Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 18, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Apr. 26, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $391.4800 (-1.45%) ($390.7500 - $396.7200) on Thu. Mar. 18, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.96% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $391.4800(-1.45%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY declines -0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(96%)    IWF(96%)    DIA(93%)    QQQ(93%)    IVE(92%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.48% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-51%)    UUP(-28%)    VXX(-16%)    IGOV(-5%)    TBT(-3%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.48% (StdDev 0.96%)
Hourly BBV -2.3 ()
Intraday Trend -0.8%

Inflection Point   Yes
5 Day Moving Average   $395.02(-0.9%)
10 Day Moving Average   $391.34(0.04%)
20 Day Moving Average   $388.39(0.8%)
To recent high   -1.5%
To recent low   6.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.43% (three month std-dev: 0.96%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 0.89%(40%) Average negative next day return: -2.05%(60%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 1%(20%) Average negative next three day return: -1.93%(80%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 0.93%(40%) Average negative next weekly return: -6.91%(60%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20210418

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_18_2021	373.47	388.39	391.34	395.02	395.13	394.59	391.48(-1.45%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-42	-10	-79	68	113.91	55%	0.18	20.3	0.96%	-2.3	0.6	61	1.2
2	Mar_17_2021	372.79	388.32	390	395.43	395.01	396.14	397.26(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	70	20	53	121	95.61	58%	0.16	22.9	0.94%	1.3	1.6	64	2.1
3	Mar_16_2021	372.18	388	388.4	393.9	394.38	395.68	395.91(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	151	30	157	134	73.32	58%	0.16	17.5	0.95%	0.9	1.5	52	1.9
4	Mar_15_2021	371.59	387.76	387.38	392.15	392.69	393.89	396.41(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	123	30	128	107	73.2	60%	0.14	10.5	0.94%	1.4	1.7	56	2.4
5	Mar_12_2021	371.06	387.5	386.56	389.21	390.51	393.09	394.06(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	150	60	167	100	64.43	60%	0.14	-0.8	0.95%	0.7	1.3	55	1.8

6	Mar_11_2021	370.55	387.28	385.16	387.11	388.26	391.49	393.53(1.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	259	70	305	122	85.38	60%	0.14	-9	0.96%	1.2	1.3	51	1.5
7	Mar_10_2021	370.02	387.05	383.97	383.75	385.02	387.93	389.58(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	202	60	250	56	109.4	58%	0.13	-22	0.95%	1	0.6	48	1.2
8	Mar_9_2021	369.54	387.06	384.05	382.12	382.21	385.03	387.17(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	132	50	173	9	113.09	58%	0.13	-22.7	0.95%	0.9	0	44	1.2
9	Mar_8_2021	369.07	387.21	384.01	381.99	381.63	382.11	381.72(-0.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	69	10	102	-29	121.05	56%	0.1	-10	0.94%	0.6	-1.2	40	0.4
10	Mar_5_2021	368.71	387.54	384.55	383.56	382.69	379.4	383.56(1.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-137	-70	-142	-123	151.67	56%	0.1	17.4	0.93%	0.9	-0.9	40	0.6

11	Mar_4_2021	368.33	387.7	385.16	382.92	384.28	381.15	376.72(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-276	-50	-302	-197	181.84	52%	0.08	22.1	0.91%	-1.8	-2.5	36	-0.4
12	Mar_3_2021	368.03	388.06	386.62	384.05	385.2	385.98	381.42(-1.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-112	20	-112	-111	116.93	55%	0.09	42.9	0.9%	-2	-1.7	40	0.3
13	Mar_2_2021	367.71	388.12	387.73	386.14	385.83	387.4	386.54(-0.78%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	125	30	160	19	78.7	59%	0.1	55.6	0.89%	0.3	-0.4	45	1
14	Mar_1_2021	367.35	387.68	388.28	386.33	386.03	384.42	389.58(2.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	9	-30	23	-32	104.44	59%	0.12	40.3	0.88%	1.4	0.4	48	1
15	Feb_26_2021	366.91	386.78	388.54	385.83	385.69	384.27	380.36(-0.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-239	-30	-268	-150	151.79	53%	0.1	19.5	0.82%	-0.9	-1.1	40	0.5

16	Feb_25_2021	366.53	386.73	389.66	387.77	387.06	387.64	382.37(-2.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-22	0	-21	-24	145.32	53%	0.12	23.3	0.83%	-1.6	-0.7	47	0.2
17	Feb_24_2021	366.09	386.42	390.52	389.46	388.22	387.12	391.84(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	30	-30	30	29	71.92	66%	0.16	22.1	0.76%	1.6	0.8	75	1.4
18	Feb_23_2021	365.5	386	390.35	389.58	388.48	386.49	387.52(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-199	-40	-244	-63	106.6	63%	0.14	27.2	0.78%	0.1	0.2	71	1.3
19	Feb_22_2021	365	385.84	390.69	390.56	389.94	389.32	387.08(-0.76%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.5	-95	-20	-133	19	66.84	63%	0.15	37.5	0.78%	-1.3	0.2	78	1.1
20	Feb_19_2021	364.45	385.63	390.82	391.69	391.3	390.46	390.05(-0.2%)	UT	HoldLong	50	-0.3	21	-20	-10	115	82.29	63%	0.15	46.2	0.78%	-0.3	0.7	90	1.5

21	Feb_18_2021	363.9	385.32	390.48	391.82	391.37	390.56	390.82(-0.42%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-55	-20	-105	97	59.41	63%	0.16	50.9	0.78%	-0	0.9	69	1.3
22	Feb_17_2021	363.31	384.94	389.67	391.67	391.51	392.13	392.45(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	43	10	6	155	52.29	63%	0.17	55.8	0.79%	0.4	1.2	75	1.4
23	Feb_16_2021	362.69	384.24	388.59	391.24	391.33	392.18	392.38(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	132	20	112	190	50.46	63%	0.26	55.6	0.8%	0.9	1.3	58	1.2
24	Feb_12_2021	361.74	383.4	387.05	390.87	390.56	390.89	392.73(0.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	71	0	46	145	49.63	66%	0.2	50.9	0.82%	1.8	1.5	57	1.5
25	Feb_11_2021	361.02	382.66	384.87	389.87	390.15	390.48	390.71(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	62	10	45	113	42.43	66%		48.3	0.83%	0	1.4	57	1.3
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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