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

Next Day Open Price   $386.4(0.74%)
Inflection Point   Yes
Resistance Level   $387.54
5 Day Moving Average   $383.56(0%)
10 Day Moving Average   $384.55(-0.26%)
20 Day Moving Average   $387.54(-1.03%)
To recent high   -2.3%
To recent low   5.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

Advance Ratio   91%
Stage of the Market   Normal

One Year Target Price    $397.21 (3.56%)

Short-term volatility trend   Equity Bullish (-0.2)
Mid-term volatility trend   Equity Bullish (-0.6)
Risk Appetite    (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Balance Sheet   7.363 T (Mon. Dec. 14, 2020) Expansion
Fed Fund Rate   0.09% (Wed. Dec. 23, 2020) No Change
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.15% (three month std-dev: 0.93% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart Hourly Chart 15 Minute Chart

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Mar_5_2021	387.54 (0%)	384.55 (-0.2%)	383.56 (0.2%)	382.69	379.4(0%)	383.56(1.82%)	372.64-384.76	-1.2(-0.9)	0	-0.3%	-0.1%	0%	-0.14%	-0.8%	40	1.2	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.4%)	3	0	-0.3	After Bottom	384.1(0.14%)	381.91-385.87	151.67	-2.3%-5.2%
2	Mar_4_2021	387.7 (0%)	385.16 (-0.2%)	382.92 (-0.3%)	384.28	381.15(0%)	376.72(-1.23%)	371.88-384	-1.2(-2.5)	-1.8	-0.8%	-0.3%	0%	-0.14%	-0.7%	36	1.2	Breakdown	Lower(-0.5%)	3	0	0.3	Correction	372.73(-1.06%)	372.05-375.45	181.84	-4.1%-3.3%
3	Mar_3_2021	388.06 (0%)	386.62 (-0.2%)	384.05 (-0.5%)	385.2	385.98(0%)	381.42(-1.32%)	381.31-386.83	-0.7(-1.7)	-2.6	-0.3%	-0.2%	0%	-0.12%	-0.4%	40	1.1	Growing Downtrend Downtrend Pop	Range(0.2%)	3	0	0.1	Correction	378.22(-0.84%)	377.67-380.48	116.93	-2.9%-4.6%
4	Mar_2_2021	388.12 (0.2%)	387.73 (-0.2%)	386.14 (-0.1%)	385.83	387.4(0%)	386.54(-0.78%)	386-390.07	-0.2(-0.4)	0	0.4%	-0.1%	0%	-0.06%	-0.1%	45	1.1	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(0.7%)	3	0	0.5	Correction	384.34(-0.57%)	383.86-386.16	78.7	-1.6%-6%
5	Mar_1_2021	387.68 (0%)	388.28 (-0.2%)	386.33 (0.1%)	386.03	384.42(0%)	389.58(2.42%)	380.57-390.92	-0.1(0.4)	1	0.1%	0%	0%	-0.06%	0.2%	48	1.4	N/A	Range(0.1%)	3	0	0.3	Correction	388.61(-0.25%)	388.19-389.12	104.44	-0.8%-6.8%

6	Feb_26_2021	386.78 (0%)	388.54 (-0.2%)	385.83 (-0.5%)	385.69	384.27(0%)	380.36(-0.53%)	378.23-385.58	-0.2(-1.1)	-2	-0.6%	-0.2%	0%	-0.06%	0.5%	40	1.9	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.5%)	4	0	0.4	Correction	375.91(-1.17%)	375.08-379.19	151.79	-3.1%-5.1%
7	Feb_25_2021	386.73 (0%)	389.66 (-0%)	387.77 (-0.4%)	387.06	387.64(0%)	382.37(-2.42%)	380.78-391.88	0.2(-0.7)	-2.1	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0%	0.8%	47	1.9	N/A	Higher(1%)	5	0	0.5	Correction	379.39(-0.78%)	378.73-382.07	145.32	-2.6%-5.6%
8	Feb_24_2021	386.42 (0%)	390.52 (0%)	389.46 (-0%)	388.22	387.12(0%)	391.84(1.11%)	385.27-392.23	0.5(0.8)	1.1	0.1%	0.1%	0%	0.06%	1.1%	75	2.3	Correction	Range(0.2%)	5	0	1.1	Uptrend	392.23(0.1%)	390.83-392.85	71.92	-0.2%-8.2%
9	Feb_23_2021	386 (0%)	390.35 (0%)	389.58 (-0.3%)	388.48	386.49(0%)	387.52(0.11%)	380.2-388.95	0.6(0.2)	-0.6	-0.5%	-0%	0%	0.1%	1.1%	71	2.2	Correction	Lower(-0.5%)	6	0	1.5	Uptrend Consolidation	387.25(-0.07%)	386.87-388.39	106.6	-1.3%-8.4%
10	Feb_22_2021	385.84 (0.2%)	390.69 (0.2%)	390.56 (-0.3%)	389.94	389.32(0%)	387.08(-0.76%)	386.74-389.62	0.8(0.2)	-2.6	-0.3%	-0%	0%	0.16%	1.3%	78	2.2	Downtrend Reversal	Range(0.1%)	7	0	1.7	Uptrend Consolidation	387.04(-0.01%)	386.43-388.82	66.84	-1.4%-8.3%

11	Feb_19_2021	385.63 (0.2%)	390.82 (0.4%)	391.69 (-0%)	391.3	390.46(0%)	390.05(-0.2%)	389.55-392.38	1.1(0.7)	-1.2	%	0.1%	0%	0.26%	1.3%	90	2.2	Correction	Range(0.2%)	8	0	1.9	Uptrend	392.82(0.71%)	389.23-394.34	82.29	-0.7%-9.8%
12	Feb_18_2021	385.32 (0.2%)	390.48 (0.4%)	391.82 (0%)	391.37	390.56(0%)	390.82(-0.42%)	387.74-391.52	1.2(0.9)	0	-0.2%	0.2%	0%	0.3%	1.3%	69	2.1	Confirmed Correction	Range(0.2%)	9	0	1.9	Uptrend	393.95(0.8%)	389.84-395.71	59.41	-0.5%-10%
13	Feb_17_2021	384.94 (0.2%)	389.67 (0.4%)	391.67 (0.1%)	391.51	392.13(0%)	392.45(0.02%)	389.33-392.66	1.4(1.2)	0.9	%	0.2%	0%	0.34%	1.2%	75	2.1	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	10	0	2.1	Uptrend	395.59(0.8%)	391.01-397.58	52.29	-0.1%-10.4%
14	Feb_16_2021	384.24 (0.2%)	388.59 (0.4%)	391.24 (0.1%)	391.33	392.18(0%)	392.38(-0.09%)	391.53-394.17	1.5(1.3)	0.9	0.2%	0.3%	0%	0.32%	1.1%	58	2	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.5%)	10	0	2	Growing Uptrend	396.11(0.95%)	390.96-397.41	50.46	-0.1%-10.4%
15	Feb_12_2021	383.4 (0.2%)	387.05 (0.4%)	390.87 (0.3%)	390.56	390.89(0%)	392.73(0.52%)	389.77-392.9	1.6(1.5)	3.8	0.1%	0.5%	0%	0.3%	1%	57	1.9	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.6%)	9	0	2.1	Growing Uptrend	395.95(0.82%)	391.33-397.1	49.63	0%-11.2%

16	Feb_11_2021	382.66 (0.2%)	384.87 (0.2%)	389.87 (0.2%)	390.15	390.48(0%)	390.71(0.16%)	388.1-391.69	1.6(1.4)	3.5	0.1%	0.3%	0%	0.22%	0.6%	57	1.8	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.4%)	8	0	2.2	Growing Uptrend	393.02(0.59%)	389.39-393.94	42.43	0%-10.6%
17	Feb_10_2021	382.08 (0.2%)	383.56 (0.2%)	388.95 (0.4%)	389.47	390.24(0%)	390.08(-0.06%)	387.5-392.28	1.7(1.5)	3.7	0.3%	0.3%	0%	0.2%	0.4%	55	1.7	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.6%)	7	0	2.2	Growing Uptrend	392.03(0.5%)	388.69-392.87	58.61	-0.1%-10.4%
18	Feb_9_2021	381.48 (0.2%)	381.99 (0.2%)	387.3 (0.5%)	387.98	389.83(0%)	390.31(-0.05%)	389.17-390.89	1.6(1.7)	3.3	0.4%	0.2%	0%	0.12%	0.1%	55	1.6	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.6%)	6	0	2	Growing Uptrend	391.48(0.3%)	388.73-392.16	35.28	-0.1%-10.5%
19	Feb_8_2021	380.86 (0.2%)	381.21 (0%)	385.49 (0.8%)	386.02	388.71(0%)	390.52(0.72%)	388.35-390.55	1.4(2)	3.8	0.6%	0.2%	0%	0.1%	0.1%	61	1.5	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.8%)	6	0	1.8	Breakout	391.18(0.17%)	388.82-392.22	37.75	0%-10.6%
20	Feb_5_2021	380.34 (0.2%)	380.45 (0%)	382.63 (0.9%)	383.83	386.14(0%)	387.71(0.41%)	386.49-388.47	1(1.8)	3.3	0.8%	0.1%	0%	0.08%	0%	62	1.3	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.9%)	5	0	1.7	Growing Uptrend	388.49(0.2%)	386.43-388.99	48.42	0%-10.7%

21	Feb_4_2021	379.87 (0%)	379.86 (-0%)	379.1 (0.5%)	380.51	383.33(0%)	386.11(1.12%)	382.78-386.24	0.4(1.6)	5.2	0.6%	0.1%	0%	0%	-0%	57	1.2	N/A	Higher(0.7%)	5	0	1.5	N/A	384.99(-0.29%)	382.89-386.7	46.67	0%-12.4%
22	Feb_3_2021	379.24 (0%)	379.55 (-0%)	377.4 (0.4%)	377.54	381.53(0%)	381.84(0.15%)	380.48-383.7	-0.1(0.7)	1	0.7%	0%	0%	-0.02%	0.1%	52	1.1	N/A	Higher(0.7%)	5	0	1.7	Growing Uptrend	381.76(-0.02%)	381.36-381.84	51.03	-0.7%-13.6%
23	Feb_2_2021	378.74 (0%)	379.69 (-0%)	375.92 (-0.1%)	376.49	377.69(0%)	381.25(1.33%)	379.6-383.22	-0.4(0.6)	0.5	0.6%	0.1%	0%	-0.04%	0.2%	53	1.2	N/A	Higher(0.7%)	5	0	1.4	Correction	380.14(-0.29%)	379.6-380.84	63.56	-0.8%-15.5%
24	Feb_1_2021	378.15 (0%)	379.42 (-0%)	376.42 (-0.4%)	375.44	373.55(0%)	376.23(1.66%)	370.38-377.34	-0.5(-0.4)	-0.7	-0.5%	0%	0%	-0.04%	0.3%	48	1.3	N/A	Lower(-0.5%)	4	0	1.1	Correction	373.6(-0.7%)	373.03-375.77	75.14	-2.1%-13.9%
25	Jan_29_2021	378.07 (0%)	379.45 (-0%)	378.06 (-0.7%)	377.99	375.29(0%)	370.07(-2%)	368.27-376.67	-0.2(-1.7)	-2.7	-0.6%	-0.2%	0%	-0%	0.4%	37	1.4	N/A	Range(0.2%)	4	0	0.2	Correction	367.81(-0.61%)	367.32-369.84	125.85	-3.7%-13.3%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low