Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jan. 25, 2017

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $73.0066 (1.23%) ($72.4262 - $73.0550) on Wed. Jan. 25, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.24% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $73.0066(1.23%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.62% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    UUP(-14%)    TLT(-10%)    IGOV(-4%)    SHY(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.62% (StdDev 1.24%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $71.58(1.99%)
10 Day Moving Average   $71.11(2.67%)
20 Day Moving Average   $70.57(3.45%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   14.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.36% (three month std-dev: 1.24%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170225

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_25_2017	67.05	70.57	71.11	71.58			73.01(1.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	22	-10000	8	62	2.74	64%	0.13	37.5	1.24%	0	2.5	65	0
2	Jan_24_2017	66.96	70.44	70.86	71.22			72.12(1.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	22	-10000	10	59	4.12	65%	0.09	43.2	1.23%	0	2.2	64	0
3	Jan_23_2017	66.9	70.35	70.67	70.8			70.73(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	12	-10000	-0	46	1.66	63%	0.1	33.7	1.22%	0	0.6	59	0
4	Jan_20_2017	66.83	70.31	70.57	70.82			71.36(0.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	17	-10000	7	47	2.72	63%	0.1	41.8	1.21%	0	1.5	56	0
5	Jan_19_2017	66.76	70.25	70.36	70.5			70.68(-0.76%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	6	-10000	-1	27	1.07	61%	0.12	35.2	1.21%	0	0.7	53	0

6	Jan_18_2017	66.68	70.21	70.26	70.56			71.23(1.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	8	-10000	3	21	2	62%	0.12	48.9	1.21%	0	1.6	47	0
7	Jan_17_2017	66.6	70.21	70.07	70.45			69.99(-1.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	0	-10000	-2	6	1.57	60%	0.15	51.8	1.2%	0	-0.2	45	0
8	Jan_13_2017	66.5	70.11	70.01	70.53			70.82(1.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	6	-10000	6	5	1.13	58%	0.11	60.9	1.19%	0	1.2	52	0
9	Jan_12_2017	66.43	70.11	69.94	70.28			69.79(-1.66%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	1	-10000	3	-5	3.92	56%	0.12	53.6	1.18%	0	-0.4	49	0
10	Jan_11_2017	66.35	70.02	69.98	70.17			70.97(0.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	2	-10000	6	-9	2.21	56%	0.11	62.2	1.16%	0	1.5	56	0

11	Jan_10_2017	66.28	69.9	69.99	69.91			70.67(0.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	2	-10000	6	-11	1.77	56%	0.12	67.4	1.19%	0	1.3	55	0
12	Jan_9_2017	66.2	69.81	69.99	69.66			70.39(1.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	1	-10000	5	-11	2.35	56%	0.12	70.5	1.2%	0	0.9	61	0
13	Jan_6_2017	66.12	69.75	69.98	69.44			69.59(0.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-8	-10000	-3	-21	2.59	56%	0.11	88.7	1.19%	0	-0.2	47	0
14	Jan_5_2017	66.05	69.71	70.03	69.56			69.23(-0.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-6	-10000	-4	-10	1.51	56%	0.11	96	1.19%	0	-0.7	54	0
15	Jan_4_2017	65.98	69.63	70.13	69.74			69.64(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-7	-10000	-8	-2	1.94	56%	0.11	95.1	1.19%	0	0	50	0

16	Jan_3_2017	65.91	69.5	70.13	70.09			69.42(0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	1	-10000	-6	23	2.87	56%	0.17	78.9	1.19%	0	-0.1	58	0
17	Dec_30_2016	65.8	69.35	70.17	70.35			69.3(-1.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	5	-10000	-6	37	1.52	58%	0.11	49.5	1.19%	0	-0	55	0
18	Dec_29_2016	65.73	69.15	70.25	70.58			70.19(0.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.2	15	-10000	1	56	1.27	61%	0.14	34.6	1.2%	0	0.6	57	0
19	Dec_28_2016	65.64	69.05	70.15	70.58			70.17(-1.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	15	-10000	0	58	1.93	61%	0.12	33	1.2%	0	0.7	59	0
20	Dec_27_2016	65.56	68.95	70.1	70.55			71.35(0.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	24	-10000	6	77	1.28	66%	0.21	35.1	1.18%	0	1.5	73	0

21	Dec_23_2016	65.42	68.81	69.82	70.28			70.75(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	26	-10000	8	81	0.52	66%	0.15	37	1.19%	0	1.3	74	0
22	Dec_22_2016	65.32	68.7	69.62	69.96			70.42(0.51%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	23	-10000	2	85	0.76	66%	0.15	38	1.2%	0	1.2	76	0
23	Dec_21_2016	65.22	68.6	69.49	69.89			70.07(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	32	-10000	5	114	2.03	66%	0.15	44.7	1.2%	0	1.1	78	0
24	Dec_20_2016	65.12	68.52	69.35	69.67			70.13(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	29	-10000	2	109	1.17	66%	0.14	51.1	1.21%	0	1.2	57	0
25	Dec_19_2016	65.03	68.4	69.09	69.59			70.03(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	31	-10000	7	103	1.72	66%		62.3	1.21%	0	1.3	55	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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