Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SMH: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Fri. Jul. 14, 2017

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Tue. May. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $83.9861 (1.24%) ($83.2606 - $84.1070) on Fri. Jul. 14, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.2% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $83.9861(1.24%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IWF(73%)    IVW(72%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.6% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-15%)    VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-10%)    IGOV(-4%)    IPO(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.6% (StdDev 1.2%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $82.68(1.58%)
10 Day Moving Average   $81.17(3.47%)
20 Day Moving Average   $81.42(3.15%)
To recent high   -2.5%
To recent low   12.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.9% (three month std-dev: 1.2%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170814

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_14_2017	78.83	81.42	81.17	82.68			83.99(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	25	-10000	14	59	2.34	63%	0.13	9.5	1.2%	0	1.7	51	0
2	Jul_13_2017	78.73	81.28	80.7	81.98			82.96(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	15	-10000	14	19	3	61%	0.1	-18.1	1.2%	0	1.2	50	0
3	Jul_12_2017	78.65	81.22	80.5	81.28			83.15(1.44%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	7	-10000	14	-13	3.15	60%	0.1	-41.9	1.2%	0	1.4	49	0
4	Jul_11_2017	78.57	81.19	80.18	80.6			81.97(0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	-0	-10000	15	-46	2.92	58%	0.04	-60.2	1.21%	0	0.6	50	0
5	Jul_10_2017	78.54	81.2	80.19	79.86			81.33(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-12	-10000	9	-76	3.39	57%	0.09	-80.8	1.21%	0	0.1	43	0

6	Jul_7_2017	78.47	81.27	80.31	79.43			80.49(1.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-19	-10000	4	-86	3.42	57%	0.09	-90.4	1.21%	0	-0.5	47	0
7	Jul_6_2017	78.4	81.54	80.49	79.24			79.43(-0.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-30	-10000	-8	-94	2.72	56%	0.06	-70.5	1.2%	0	-1.2	43	0
8	Jul_5_2017	78.35	81.81	80.81	79.62			79.77(1.9%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-21	-10000	-2	-77	6.45	56%	0.15	-58.7	1.2%	0	-1.1	41	0
9	Jul_3_2017	78.23	82.04	81.02	79.71			78.28(-1.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-36	-10000	-18	-90	3.25	53%	0.06	-54.6	1.17%	0	-2	32	0
10	Jun_30_2017	78.18	82.35	81.49	80.56			79.19(-0.43%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-27	-10000	-16	-59	5.23	53%	0.09	-43.3	1.15%	0	-1.9	38	0

11	Jun_29_2017	78.11	82.6	81.75	81.3			79.53(-2.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-20	-10000	-13	-41	7.7	53%	0.08	-31.3	1.15%	0	-2	37	0
12	Jun_28_2017	78.05	82.81	81.97	81.9			81.35(1.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-16	-10000	-6	-46	3.94	57%	0.1	-18.9	1.12%	0	-1.1	32	0
13	Jun_27_2017	77.97	82.9	82.06	82.18			80.19(-2.86%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-19	-10000	-7	-54	7.6	55%	0.09	-7.8	1.1%	0	-2.1	33	0
14	Jun_26_2017	77.9	83.07	82.35	82.5			82.55(-0.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-14	-10000	-1	-53	5.38	60%	0.13	4.3	1.04%	0	-0.5	42	0
15	Jun_23_2017	77.8	83.08	82.33	82.56			82.87(0.41%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-10	-10000	7	-60	2.07	60%	0.13	13.1	1.04%	0	-0.2	44	0

16	Jun_22_2017	77.7	83.07	82.32	82.27			82.54(-0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-16	-10000	5	-80	2.25	61%	0.13	15.2	1.04%	0	-0.5	44	0
17	Jun_21_2017	77.6	83.05	82.64	82.05			82.75(1.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-17	-10000	2	-73	3.21	58%	0.14	22	1.05%	0	-0.3	48	0
18	Jun_20_2017	77.49	83.01	82.84	81.94			81.81(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-21	-10000	-5	-69	2.64	56%	0.12	17.1	1.07%	0	-1	45	0
19	Jun_19_2017	77.4	83.02	83.1	82.17			82.84(1.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-12	-10000	2	-53	2.69	58%	0.13	25.3	1.06%	0	-0.1	49	0
20	Jun_16_2017	77.3	82.94	83.23	82.07			81.4(-0.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-18	-10000	-7	-52	3.71	56%	0.12	25.6	1.04%	0	-1.2	46	0

21	Jun_15_2017	77.21	82.9	83.5	82.37			81.45(-0.92%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-26	-10000	-22	-39	4.2	57%	0.1	30.4	1.04%	0	-1	47	0
22	Jun_14_2017	77.13	82.9	83.72	83.31			82.21(-0.86%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-8	-10000	-13	9	3.17	57%	0.14	41.2	1.03%	0	-0.4	54	0
23	Jun_13_2017	77.02	82.8	83.84	83.88			82.92(0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	6	-10000	-7	44	3.48	57%	0.16	60.2	1.03%	0	0.1	61	0
24	Jun_12_2017	76.9	82.71	83.89	84.17			82.39(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	10	-10000	-9	65	8.34	57%	0.14	73.1	1.03%	0	-0.2	57	0
25	Jun_9_2017	76.79	82.61	83.95	84.54			82.89(-3.78%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	20	-10000	-5	94	8.93	58%		81.5	1.03%	0	0.2	65	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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