Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Mar. 30, 2022

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. Jun. 27, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $458.7000 (-0.61%) ($456.4650 - $461.1950) on Wed. Mar. 30, 2022.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.32% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $458.7000(-0.61%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 3.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(97%)    IWF(97%)    IWD(94%)    QQQ(94%)    DIA(93%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.66% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-39%)    UUP(-26%)    TBT(-10%)    VXX(-8%)    TLT(9%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.66% (StdDev 1.32%)
Hourly BBV 0.1 ()
Intraday Trend -0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $455.84(0.63%)
10 Day Moving Average   $450.6(1.8%)
20 Day Moving Average   $438.63(4.58%)
To recent high   -4%
To recent low   10.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 3.13% (three month std-dev: 1.32%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 1.38%(52%) Average negative next day return: -1.11%(48%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 2.25%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.57%(50%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 2.5%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.19%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20220430

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_30_2022	452.9	438.63	450.6	455.84	456.14	459.9	458.7(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	195	60	182	232	79.33	47%	-0.02	44.1	1.32%	0.1	1.5	74	-0.7
2	Mar_29_2022	452.99	437.47	448.33	452.84	453.32	457.05	461.53(1.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	268	60	270	262	85.98	47%	-0.02	46.1	1.32%	1.8	1.9	74	-0.9
3	Mar_28_2022	453.07	435.79	444.84	450.44	449.59	452.37	455.84(0.71%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	163	40	146	213	68.3	47%	-0.03	46.1	1.31%	1.8	1.7	77	-1.5
4	Mar_25_2022	453.2	434.71	441.09	448.13	448.22	449.59	452.64(0.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	168	20	155	206	76.87	49%	-0.03	45.4	1.3%	1.2	1.7	72	-0.9
5	Mar_24_2022	453.34	433.83	437.89	446.47	446.39	446.8	450.48(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	69	10	44	143	64.1	49%	-0.03	44.6	1.31%	1.2	1.7	59	-0.7

6	Mar_23_2022	453.49	432.65	435.33	444.59	444.68	446.85	443.71(-1.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	101	30	87	141	79.06	47%	-0.04	32.9	1.31%	-0.5	1.2	54	-0.8
7	Mar_22_2022	453.68	431.56	433.66	442.95	442.56	445.98	449.54(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	231	50	245	187	73.8	48%	-0.02	18.2	1.3%	1.5	1.9	55	-1
8	Mar_21_2022	453.79	430.46	430.3	438.28	438.43	442.51	444.3(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.7	244	70	272	158	87.96	50%	-0.03	-0.5	1.3%	0.7	1.6	58	-1.2
9	Mar_18_2022	453.94	429.86	427.74	432.82	433.13	439.13	444.31(0.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	272	100	320	128	104.87	49%	-0.03	-23.4	1.32%	1.7	1.8	53	0.2
10	Mar_17_2022	454.09	429.38	426.27	427.97	427.77	434.36	441.07(1.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	297	110	359	109	101.98	48%	-0.03	-50.6	1.32%	1.4	1.6	50	-0.9

11	Mar_16_2022	454.22	429.5	425.46	424.83	424.5	427.14	435.55(2.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	223	40	276	64	143.71	48%	-0.05	-64.7	1.32%	1.3	0.8	54	-0.6
12	Mar_15_2022	454.43	429.9	425.45	423.19	422.54	421.18	426.17(2.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-44	-30	-39	-59	105.63	47%	-0.07	-68	1.29%	1.1	-0.4	54	-2.8
13	Mar_14_2022	454.73	430.51	425.81	421.22	423.4	421.86	417(-0.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-84	-10	-82	-89	95.14	45%	-0.08	-77.8	1.27%	-1.8	-1.5	44	-1.8
14	Mar_11_2022	455.1	431.71	427.78	421.71	423.41	423.91	420.07(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-63	20	-59	-76	95.29	44%	-0.08	-85.5	1.27%	-1.4	-1.4	42	0.6
15	Mar_10_2022	455.45	433.16	429.53	424.11	423.79	424.94	425.38(-0.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	14	20	27	-27	93.45	45%	-0.06	-74	1.27%	0.5	-0.9	43	0.9

16	Mar_9_2022	455.73	434.69	429.89	426.19	425.69	422.92	427.33(2.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-66	-50	-65	-70	116.2	45%	-0.05	-59.6	1.28%	1.4	-0.7	38	-0.8
17	Mar_8_2022	455.97	435.83	429.48	428.3	428.59	422.65	416.32(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-306	-90	-343	-194	163.61	42%	-0.07	-53.4	1.23%	-1	-1.9	31	-1.2
18	Mar_7_2022	456.29	437.44	430.97	431.08	432.53	428.46	419.43(-2.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-269	-60	-301	-171	135.7	44%	-0.06	-51.9	1.23%	-1.8	-1.9	39	-1.6
19	Mar_4_2022	456.56	438.94	432.56	434.53	434.21	434.54	432.1(-0.84%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-102	0	-109	-80	112.53	48%	-0.02	-42.9	1.21%	-1.3	-0.8	44	-1.2
20	Mar_3_2022	456.67	439.68	433.02	435.62	435.01	436.59	435.77(-0.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	113	20	146	15	103.95	48%	0	-31.8	1.21%	0.1	-0.4	40	-0.8

21	Mar_2_2022	456.66	440.69	433.93	434.12	433.86	433.89	437.89(1.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	93	-0	128	-13	117.36	50%	0.01	-23	1.21%	1.5	-0.3	37	-1
22	Mar_1_2022	456.62	441.4	434.57	430.96	429.94	433.43	430.21(-1.48%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-10	50	15	-84	136.71	47%	-0.01	-23.2	1.21%	-1.6	-1.2	37	-1.8
23	Feb_28_2022	456.66	442.4	435.46	430.83	428.67	433.84	436.67(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	254	70	328	31	144.72	48%	-0	-19.6	1.22%	0.5	-0.6	43	-1
24	Feb_25_2022	456.67	442.7	435.77	430.36	427.74	426.45	437.55(2.16%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.8	62	-40	105	-69	121.46	46%	-0	-19.4	1.24%	1.3	-0.6	43	-0.7
25	Feb_24_2022	456.69	442.48	436.8	430.27	428.33	423.5	428.3(1.48%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-346	-90	-373	-264	209.59	44%		-26.6	1.21%	0	-1.5	38	-1.1
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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