Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Apr. 25, 2007

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. May. 23, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $149.4800 (0.92%) ($148.0200 - $149.6600) on Wed. Apr. 25, 2007.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.81% (three month average)
RSI   85
Latest Price   $149.4800(0.92%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(92%)    IWM(90%)    XLK(89%)    XLY(87%)    EEM(83%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.405% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-35%)    SHY(-23%)    TIP(-13%)    GLD(4%)    LQD(19%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.405% (StdDev 0.81%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $148.3(0.8%)
10 Day Moving Average   $147.34(1.45%)
20 Day Moving Average   $145.41(2.8%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   8.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.7
One Month Target Price   > $149.48
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $143.43

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   37.8000 k (Sat. Apr. 25, 2020) Increase
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -0.7% away from the target price of 149.48.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.61% (three month std-dev: 0.81%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20070525

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_25_2007	142.97	145.41	147.34	148.3			149.48(0.92%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	32	-10000	7	107	109.17	58%	0.06	57.8	0.81%	0	1.7	85	0
2	Apr_24_2007	142.89	145.07	146.8	147.86			148.12(0.04%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	27	-10000	3	97	114.52	57%	0.06	60.9	0.81%	0	1.4	83	0
3	Apr_23_2007	142.81	144.82	146.45	147.65			148.06(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	29	-10000	4	104	77.59	57%	0.06	68.1	0.82%	0	1.6	86	0
4	Apr_20_2007	142.73	144.57	146.08	147.38			148.62(0.94%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	37	-10000	11	114	124.12	57%	0.06	80.9	0.81%	0	2.1	92	0
5	Apr_19_2007	142.65	144.28	145.63	146.72			147.23(-0.03%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	34	-10000	9	107	103.37	56%	0.05	92.4	0.81%	0	1.7	90	0

6	Apr_18_2007	142.58	144.07	145.29	146.21			147.27(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	35	-10000	11	105	88.35	56%	0.06	103.6	0.81%	0	2	91	0
7	Apr_17_2007	142.49	143.75	144.92	145.56			147.09(0.27%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	29	-10000	8	91	108.45	56%	0.06	104.7	0.81%	0	2.2	76	0
8	Apr_16_2007	142.4	143.41	144.43	145.06			146.7(0.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	25	-10000	8	74	83.21	56%	0.05	96.2	0.81%	0	2.2	71	0
9	Apr_13_2007	142.33	143	143.96	144.61			145.32(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	17	-10000	4	55	85.18	54%	0.02	74.6	0.8%	0	1.4	63	0
10	Apr_12_2007	142.3	142.71	143.62	144.39			144.66(0.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	13	-10000	3	43	116.46	55%	0.03	66.1	0.81%	0	1.2	61	0

11	Apr_11_2007	142.26	142.45	143.34	144.23			144.02(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	9	-10000	1	32	106.56	55%	0.03	60.5	0.81%	0	0.9	56	0
12	Apr_10_2007	142.22	142.17	143.22	144.17			144.61(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	17	-10000	8	42	56.64	55%	0.03	51.5	0.81%	0	1.3	76	0
13	Apr_9_2007	142.18	141.98	143.06	143.68			144.44(0.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	17	-10000	8	42	51.15	55%	0.04	55.7	0.81%	0	1.3	78	0
14	Apr_5_2007	142.12	141.79	142.94	143.19			144.24(0.27%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	19	-10000	8	52	46.87	54%	0.04	57.7	0.81%	0	1.4	82	0
15	Apr_4_2007	142.07	141.61	142.81	142.73			143.85(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	20	-10000	7	57	64.02	54%	0.03	52.1	0.81%	0	1.3	73	0

16	Apr_3_2007	142.03	141.39	142.74	142.33			143.69(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	18	-10000	3	63	82.52	54%	0.04	44.4	0.82%	0	1.4	73	0
17	Apr_2_2007	141.97	141.19	142.47	142.16			142.16(0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	15	-10000	-4	72	79.45	52%	0.03	40	0.8%	0	0.6	73	0
18	Mar_30_2007	141.93	140.96	142.3	142.37			142(0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	15	-10000	-5	75	128.21	52%	0.03	22.7	0.81%	0	0.6	54	0
19	Mar_29_2007	141.89	140.8	142	142.65			141.97(0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	16	-10000	-4	74	139.51	52%	0.02	11.1	0.82%	0	0.7	55	0
20	Mar_28_2007	141.86	140.72	141.77	142.89			141.82(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	15	-10000	-5	76	152.97	52%	0.02	1.6	0.82%	0	0.6	55	0

21	Mar_27_2007	141.83	140.67	141.54	143.18			142.86(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	27	-10000	6	91	100.59	53%	0.04	-7.3	0.81%	0	1.3	64	0
22	Mar_26_2007	141.78	140.49	141.09	142.81			143.2(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	26	-10000	10	75	113.89	55%	0.05	-26.6	0.82%	0	1.4	64	0
23	Mar_23_2007	141.71	140.55	140.85	142.21			143.39(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	33	-10000	17	79	74.43	55%	0.05	-33.6	0.82%	0	1.3	72	0
24	Mar_22_2007	141.64	140.6	140.55	141.23			143.18(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	25	-10000	13	60	119.01	53%	0.05	-43.4	0.83%	0	1.1	64	0
25	Mar_21_2007	141.57	140.69	140.27	140.49			143.29(1.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	21	-10000	14	41	153.44	53%		-48.3	0.83%	0	1	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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