Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 1, 2008

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. May. 22, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $141.1200 (2.07%) ($138.2700 - $141.1200) on Thu. May. 1, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.34% (three month average)
RSI   80
Latest Price   $141.1200(2.07%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(92%)    XLK(90%)    IWM(89%)    XLY(87%)    EWG(84%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.67% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-35%)    SHY(-20%)    TIP(-10%)    GLD(4%)    LQD(21%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.67% (StdDev 1.34%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2%

5 Day Moving Average   $139.54(1.13%)
10 Day Moving Average   $138.91(1.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $137.33(2.76%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   10.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.8
One Month Target Price   > $145.49
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $135.74

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   37.8000 k (Sat. Apr. 25, 2020) Increase
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's 3.1% away from the target price of 145.49.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.5% (three month std-dev: 1.34%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20080601

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_1_2008	137.14	137.33	138.91	139.54			141.12(2.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	24	-10000	6	79	187.28	58%	-0.06	59.3	1.34%	0	1.8	80	0
2	Apr_30_2008	137.22	137.1	138.49	138.98			138.26(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	19	-10000	1	73	208.4	58%	-0.07	68.4	1.33%	0	0.6	59	0
3	Apr_29_2008	137.32	137.02	138.37	138.87			139.08(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	21	-10000	3	76	125.51	58%	-0.1	76.3	1.34%	0	1.1	62	0
4	Apr_28_2008	137.46	136.88	137.83	138.64			139.63(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	17	-10000	2	62	105.62	60%	-0.09	70.2	1.34%	0	1.3	59	0
5	Apr_25_2008	137.58	136.51	137.18	138.43			139.6(0.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	14	-10000	3	47	190.79	57%	-0.08	57.7	1.35%	0	1.4	58	0

6	Apr_24_2008	137.69	136.11	136.56	138.2			138.32(0.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	11	-10000	3	34	229.38	57%	-0.08	54.3	1.36%	0	1	55	0
7	Apr_23_2008	137.8	135.84	136.32	137.95			137.72(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	8	-10000	2	26	193.31	60%	-0.07	56.8	1.36%	0	0.9	52	0
8	Apr_22_2008	137.89	135.61	136.11	137.77			137.94(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	14	-10000	10	24	162.17	60%	-0.07	55.3	1.39%	0	1.1	54	0
9	Apr_21_2008	137.99	135.45	135.97	136.83			138.55(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	11	-10000	12	9	118.59	60%	-0.08	59.7	1.4%	0	1.5	57	0
10	Apr_18_2008	138.1	135.24	135.77	135.71			138.48(1.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	9	-10000	11	3	218.53	60%	-0.07	58.4	1.41%	0	1.6	72	0

11	Apr_17_2008	138.19	134.92	135.57	134.69			137.05(0.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	1	-10000	2	-4	179.71	56%	-0.08	46.6	1.41%	0	1.1	71	0
12	Apr_16_2008	138.3	134.6	135.53	134.48			136.85(2.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	3	-10000	2	5	189.27	56%	-0.04	38.4	1.45%	0	1.1	64	0
13	Apr_15_2008	138.35	134.43	135.49	134.28			133.24(0.23%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-4	-10000	-8	7	172.39	50%	-0.07	39.4	1.41%	0	-0.6	53	0
14	Apr_14_2008	138.44	134.22	135.85	135			132.93(-0.34%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	0	-10000	-8	25	160.52	50%	-0.08	42.6	1.44%	0	-0.5	45	0
15	Apr_11_2008	138.55	134.08	135.83	135.8			133.38(-1.94%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	3	-10000	-7	32	222.97	50%	-0.04	48.7	1.44%	0	-0.3	47	0

16	Apr_10_2008	138.61	134.01	135.71	136.5			136.02(0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	10	-10000	-2	47	192.97	53%	-0.04	57	1.42%	0	0.8	66	0
17	Apr_9_2008	138.67	133.78	135.41	136.71			135.83(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	13	-10000	-2	58	195.61	53%	-0.06	55.2	1.43%	0	0.8	70	0
18	Apr_8_2008	138.76	133.61	135.16	136.88			136.82(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	16	-10000	0	62	148.94	51%	-0.05	58.1	1.43%	0	1.2	58	0
19	Apr_7_2008	138.83	133.18	134.95	136.84			136.96(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	29	-10000	10	84	154.38	51%	-0.06	46.4	1.45%	0	1.4	70	0
20	Apr_4_2008	138.92	132.81	134.7	135.84			136.89(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	29	-10000	11	83	204.47	48%	-0.07	30.7	1.45%	0	1.5	65	0

21	Apr_3_2008	139.02	132.5	134.21	134.77			137.04(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	23	-10000	9	66	175.88	48%	-0.08	10.9	1.48%	0	1.8	60	0
22	Apr_2_2008	139.13	132.31	133.55	133.91			136.7(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	18	-10000	7	49	210.91	48%	-0.09	-6.7	1.48%	0	1.9	60	0
23	Apr_1_2008	139.25	132.09	133.2	133.21			136.61(3.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	13	-10000	4	39	254.55	48%	-0.05	-27.8	1.48%	0	2.1	56	0
24	Mar_31_2008	139.32	131.9	132.37	132.86			131.97(0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	4	-10000	-6	33	166.69	43%	-0.1	-45.8	1.42%	0	0	59	0
25	Mar_28_2008	139.46	131.98	132.17	133.41			131.51(-0.96%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	11	-10000	-1	45	180.92	43%		-41.5	1.42%	0	-0.2	54	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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