Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Aug. 9, 2017

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $83.9377 (-0.2%) ($83.1348 - $83.9474) on Wed. Aug. 9, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.16% (three month average)
RSI   40
Latest Price   $83.9377(-0.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.58% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-15%)    VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-10%)    IGOV(-4%)    IPO(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.58% (StdDev 1.16%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $83.59(0.42%)
10 Day Moving Average   $83.49(0.54%)
20 Day Moving Average   $83.87(0.08%)
To recent high   -2.6%
To recent low   7.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 0.85% (three month std-dev: 1.16%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170909

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_9_2017	80.45	83.87	83.49	83.59			83.94(-0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-4	-10000	4	-27	3.53	59%	0.1	71.8	1.16%	0	0.1	40	0
2	Aug_8_2017	80.37	83.83	83.57	83.39			84.1(-0.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-7	-10000	3	-35	5.09	59%	0.1	75.5	1.17%	0	0.3	43	0
3	Aug_7_2017	80.29	83.73	83.56	83.25			84.35(1.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-5	-10000	6	-39	3.02	59%	0.1	78.3	1.17%	0	0.6	51	0
4	Aug_4_2017	80.21	83.59	83.54	82.98			82.89(0.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-15	-10000	-3	-50	3.4	57%	0.09	68.1	1.15%	0	-0.6	45	0
5	Aug_3_2017	80.14	83.49	83.71	83.11			82.65(-0.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-15	-10000	-5	-44	2.97	57%	0.07	61.4	1.15%	0	-0.6	42	0

6	Aug_2_2017	80.08	83.36	83.96	83.37			82.94(-0.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-13	-10000	-9	-26	3.98	57%	0.1	54.4	1.15%	0	-0.3	53	0
7	Aug_1_2017	80	83.22	84.16	83.78			83.4(0.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-2	-10000	-3	1	2.19	58%	0.1	59.6	1.15%	0	0.1	54	0
8	Jul_31_2017	79.92	82.99	84.24	83.92			83.04(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	1	-10000	-5	17	3.53	58%	0.09	42.8	1.16%	0	0	60	0
9	Jul_28_2017	79.85	82.81	84.33	84.18			83.53(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	7	-10000	-4	40	3.63	55%	0.13	35.5	1.16%	0	0.3	67	0
10	Jul_27_2017	79.75	82.62	84.39	84.4			83.93(-1.26%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	13	-10000	-5	67	6.37	57%	0.11	30.9	1.18%	0	0.6	74	0

11	Jul_26_2017	79.66	82.49	84.31	84.63			85(1.06%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	25	-10000	0	99	2.02	58%	0.14	31.3	1.17%	0	1.1	85	0
12	Jul_25_2017	79.55	82.25	84.13	84.63			84.11(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	30	-10000	0	121	3.21	59%	0.13	28.8	1.17%	0	0.9	79	0
13	Jul_24_2017	79.45	82.16	83.94	84.61			84.34(-0.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	38	-10000	2	145	2.67	60%	0.13	29.1	1.18%	0	1	85	0
14	Jul_21_2017	79.35	82.07	83.65	84.49			84.61(-0.56%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	41	-10000	3	155	3.14	60%	0.13	31.7	1.19%	0	1.2	78	0
15	Jul_20_2017	79.25	81.94	83.26	84.36			85.09(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	47	-10000	8	163	2.73	62%	0.14	33.9	1.19%	0	1.6	77	0

16	Jul_19_2017	79.14	81.8	82.71	83.94			84.91(0.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	40	-10000	7	140	3.01	62%	0.14	31.4	1.2%	0	1.7	63	0
17	Jul_18_2017	79.03	81.63	82.19	83.59			84.07(0.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	39	-10000	8	130	3.91	62%	0.13	25.8	1.19%	0	1.4	65	0
18	Jul_17_2017	78.93	81.55	81.63	83.17			83.75(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	31	-10000	10	94	1.72	63%	0.13	20.9	1.19%	0	1.3	52	0
19	Jul_14_2017	78.83	81.42	81.17	82.68			83.99(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	25	-10000	14	59	2.34	63%	0.13	9.5	1.2%	0	1.7	51	0
20	Jul_13_2017	78.73	81.28	80.7	81.98			82.96(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	15	-10000	14	19	3	61%	0.1	-18.1	1.2%	0	1.2	50	0

21	Jul_12_2017	78.65	81.22	80.5	81.28			83.15(1.44%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	7	-10000	14	-13	3.15	60%	0.1	-41.9	1.2%	0	1.4	49	0
22	Jul_11_2017	78.57	81.19	80.18	80.6			81.97(0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	-0	-10000	15	-46	2.92	58%	0.04	-60.2	1.21%	0	0.6	50	0
23	Jul_10_2017	78.54	81.2	80.19	79.86			81.33(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-12	-10000	9	-76	3.39	57%	0.09	-80.8	1.21%	0	0.1	43	0
24	Jul_7_2017	78.47	81.27	80.31	79.43			80.49(1.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-19	-10000	4	-86	3.42	57%	0.09	-90.4	1.21%	0	-0.5	47	0
25	Jul_6_2017	78.4	81.54	80.49	79.24			79.43(-0.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-30	-10000	-8	-94	2.72	56%		-70.5	1.2%	0	-1.2	43	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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