Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 7, 2003

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. Jun. 25, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $98.0000 (1.05%) ($96.7600 - $98.0700) on Thu. Aug. 7, 2003.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.99% (three month average)
RSI   43
Latest Price   $98.0000(1.05%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY declines -0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(91%)    IWM(89%)    XLK(89%)    XLY(87%)    EEM(82%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.495% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-21%)    REMX(1%)    LQD(17%)    OIH(64%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.495% (StdDev 0.99%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $96.61(-1.42%)
Resistance Level   $98.98
5 Day Moving Average   $97.68(0.33%)
10 Day Moving Average   $98.58(-0.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $98.98(-0.99%)
To recent high   -3.6%
To recent low   6%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   37.8000 k (Sat. Apr. 25, 2020) Increase
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.09% (three month std-dev: 0.99%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20030907

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_7_2003	95.7	98.98	98.58	97.68			98(1.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-16	-10000	-6	-45	43.55	62%	0.03	-63.3	0.99%	0	-0.9	43	0
2	Aug_6_2003	95.67	99.11	98.64	97.96			96.98(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-16	-10000	-9	-38	51.18	61%	0.01	-52.3	0.99%	0	-1.9	45	0
3	Aug_5_2003	95.66	99.29	98.88	98.4			96.42(-2.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-16	-10000	-12	-28	61.75	61%	0.01	-35.8	0.99%	0	-2.7	36	0
4	Aug_4_2003	95.65	99.54	98.88	98.99			98.51(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.6	-8	-10000	-6	-14	55.55	66%	0.03	-7.1	0.95%	0	-1.2	40	0
5	Aug_1_2003	95.62	99.65	99.18	99.26			98.51(-0.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-9	-10000	-7	-16	49.33	67%	0.04	19.5	0.97%	0	-1.4	42	0

6	Jul_31_2003	95.58	99.67	99.28	99.61			99.39(0.23%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	2	-10000	4	-4	59.12	67%	0.04	30.9	0.97%	0	-0.3	45	0
7	Jul_30_2003	95.54	99.69	99.2	99.43			99.16(-0.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-6	-10000	-0	-24	28.43	67%	0.05	38.3	0.97%	0	-0.7	42	0
8	Jul_29_2003	95.49	99.67	99.27	99.44			99.4(-0.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-6	-10000	1	-27	53.57	67%	0.04	38.1	0.97%	0	-0.3	43	0
9	Jul_28_2003	95.45	99.59	99.37	99.4			99.86(-0.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-3	-10000	7	-31	34.42	69%	0.06	28.4	0.96%	0	0.3	42	0
10	Jul_25_2003	95.39	99.49	99.39	99.08			100.23(1.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-9	-10000	3	-46	43.33	66%	0.06	10.5	0.98%	0	0.7	46	0

11	Jul_24_2003	95.33	99.42	99.37	99.08			98.49(-0.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-11	-10000	0	-45	41.18	64%	0.04	1	0.98%	0	-0.9	51	0
12	Jul_23_2003	95.29	99.39	99.58	98.94			99.24(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-13	-10000	-3	-42	37.3	64%	0.05	-15.5	0.98%	0	-0.1	48	0
13	Jul_22_2003	95.24	99.36	99.71	99.08			99.17(0.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-11	-10000	-5	-28	50.01	67%	0.05	-24.1	0.98%	0	-0.2	55	0
14	Jul_21_2003	95.19	99.32	99.9	99.34			98.28(-1.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-6	-10000	-8	-1	35.14	67%	0.04	-30.7	1%	0	-0.9	56	0
15	Jul_18_2003	95.15	99.39	100.16	99.74			99.51(1.03%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	6	-10000	-3	31	35.71	69%	0.06	-22.5	0.99%	0	0.1	62	0

16	Jul_17_2003	95.09	99.41	100.1	99.88			98.5(-1.42%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.2	3	-10000	-8	35	48.93	69%	0.04	-21.4	0.99%	0	-0.8	51	0
17	Jul_16_2003	95.05	99.55	100.25	100.3			99.92(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	14	-10000	-3	65	40.22	69%	0.07	-5.8	0.98%	0	0.3	64	0
18	Jul_15_2003	94.98	99.63	100.13	100.43			100.51(0.27%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	15	-10000	-3	70	63.63	69%	0.08	6.3	1%	0	0.7	60	0
19	Jul_14_2003	94.9	99.67	99.87	100.56			100.24(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	17	-10000	-2	72	0	71%	0.07	20.1	1.01%	0	0.4	59	0
20	Jul_11_2003	94.83	99.63	99.62	100.65			100.24(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	22	-10000	6	68	40.08	71%	0.08	23.3	1.04%	0	0.5	53	0

21	Jul_10_2003	94.75	99.64	99.48	100.35			100.58(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	15	-10000	3	51	0	71%	0.1	20.1	1.04%	0	0.7	51	0
22	Jul_9_2003	94.66	99.62	99.18	100.19			100.58(-0.56%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	13	-10000	8	28	36.63	68%	0.08	20.7	1.04%	0	0.7	44	0
23	Jul_8_2003	94.58	99.55	98.96	99.78			101.15(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	11	-10000	14	1	33.16	68%	0.11	18.8	1.05%	0	1.2	45	0
24	Jul_7_2003	94.48	99.4	98.67	99.07			100.7(1.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.3	-1	-10000	12	-40	31.43	68%	0.1	7.6	1.05%	0	1	43	0
25	Jul_3_2003	94.39	99.32	98.51	98.47			98.74(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-17	-10000	-0	-68	30.87	66%		3.2	1.02%	0	-0.5	47	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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