Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Jun. 21, 2022

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 10, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $374.9600 (2.49%) ($371.8100 - $376.5250) on Tue. Jun. 21, 2022.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.74% (three month average)
RSI   30
Latest Price   $374.9600(2.49%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -5.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(97%)    IWF(97%)    IVE(94%)    IWD(94%)    QQQ(94%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.87% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-30%)    UUP(-23%)    TBT(-13%)    VXX(-6%)    UNG(10%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.87% (StdDev 1.74%)
Hourly BBV 1.5 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

Resistance Level   $395.5
5 Day Moving Average   $372.14(0.76%)
10 Day Moving Average   $384.4(-2.46%)
20 Day Moving Average   $395.5(-5.19%)
To recent high   -18.8%
To recent low   2.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 4.48% (three month std-dev: 1.74%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 28 Average positive next day return: 2.52%(61%) Average negative next day return: -0.81%(39%) Sample size 28 Average positive next three day return: 4.39%(79%) Average negative next three day return: -6.65%(21%) Sample size 28 Average positive next weekly return: 4.32%(79%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.33%(21%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20220721

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_21_2022	424.91	395.5	384.4	372.14	371.44	369.75	374.96(2.49%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	23	-40	78	-144	75.77	38%	-0.22	-37.5	1.74%	1.5	-1.2	30	-2.3
2	Jun_17_2022	425.84	396.39	387.95	372.13	371.69	366.9	365.86(-0.26%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-259	-90	-250	-284	106.75	36%	-0.16	-43.6	1.7%	-0.6	-1.8	22	0.3
3	Jun_16_2022	426.51	397.79	392.49	376.92	374.64	373.12	366.82(-3.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-232	-50	-226	-249	133.56	38%	-0.16	-40.7	1.71%	-1.5	-2	32	0.4
4	Jun_15_2022	427.18	399.28	397.63	383.84	380.75	376.47	379.2(1.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-142	-100	-133	-168	124.38	42%	-0.13	-32.3	1.69%	1.8	-1.5	43	0.3
5	Jun_14_2022	427.75	400.8	400.79	390.24	387.71	376.16	373.87(-0.27%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-402	-230	-451	-254	103.53	42%	-0.16	-17.6	1.71%	-1.1	-2.1	42	0.4

6	Jun_13_2022	428.42	402.27	404.92	398.62	397.22	385.03	374.89(-3.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-506	-230	-589	-258	165.43	42%	-0.15	1.4	1.71%	-1.3	-2.5	41	0.5
7	Jun_10_2022	429.07	403.78	409.23	406	405.83	399.27	389.8(-2.9%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-343	-110	-414	-131	131.82	45%	-0.13	19.7	1.65%	-1.3	-1.5	54	1.2
8	Jun_9_2022	429.65	404.04	411.07	410.15	411.05	409.42	401.44(-2.38%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1	-91	-20	-128	20	85.88	50%	-0.12	22.3	1.61%	-2.8	-0.3	62	1
9	Jun_8_2022	430.16	403.68	410.91	413.34	412.46	412.38	411.22(-1.09%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	12	-10	-13	88	64.2	52%	-0.11	13.8	1.62%	-0.9	0.8	66	0.9
10	Jun_7_2022	430.62	403.05	409.35	413.01	412.7	412.68	415.74(0.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	27	-0	8	85	58.97	49%	-0.04	4.8	1.62%	1.8	1.4	53	1.2

11	Jun_6_2022	430.78	402.11	407.51	412.45	412.61	412.53	411.79(0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	13	-0	-7	74	57.3	49%	-0.13	-5	1.65%	-0.7	1.1	57	1.1
12	Jun_3_2022	431.32	401.98	405.42	413.14	412.55	412.73	410.54(-1.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	22	-0	5	74	71.67	49%	-0.13	-3.2	1.66%	-0.3	1	55	1.4
13	Jun_2_2022	431.88	402.03	403.38	412.1	412.54	412.68	417.39(1.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	80	10	74	97	78.72	51%	-0.13	-13.5	1.64%	1.4	1.7	64	1.3
14	Jun_1_2022	432.43	402.39	400.8	408.09	409.68	412.38	409.59(-0.81%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	83	60	83	81	86.09	48%	-0.14	-17.8	1.64%	-0.3	0.7	61	1.5
15	May_31_2022	433.05	402.61	400.48	404.97	405.61	412.39	412.93(-0.56%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	238	120	268	147	95.35	48%	-0.2	-25.6	1.66%	0.9	1	58	1.4

16	May_27_2022	433.93	402.57	399.04	401.79	400.34	406.97	415.26(2.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	295	110	340	161	83.92	48%	-0.12	-40.1	1.65%	1.4	1.2	59	1.8
17	May_26_2022	434.46	402.29	397.46	396.67	396.07	398.82	405.31(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	188	40	223	81	81.81	46%	-0.15	-54.5	1.63%	1.4	0.3	45	1.8
18	May_25_2022	435.11	403.26	396.12	393.48	392.99	393.71	397.37(0.86%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.3	23	10	40	-27	89.08	46%	-0.19	-64.6	1.62%	1.5	-0.5	38	1.7
19	May_24_2022	435.93	404.22	395.68	392.47	391.63	393.32	393.97(-0.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-20	20	-1	-78	91.16	47%	-0.19	-76.7	1.64%	0.6	-0.9	29	2.1
20	May_23_2022	436.78	405.33	396.18	395.33	392.98	392.27	397.05(1.9%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-7	-30	15	-73	74.91	46%	-0.18	-77.2	1.65%	1.3	-0.7	40	2.2

21	May_20_2022	437.58	406.84	396.26	395.93	395.97	389.93	389.63(0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-166	-110	-169	-158	130.86	44%	-0.2	-77.6	1.64%	-1	-1.3	37	2
22	May_19_2022	438.46	408.66	398.37	398.35	398.57	393.68	389.38(-0.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-273	-80	-297	-199	97.66	44%	-0.2	-73.1	1.65%	-1	-1.4	39	1.7
23	May_18_2022	439.36	411.06	400.77	398.94	400.94	402.01	392.31(-3.91%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-33	30	-13	-94	117.11	44%	-0.2	-69.6	1.66%	-2.1	-1.3	34	2
24	May_17_2022	440.22	413.63	404.28	399.03	399.23	403.45	408.26(2.04%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	119	80	165	-19	82.81	46%	-0.16	-65.4	1.59%	1.9	-0.3	46	1.8
25	May_16_2022	440.92	415.34	404.93	397.2	396.78	399.87	400.09(-0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	105	50	151	-35	78.31	44%		-65.5	1.59%	0.7	-1	42	2.4
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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