Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Mar. 12, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Apr. 26, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $394.0600 (0.13%) ($391.2000 - $394.2100) on Fri. Mar. 12, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.95% (three month average)
RSI   55
Latest Price   $394.0600(0.13%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Rotation from growth to value for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(96%)    IWF(96%)    DIA(93%)    QQQ(93%)    IVE(92%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.475% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-52%)    UUP(-28%)    VXX(-16%)    TBT(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.475% (StdDev 0.95%)
Hourly BBV 0.7 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $389.21(1.25%)
10 Day Moving Average   $386.56(1.94%)
20 Day Moving Average   $387.5(1.69%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   8.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.3
One Month Target Price   > $399.58
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $380.6

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's 1.4% away from the target price of 399.58.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.26% (three month std-dev: 0.95%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0.3%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -0.05%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.11%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20210412

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_12_2021	371.06	387.5	386.56	389.21	390.51	393.09	394.06(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	150	60	167	100	64.43	60%	0.14	-0.8	0.95%	0.7	1.3	55	1.8
2	Mar_11_2021	370.55	387.28	385.16	387.11	388.26	391.49	393.53(1.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	259	70	305	122	85.38	60%	0.14	-9	0.96%	1.2	1.3	51	1.5
3	Mar_10_2021	370.02	387.05	383.97	383.75	385.02	387.93	389.58(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	202	60	250	56	109.4	58%	0.13	-22	0.95%	1	0.6	48	1.2
4	Mar_9_2021	369.54	387.06	384.05	382.12	382.21	385.03	387.17(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	132	50	173	9	113.09	58%	0.13	-22.7	0.95%	0.9	0	44	1.2
5	Mar_8_2021	369.07	387.21	384.01	381.99	381.63	382.11	381.72(-0.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	69	10	102	-29	121.05	56%	0.1	-10	0.94%	0.6	-1.2	40	0.4

6	Mar_5_2021	368.71	387.54	384.55	383.56	382.69	379.4	383.56(1.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-137	-70	-142	-123	151.67	56%	0.1	17.4	0.93%	0.9	-0.9	40	0.6
7	Mar_4_2021	368.33	387.7	385.16	382.92	384.28	381.15	376.72(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-276	-50	-302	-197	181.84	52%	0.08	22.1	0.91%	-1.8	-2.5	36	-0.4
8	Mar_3_2021	368.03	388.06	386.62	384.05	385.2	385.98	381.42(-1.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-112	20	-112	-111	116.93	55%	0.09	42.9	0.9%	-2	-1.7	40	0.3
9	Mar_2_2021	367.71	388.12	387.73	386.14	385.83	387.4	386.54(-0.78%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	125	30	160	19	78.7	59%	0.1	55.6	0.89%	0.3	-0.4	45	1
10	Mar_1_2021	367.35	387.68	388.28	386.33	386.03	384.42	389.58(2.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	9	-30	23	-32	104.44	59%	0.12	40.3	0.88%	1.4	0.4	48	1

11	Feb_26_2021	366.91	386.78	388.54	385.83	385.69	384.27	380.36(-0.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-239	-30	-268	-150	151.79	53%	0.1	19.5	0.82%	-0.9	-1.1	40	0.5
12	Feb_25_2021	366.53	386.73	389.66	387.77	387.06	387.64	382.37(-2.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-22	0	-21	-24	145.32	53%	0.12	23.3	0.83%	-1.6	-0.7	47	0.2
13	Feb_24_2021	366.09	386.42	390.52	389.46	388.22	387.12	391.84(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	30	-30	30	29	71.92	66%	0.16	22.1	0.76%	1.6	0.8	75	1.4
14	Feb_23_2021	365.5	386	390.35	389.58	388.48	386.49	387.52(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-199	-40	-244	-63	106.6	63%	0.14	27.2	0.78%	0.1	0.2	71	1.3
15	Feb_22_2021	365	385.84	390.69	390.56	389.94	389.32	387.08(-0.76%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.5	-95	-20	-133	19	66.84	63%	0.15	37.5	0.78%	-1.3	0.2	78	1.1

16	Feb_19_2021	364.45	385.63	390.82	391.69	391.3	390.46	390.05(-0.2%)	UT	HoldLong	50	-0.3	21	-20	-10	115	82.29	63%	0.15	46.2	0.78%	-0.3	0.7	90	1.5
17	Feb_18_2021	363.9	385.32	390.48	391.82	391.37	390.56	390.82(-0.42%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-55	-20	-105	97	59.41	63%	0.16	50.9	0.78%	-0	0.9	69	1.3
18	Feb_17_2021	363.31	384.94	389.67	391.67	391.51	392.13	392.45(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	43	10	6	155	52.29	63%	0.17	55.8	0.79%	0.4	1.2	75	1.4
19	Feb_16_2021	362.69	384.24	388.59	391.24	391.33	392.18	392.38(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	132	20	112	190	50.46	63%	0.26	55.6	0.8%	0.9	1.3	58	1.2
20	Feb_12_2021	361.74	383.4	387.05	390.87	390.56	390.89	392.73(0.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	71	0	46	145	49.63	66%	0.2	50.9	0.82%	1.8	1.5	57	1.5

21	Feb_11_2021	361.02	382.66	384.87	389.87	390.15	390.48	390.71(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	62	10	45	113	42.43	66%	0.19	48.3	0.83%	0	1.4	57	1.3
22	Feb_10_2021	360.32	382.08	383.56	388.95	389.47	390.24	390.08(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	95	20	89	112	58.61	66%	0.17	52.4	0.83%	0.5	1.5	55	1
23	Feb_9_2021	359.71	381.48	381.99	387.3	387.98	389.83	390.31(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	139	40	150	104	35.28	66%	0.18	53.3	0.83%	1.3	1.7	55	1.1
24	Feb_8_2021	359.05	380.86	381.21	385.49	386.02	388.71	390.52(0.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	220	50	249	133	37.75	66%	0.17	57.6	0.84%	1.2	2	61	1.1
25	Feb_5_2021	358.44	380.34	380.45	382.63	383.83	386.14	387.71(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	267	50	308	142	48.42	70%		54.5	0.84%	1.1	1.8	62	1.1
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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