Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Sep. 15, 2022

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Mon. Apr. 29, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $390.1200 (-1.14%) ($388.7800 - $395.9600) on Thu. Sep. 15, 2022.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.41% (three month average)
RSI   30
Latest Price   $390.1200(-1.14%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY declines -0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(97%)    IWF(97%)    IVE(94%)    IWD(93%)    QQQ(93%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.705% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-22%)    VIXM(-19%)    TBT(-15%)    VXX(-4%)    EDOC(9%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.705% (StdDev 1.41%)
Hourly BBV -1.8 ()
Intraday Trend -0.7%

Resistance Level   $403.64
5 Day Moving Average   $399.08(-2.25%)
10 Day Moving Average   $397.32(-1.81%)
20 Day Moving Average   $403.64(-3.35%)
To recent high   -9.2%
To recent low   6.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 2.7% (three month std-dev: 1.41%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 1.68%(52%) Average negative next day return: -1.18%(48%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 2.62%(56%) Average negative next three day return: -2.6%(44%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 3.8%(54%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.4%(46%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20221015

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_15_2022	400.03	403.64	397.32	399.08	398.37	393.02	390.12(-1.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-153	-100	-173	-93	85.79	57%	-0.07	-59.6	1.41%	-1.8	-1.2	30	0.9
2	Sep_14_2022	400.31	405.43	397.93	401.13	401.59	395.78	394.6(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-263	-100	-301	-150	84.56	57%	-0.05	-49.8	1.42%	-1.2	-0.9	37	0.9
3	Sep_13_2022	400.53	407.13	398.33	401.77	402.49	403.72	393.1(-4.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-105	30	-112	-84	120.13	51%	-0.09	-39.2	1.42%	-2	-1.1	37	1.2
4	Sep_12_2022	400.9	408.89	399.3	401.3	401.69	407.41	410.97(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	270	100	334	79	68.88	58%	-0.04	-34.1	1.39%	1.1	0.2	46	0.9
5	Sep_9_2022	401.05	409.6	398.53	397.56	397.1	401.27	406.6(1.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	179	70	237	4	76.5	50%	-0.08	-36.1	1.44%	1.5	-0.2	36	1

6	Sep_8_2022	401.38	410.24	399.51	395.52	394.91	395.97	400.38(0.65%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.4	81	10	128	-59	80.63	48%	-0.11	-38.6	1.45%	1.2	-0.7	27	1.3
7	Sep_7_2022	401.83	411.23	400.7	394.48	394	392.92	397.78(1.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-76	-20	-51	-149	70.73	48%	-0.12	-39.3	1.46%	1.3	-1	26	1.3
8	Sep_6_2022	402.32	412	402.09	394.57	394.9	393.86	390.76(-0.38%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-119	-20	-97	-186	75.92	46%	-0.12	-39.7	1.44%	-0.9	-1.7	17	1.4
9	Sep_2_2022	402.81	413.23	404.38	396.94	397.13	395.07	392.27(-1.05%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-101	-30	-75	-179	99.45	48%	-0.12	-38.3	1.45%	-1	-1.8	19	1.6
10	Sep_1_2022	403.28	414.42	407.35	399.55	398.85	395.94	396.42(0.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-224	-60	-222	-229	77.86	48%	-0.12	-35.1	1.46%	-0.4	-1.7	23	1.5

11	Aug_31_2022	403.76	415.42	410.44	404.17	403.46	399.19	395.18(-0.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-198	-80	-200	-191	75.42	48%	-0.11	-21.7	1.46%	-1.1	-2.1	32	1.9
12	Aug_30_2022	404.2	416.5	413.62	407.87	408.28	401.76	398.21(-1.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-259	-110	-279	-199	85.28	48%	-0.11	-5.3	1.46%	-1.2	-2.1	33	2.1
13	Aug_29_2022	404.63	417.14	416.81	410.69	411.41	407.74	402.63(-0.66%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-269	-60	-299	-177	65.05	48%	-0.12	14.1	1.47%	-1.1	-1.9	47	2.2
14	Aug_26_2022	405.1	417.67	419.5	412.84	413.95	414.8	405.31(-3.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-36	20	-33	-46	101.62	54%	-0.11	33.9	1.5%	-2.2	-1.7	47	2
15	Aug_25_2022	405.55	418.1	421.78	416.2	414.58	415.09	419.51(1.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	25	-0	30	8	50.52	58%	-0.07	58.6	1.46%	2.1	0.2	58	1.2

16	Aug_24_2022	405.82	417.48	421.89	417.88	416.14	413.1	413.67(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-95	-60	-115	-36	48.98	58%	-0.1	63.8	1.45%	0.4	-0.5	52	1.8
17	Aug_23_2022	406.21	416.96	422.64	420.48	419.67	414.07	412.35(-0.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-212	-100	-258	-73	48.83	60%	-0.11	64.2	1.45%	-0.9	-0.5	51	2.1
18	Aug_22_2022	406.67	416.04	422.78	423.95	423.06	419.19	413.35(-2.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-233	-70	-289	-63	77.5	60%	-0.1	68.4	1.47%	-1.5	-0.3	60	1
19	Aug_19_2022	407.08	415.28	422.95	427.05	426.55	425.28	422.14(-1.34%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-49	-20	-79	43	67.81	63%	-0.08	78.1	1.44%	-1.6	0.6	66	-0
20	Aug_18_2022	407.39	413.99	422.18	428.04	427.44	426.93	427.89(0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	12	-10	-11	79	48.8	58%	-0.08	83.8	1.44%	0.4	1.2	72	-0.7

21	Aug_17_2022	407.7	412.52	420.81	426.46	426.73	427.82	426.65(-0.71%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	40	20	24	89	63.36	59%	-0.09	88.6	1.52%	-0.5	1.2	76	-0.7
22	Aug_16_2022	408.06	410.93	419.56	425.13	425.51	427.95	429.7(0.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	136	40	135	139	58.48	59%	-0.07	91.9	1.54%	1.1	1.6	83	-1.2
23	Aug_15_2022	408.33	409.04	417.38	421.46	422.99	425.64	428.86(0.41%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	164	50	168	150	53.74	59%	-0.06	85.1	1.54%	1.6	1.6	87	-1.5
24	Aug_12_2022	408.58	406.72	415.49	418.28	419.17	423.07	427.1(1.69%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	141	70	143	136	61.51	62%	-0.06	78.3	1.57%	2	1.7	78	-2.2
25	Aug_11_2022	408.82	404.6	413.87	415.56	416.69	420.34	419.99(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	204	70	216	168	59.13	58%		69.3	1.55%	0.5	1.3	76	-1.8
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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