Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Feb. 13, 2023

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Apr. 26, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $412.8300 (1.17%) ($408.2400 - $412.9700) on Mon. Feb. 13, 2023.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.12% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $412.8300(1.17%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(95%)    VT(95%)    IWF(94%)    VUG(93%)    IVE(91%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.56% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-62%)    VXX(-26%)    UUP(-25%)    SHY(-15%)    TBT(-12%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.56% (StdDev 1.12%)
Hourly BBV 1.1 ()
Intraday Trend 1%

5 Day Moving Average   $410.74(0.51%)
10 Day Moving Average   $410.98(0.45%)
20 Day Moving Average   $405.21(1.88%)
To recent high   -0.9%
To recent low   9.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1
One Month Target Price   > $419.44
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $395.95

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is -0.9% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's 1.6% away from the target price of 419.44.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.85% (three month std-dev: 1.12%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -1.24%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0.27%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -5.52%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0.97%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.27%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20230313

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_13_2023	387.95	405.21	410.98	410.74	410.02	408.76	412.83(1.17%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	11	-30	-2	51	64.72	64%	0.12	56.2	1.12%	1.1	1	63	0.1
2	Feb_10_2023	387.48	404.48	409.85	410.14	410.36	408.66	408.04(0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-109	-30	-142	-8	70.71	70%	0.09	62.1	1.11%	-0.8	0.5	59	0.2
3	Feb_9_2023	387.13	403.94	409.68	411.01	411.09	411.28	407.09(-0.87%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.5	-29	0	-51	38	78.41	65%	0.08	76.2	1.31%	-2.3	0.4	63	-0.9
4	Feb_8_2023	386.83	403.39	409.52	412.94	411.71	412.05	410.65(-1.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	42	-0	23	97	75.95	65%	0.07	89.9	1.33%	-0.3	1	72	-0.8
5	Feb_7_2023	386.56	402.4	408.56	412.97	412.62	410.89	415.11(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	34	-30	11	104	90.73	65%	0.07	93.4	1.32%	1.3	1.6	73	-0.9

6	Feb_6_2023	386.28	401.04	407.07	411.25	411.61	411.38	409.83(-0.61%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-38	-0	-72	65	59.98	65%	0.06	92.3	1.32%	-1.4	1.1	61	-1.1
7	Feb_3_2023	386.03	399.96	406.18	409.43	410.11	414.35	412.35(-1.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	157	80	160	149	94.63	65%	0.06	87.5	1.33%	-0	1.6	62	-0.9
8	Feb_2_2023	385.8	398.34	404.55	408.09	407.41	411.85	416.78(1.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	269	70	293	195	101.36	59%	0.06	79.9	1.33%	1.2	2.2	68	-1.4
9	Feb_1_2023	385.57	396.66	401.75	405.69	404.79	405.86	410.8(1.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	133	10	140	112	100.8	57%	0.05	79.9	1.36%	3.4	1.8	66	-1.5
10	Jan_31_2023	385.39	395.16	399.8	403.6	403.59	402.97	406.48(1.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	20	-10	10	50	86.58	57%	-0.01	72.2	1.35%	0.4	1.4	67	-1.8

11	Jan_30_2023	385.44	393.95	398.86	402.34	402.07	403.73	400.72(-1.22%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	10	30	-3	48	73.95	55%	-0.02	72.3	1.35%	-1.5	0.9	66	-1.8
12	Jan_27_2023	385.5	393.1	398.62	402.32	401.38	404.21	405.68(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	168	40	180	132	68.27	58%	0.02	69.2	1.37%	1.3	1.6	73	-1.7
13	Jan_26_2023	385.44	391.66	397.68	400.36	399.8	400.41	404.75(1.1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	134	10	138	122	72	58%	0.02	62.8	1.37%	1.6	1.8	78	-1.6
14	Jan_25_2023	385.37	390.47	396.69	397.16	397.15	398.55	400.35(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	41	20	30	72	84.43	61%	0.03	51.5	1.37%	0.4	1.3	68	-1.6
15	Jan_24_2023	385.27	389.57	395.72	395.39	395.01	399.19	400.2(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	141	70	148	119	58.77	61%	0.04	46.1	1.38%	0.7	1.4	70	-1.5

16	Jan_23_2023	385.12	388.58	394.51	394.91	394.01	395.74	400.63(1.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	171	20	182	136	84.01	61%	0.02	40.3	1.39%	1.2	1.7	68	-1.6
17	Jan_20_2023	385.03	387.8	393.24	394.49	393.87	390.82	395.88(1.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-44	-60	-71	38	91.52	64%	0	33.3	1.41%	1.2	1.2	64	-1.3
18	Jan_19_2023	385.03	387.02	391.7	394.71	394.77	392.27	388.76(-0.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-159	-40	-208	-10	86.66	61%	-0.02	20.5	1.4%	-1	0.3	66	-1.2
19	Jan_18_2023	385.1	386.6	391.31	396.06	396.53	396.91	391.49(-1.58%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	20	10	-2	85	99.38	61%	-0.02	13.5	1.4%	-2	0.7	61	-1.1
20	Jan_17_2023	385.17	386.18	390.34	395.88	396.08	397.27	397.77(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	106	20	100	125	62.4	67%	-0.07	5.8	1.39%	0.7	1.7	66	-1.6

21	Jan_13_2023	385.43	385.68	388.79	393.9	393.66	396.14	398.56(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	90	40	84	107	63.86	66%	-0.05	-7.6	1.44%	1.5	2.1	68	-1.9
22	Jan_12_2023	385.64	385.57	387.2	391.8	392.08	394.89	396.96(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	180	50	195	136	90.01	66%	-0.05	-14.5	1.48%	1.2	2.1	59	-1.6
23	Jan_11_2023	385.82	385.67	385.15	388.28	389.26	391.17	395.52(1.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	128	40	140	90	68.62	66%	-0.04	-24.7	1.48%	1.6	1.8	63	-1.9
24	Jan_10_2023	385.99	385.72	383.65	385.93	385.95	389.27	390.58(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	91	60	100	63	65.04	66%	-0.06	-32.5	1.47%	0.2	0.8	60	-2.1
25	Jan_9_2023	386.23	385.79	382.81	384	384.58	387.34	387.86(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	174	50	201	92	73.78	66%		-46.2	1.48%	0.6	0.3	54	-2
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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