Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 9, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $466.3500 (-0.68%) ($466.1400 - $469.6290) on Thu. Dec. 9, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.87% (three month average)
RSI   46
Latest Price   $466.3500(-0.68%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(97%)    IWF(97%)    DIA(94%)    IWD(94%)    QQQ(94%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.435% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-48%)    UUP(-27%)    VXX(-12%)    TBT(-6%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.435% (StdDev 0.87%)
Hourly BBV -2.3 ()
Intraday Trend -0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $463.24(0.67%)
10 Day Moving Average   $460.48(1.27%)
20 Day Moving Average   $463.9(0.53%)
To recent high   -0.7%
To recent low   8.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   0.4
One Month Target Price   > $466.35
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $446.06

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is -0.7% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -0.1% away from the target price of 466.35.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.27% (three month std-dev: 0.87%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.14%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0.42%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.14%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20220109

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_9_2021	449.66	463.9		463.24	464.66	468.16	466.35(-0.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	151	60	186	44	59.58	55%	0.07	-15	0.87%	-2.3	0.4	46	0.3
2	Dec_8_2021	449.34	463.75	460.48	461.36	461.64	466.91	469.52(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	391	80	474	142	72.08	55%	0.09	-25.4	0.87%	0.9	1	50	0.6
3	Dec_7_2021	448.94	463.59	460.16	457.56	458.02	461.16	468.28(2.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	286	50	360	63	94.12	55%	0.1	-40	0.87%	1.2	0.8	48	-0.1
4	Dec_6_2021	448.5	463.57	459.92	455.01	455.95	456.36	458.65(1.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	29	10	66	-82	98.05	52%	0.06	-45.6	0.83%	1	-0.8	41	-1.4
5	Dec_3_2021	448.22	464.07	460.88	456.2	456.44	454.87	453.42(-0.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-133	-20	-127	-150	136.6	50%	0.04	-33.1	0.82%	-1.4	-1.8	36	-2.2

6	Dec_2_2021	448.03	464.8	462.52	457.31	458.63	455.53	456.94(1.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-209	-40	-221	-172	126.96	50%	0.05	-24.1	0.82%	-0.1	-1.5	44	-1.7
7	Dec_1_2021	447.82	465.24	463.66	459.49	460.24	458	450.5(-1.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-312	-30	-349	-201	130.92	47%	0.03	-3.8	0.8%	-1.9	-3	36	-2.6
8	Nov_30_2021	447.67	465.91	465.65	463.03	462.81	461.74	455.56(-1.95%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-125	-20	-138	-84	147	49%	0.04	29.9	0.78%	-1.5	-2.9	36	-2
9	Nov_29_2021	447.48	466.23	466.95	465.43	464.81	462.47	464.6(1.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-135	-40	-156	-72	83.97	53%	0.07	64.6	0.74%	0.3	-0.5	43	-0.3
10	Nov_26_2021	447.18	466	467.24	466.29	466.2	463.88	458.97(-1.9%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-279	-40	-327	-134	112.67	51%	0.09	74	0.73%	0	-2.1	34	-3.8

11	Nov_24_2021	446.77	466.05	467.86	468.44	468.4	467.14	467.84(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-98	-20	-119	-34	35.85	56%	0.08	79.1	0.69%	0	0.4	53	0.8
12	Nov_23_2021	446.42	465.41	467.48	468.5	468.84	468.53	468.19(0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-79	-0	-96	-26	72.39	57%	0.05	75.8	0.69%	-0.7	0.6	59	0.9
13	Nov_22_2021	446.2	464.83	467.39	468.72	469.15	469.66	467.57(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	50	10	51	45	72.4	57%	0.08	78.3	0.69%	0.4	0.6	64	0.7
14	Nov_19_2021	445.85	464.26	467.5	468.69	468.81	469.16	468.89(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	59	10	58	62	56.73	59%	0.09	78.6	0.7%	0.2	0.9	70	1.1
15	Nov_18_2021	445.46	463.5	467.44	468.37	468.39	468.64	469.73(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	54	0	48	71	50.37	56%	0.09	80.3	0.7%	1	1.1	74	1.7

16	Nov_17_2021	445.04	462.7	467.14	467.18	467.71	468.47	468.14(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	74	10	71	82	46.63	55%	0.09	81.7	0.71%	0	0.9	73	2.1
17	Nov_16_2021	444.62	461.93	466.81	466.27	466.72	468.14	469.28(0.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	123	20	126	114	48.59	55%	0.09	87.9	0.72%	1.3	1.2	81	2.1
18	Nov_15_2021	444.2	461.02	466.09	465.89	465.76	466.94	467.43(0.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	111	20	110	115	46.26	55%	0.09	93.6	0.72%	0.7	1	73	2.2
19	Nov_12_2021	443.78	460.03	465.39	466.19	465.82	465.29	467.27(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	34	-10	15	89	52.36	55%	0.1	98	0.72%	1.8	1	73	1.1
20	Nov_11_2021	443.35	458.99	464.62	466.45	466.61	464.58	463.77(0.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-124	-30	-175	29	34.61	53%	0.09	97.6	0.71%	-0.9	0.6	73	0.5

21	Nov_10_2021	442.93	457.98	464.15	467.07	467.71	466.35	463.62(-0.8%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-122	-20	-178	45	69.15	53%	0.09	88.5	0.71%	-2.1	0.6	72	0.5
22	Nov_9_2021	442.52	456.64	463.28	467.29	468.06	468.65	467.38(-0.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	58	10	31	138	50.85	55%	0.11	80.2	0.7%	-1.3	1.1	83	0.9
23	Nov_8_2021	442.04	455.01	462.16	466.2	466.8	469.06	468.93(0.09%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	211	40	211	210	49.98	55%	0.12	74.6	0.7%	0.5	1.3	89	1
24	Nov_5_2021	441.49	453.32	460.8	464.42	464.76	467.47	468.53(0.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	301	40	318	251	65.66	55%	0.11	74	0.7%	0.8	1.5	90	1
25	Nov_4_2021	441.01	451.77	459.23	462.56	462.5	464.54	466.91(0.47%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	267	30	279	232	51.74	55%		73.6	0.7%	1.2	1.5	90	1.3
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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