Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Apr. 30, 2003

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. Jul. 2, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $91.9100 (0.13%) ($91.4100 - $92.5700) on Wed. Apr. 30, 2003.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.14% (three month average)
RSI   70
Latest Price   $91.9100(0.13%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY declines -0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(91%)    IWM(89%)    XLK(89%)    XLY(87%)    EEM(82%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.57% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-21%)    REMX(1%)    LQD(17%)    OIH(64%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.57% (StdDev 1.14%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $91.42(0.54%)
10 Day Moving Average   $90.86(1.16%)
20 Day Moving Average   $89.53(2.66%)
To recent high   -0.3%
To recent low   6.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.4
One Month Target Price   > $96.14
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $90.66

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   37.8000 k (Sat. Apr. 25, 2020) Increase
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is -0.3% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's 4.6% away from the target price of 96.14.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.92% (three month std-dev: 1.14%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20030530

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_30_2003	89.27	89.53	90.86	91.42			91.91(0.13%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	23	-10000	-1	96	48.92	69%	0.15	0	1.14%	0	1.4	70	0
2	Apr_29_2003	89.14	89.24	90.64	91.47			91.79(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	28	-10000	2	107	52.34	69%	0.16	0	1.17%	0	1.4	63	0
3	Apr_28_2003	89	89.24	90.36	91.38			91.79(1.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	7	-10000	8	3	46.47	69%	0.17	0	1.2%	0	54	63	0
4	Apr_25_2003	88.85	89.24	89.91	90.95			90.23(-1.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	3	-10000	3	1	43.93	65%	0.1	0	1.19%	0	55.7	59	0
5	Apr_24_2003	88.76	89.24	89.66	90.8			91.36(-0.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	10	-10000	12	5	50.02	72%	0.18	0	1.16%	0	56	65	0

6	Apr_23_2003	88.6	89.24	89.23	90.18			92.18(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	8	-10000	9	4	44.25	72%	0.27	0	1.15%	0	59.9	66	0
7	Apr_22_2003	88.36	89.24	88.8	89.7			91.34(1.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	8	-10000	9	4	59.86	72%	0.24	0	1.18%	0	71.9	71	0
8	Apr_21_2003	88.15	89.24	88.45	89.22			89.65(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	9	-10000	10	4	32.08	66%	0.12	0	1.16%	0	87.9	50	0
9	Apr_17_2003	88.04	89.24	88.29	88.72			89.48(1.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	6	-10000	7	3	37.48	66%	0.14	0	1.2%	0	92.2	50	0
10	Apr_16_2003	87.92	89.24	88.1	88.33			88.25(-1.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	4	-10000	5	2	51.81	60%	0.03	0	1.21%	0	97	50	0

11	Apr_15_2003	87.89	89.24	88.09	88.08			89.78(0.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	5	-10000	6	2	49.97	77%	0.22	0	1.1%	0	94.5	50	0
12	Apr_14_2003	87.7	89.24	87.71	87.77			88.95(2.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	4	-10000	4	2	36.96	77%	0.16	0	1.14%	0	115.5	50	0
13	Apr_11_2003	87.56	89.24	87.71	87.59			87.15(-0.41%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-4	-10000	-5	-2	47.74	65%	-0.06	0	1.03%	0	128.2	50	0
14	Apr_10_2003	87.61	89.24	87.71	87.8			87.51(0.55%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-1	-10000	-1	-0	42.13	65%	-0.01	0	1.08%	0	123.3	50	0
15	Apr_9_2003	87.62	89.24	87.71	87.84			87.03(-1.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-4	-10000	-4	-2	55.68	65%	-0.11	0	1.16%	0	116	50	0

16	Apr_8_2003	87.72	89.24	87.71	88.06			88.19(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	9	-10000	10	4	39.74	100%	0.1	0	1.02%	0	114.5	50	0
17	Apr_7_2003	87.63	89.24	87.71	87.63			88.05(-0.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	378	-10000	445	178	69.82	100%	0.13	0	1.13%	0	108.7	50	0
18	Apr_4_2003	87.52	89.24	87.71	70.02			88.22(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	20.7	478	-10000	562	225	36.26	100%	0.26	0	1.2%	0	100.3	50	0
19	Apr_3_2003	87.29	89.24	87.71	52.37			87.7(-0.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	39.3	591	-10000	695	278	49.01	100%	0.24	0	1.45%	0	97.4	50	0
20	Apr_2_2003	87.08	89.24	87.71	34.83			88.12(2.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	51.2	0	-10000	0	0	50.5	100%	1.21	0	0%	0	84.7	50	0

21	Apr_1_2003	86.04	89.24	87.71	17.21			86.04(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	0	-10000	0	0	53.82	0%		0	0%	0	0	50	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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