Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. May. 20, 2024

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jul. 5, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $530.0600 (0.12%) ($529.1700 - $531.5600) on Mon. May. 20, 2024.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.72% (three month average)
RSI   92
Latest Price   $530.0600(0.12%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Rotation from value to growth for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(86%)    QQQ(83%)    IWO(66%)    SMH(62%)    DIA(61%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.36% in a week (0% probabilities).
VXX(-56%)    UUP(-46%)    VIXM(-33%)    TAN(15%)    XLE(18%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.36% (StdDev 0.72%)
Hourly BBV 0.2 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $528.26(0.34%)
10 Day Moving Average   $524.05(1.15%)
20 Day Moving Average   $515.86(2.75%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.4
One Month Target Price   > $531.12
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $512

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's 0.2% away from the target price of 531.12.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.95% (three month std-dev: 0.72%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 16 Average positive next day return: 0.49%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.36%(50%) Sample size 16 Average positive next three day return: 0.91%(69%) Average negative next three day return: -0.75%(31%) Sample size 16 Average positive next weekly return: 1.46%(44%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.14%(56%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20240620

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_20_2024	503.61	515.86	524.05	528.26	529.06	529.43	530.06(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	134	10	108	213	37.72	63%	0.11	73.3	0.72%	0.2	1.4	92	1.1
2	May_17_2024	503.05	514.34	522.7	526.43	527.08	529.21	529.45(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	142	30	119	212	59.13	63%	0.11	65.8	0.73%	-0.3	1.5	72	1.2
3	May_16_2024	502.51	512.63	520.91	524.7	525.25	528.69	528.69(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	334	50	347	294	49.99	63%	0.11	56.5	0.74%	0.7	1.6	72	1.4
4	May_15_2024	501.97	511.14	518.6	523	523.14	524.95	529.78(1.24%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	306	30	317	273	59.36	64%	0.11	45.7	0.74%	1.7	2	77	1.5
5	May_14_2024	501.41	509.62	515.69	520.48	520.86	521.82	523.3(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	115	20	99	161	57.43	64%	0.05	36	0.73%	3	1.6	70	1

6	May_13_2024	501.18	508.58	513.6	519.25	519.41	521.34	520.91(0.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	149	30	144	165	36.66	61%	0.1	25.5	0.73%	0.3	1.6	68	1
7	May_10_2024	500.69	507.7	512.45	518.38	518.4	519.91	520.84(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	228	20	234	208	52.12	61%	0.1	15.4	0.75%	1	1.8	73	1
8	May_9_2024	500.19	507.1	511.12	516.47	516.86	517.47	520.17(0.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	141	10	131	170	43.57	61%	0.11	3.6	0.76%	1.9	1.9	76	1
9	May_8_2024	499.65	506.86	509.41	513.44	514.93	516.88	517.19(0.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	182	40	185	173	41.93	61%	0.09	-5.4	0.76%	0.6	1.6	67	1
10	May_7_2024	499.21	506.6	508.17	510.08	511.75	516.24	517.14(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	342	70	379	231	52.33	62%	0.09	-23.3	0.76%	1	1.6	65	0.9

11	May_6_2024	498.74	506.59	506.94	507.04	508.01	512.98	516.57(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	419	70	476	247	47.13	62%	0.1	-34.6	0.76%	1.2	1.5	61	1.2
12	May_3_2024	498.24	506.57	505.2	505.74	505.62	507.26	511.29(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	264	20	298	160	72.62	60%	0.08	-42	0.75%	1.4	0.7	56	0.6
13	May_2_2024	497.83	506.84	503.61	505.14	505.29	503.04	505.03(0.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-83	-30	-102	-27	62.33	60%	0.07	-47.5	0.74%	0.6	-0.3	43	-0
14	May_1_2024	497.47	507.22	503.08	504.83	506.27	503.98	500.35(-0.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-201	-20	-232	-108	80.03	61%	0.07	-52	0.74%	-0.1	-0.9	32	-0.2
15	Apr_30_2024	497.1	508.16	503.16	505.84	505.94	507.53	501.98(-1.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-66	20	-70	-53	77.23	57%	0.08	-48	0.78%	-2.2	-0.8	38	-0.5

16	Apr_29_2024	496.68	508.98	503.32	506.57	505.96	508.55	510.06(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	287	30	350	97	46.35	62%	0.1	-44.2	0.75%	0.5	0.1	39	0.1
17	Apr_26_2024	496.16	509.52	502.66	504.51	504.5	504.34	508.26(0.95%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.5	119	-0	164	-16	64.26	62%	0.1	-50	0.76%	1.2	-0.2	38	-0.1
18	Apr_25_2024	495.64	510.2	502.77	501.89	502.32	503.36	503.49(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-66	20	-43	-135	68.69	60%	0.1	-55.6	0.75%	-0.1	-0.8	33	-1
19	Apr_24_2024	495.13	511.16	504.06	501.09	501.34	504.65	505.41(-0.05%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	205	50	276	-10	55.63	60%	0.1	-56.1	0.75%	0.8	-0.6	42	-0.3
20	Apr_23_2024	494.62	511.83	504.82	500.12	500.2	501.27	505.65(1.19%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	157	20	225	-48	64.37	60%	0.1	-58.4	0.75%	1.4	-0.7	37	-0.5

21	Apr_22_2024	494.11	512.53	506.04	499.7	500.03	498.03	499.72(0.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-151	-30	-135	-200	67.67	58%	0.09	-56.6	0.74%	0.6	-1.4	31	-1.1
22	Apr_19_2024	493.69	513.64	507.91	500.64	501.39	499.13	495.16(-0.87%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-328	-30	-342	-284	102.09	59%	0.08	-50.9	0.73%	-2	-2.2	23	-2.3
23	Apr_18_2024	493.29	515.06	510.29	503.78	504.48	502.02	499.52(-0.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-241	-30	-246	-226	74.35	62%	0.1	-43.1	0.74%	-1.5	-2.1	25	-1.6
24	Apr_17_2024	492.82	516.17	511.76	507.47	507.36	503.65	500.55(-0.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-344	-50	-372	-260	75.78	62%	0.1	-29.9	0.74%	-1.2	-2.4	25	-2
25	Apr_16_2024	492.34	517.03	513.72	510.19	510.69	506.94	503.53(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-356	-50	-393	-246	73.22	62%		-23.8	0.74%	-0.9	-2.5	35	-2.2
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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