Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Sep. 6, 2016

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $64.0552 (-0.01%) ($63.7098 - $64.3719) on Tue. Sep. 6, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.34% (three month average)
RSI   75
Latest Price   $64.0552(-0.01%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.67% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-13%)    TLT(-9%)    IPO(-8%)    IBUY(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.67% (StdDev 1.34%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $63.86(0.31%)
10 Day Moving Average   $63.61(0.7%)
20 Day Moving Average   $63.05(1.59%)
To recent high   -0.1%
To recent low   24.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.17% (three month std-dev: 1.34%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20161006

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_6_2016	56.33	63.05	63.61	63.86			64.06(-0.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	12	-10000	2	40	2.2	63%	0.28	97.4	1.34%	0	1.4	75	0
2	Sep_2_2016	56.17	62.93	63.52	63.78			64.06(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	12	-10000	3	40	2.21	63%	0.2	91.3	1.33%	0	1.4	66	0
3	Sep_1_2016	56.06	62.8	63.42	63.65			64.12(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	15	-10000	5	44	1.81	63%	0.2	86.6	1.33%	0	1.6	73	0
4	Aug_31_2016	55.95	62.64	63.28	63.46			63.54(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	13	-10000	3	42	1.03	63%	0.2	73.6	1.33%	0	1	72	0
5	Aug_30_2016	55.84	62.5	63.17	63.34			63.54(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	11	-10000	0	42	1.46	63%	0.2	61.1	1.33%	0	1.1	74	0

6	Aug_29_2016	55.73	62.34	63.06	63.32			63.64(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	13	-10000	2	45	1.08	63%	0.22	56.4	1.34%	0	1.3	68	0
7	Aug_26_2016	55.61	62.21	62.97	63.22			63.42(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	13	-10000	1	50	2.24	63%	0.2	61.7	1.34%	0	1.3	70	0
8	Aug_25_2016	55.5	62.09	62.84	63.16			63.15(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	15	-10000	2	52	1.6	63%	0.2	69.3	1.34%	0	1.1	68	0
9	Aug_24_2016	55.39	61.98	62.72	63.08			62.94(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	17	-10000	3	57	1.97	65%	0.2	80.7	1.34%	0	1.1	73	0
10	Aug_23_2016	55.28	61.9	62.59	62.96			63.44(0.49%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	19	-10000	5	61	1.71	65%	0.18	88.7	1.36%	0	1.8	81	0

11	Aug_22_2016	55.18	61.79	62.44	62.76			63.13(0.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	18	-10000	2	64	0.94	65%	0.2	94.5	1.36%	0	1.5	81	0
12	Aug_19_2016	55.07	61.63	62.29	62.69			63.11(0.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	20	-10000	5	65	0.99	68%	0.18	92.2	1.41%	0	1.6	67	0
13	Aug_18_2016	54.97	61.45	62.13	62.49			62.79(0.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	19	-10000	4	62	1.33	70%	0.18	92.6	1.41%	0	1.3	67	0
14	Aug_17_2016	54.87	61.27	61.95	62.3			62.31(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	16	-10000	3	54	2.08	70%	0.16	96.3	1.42%	0	1	60	0
15	Aug_16_2016	54.78	61.14	61.77	62.16			62.44(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	13	-10000	2	44	0.77	71%	0.2	97.2	1.43%	0	1.2	61	0

16	Aug_15_2016	54.67	60.95	61.57	62.07			62.81(1.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	13	-10000	5	35	1.75	71%	0.15	100.5	1.44%	0	1.7	61	0
17	Aug_12_2016	54.59	60.76	61.38	61.83			62.11(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	10	-10000	2	34	1.33	68%	0.2	94.7	1.44%	0	1.1	70	0
18	Aug_11_2016	54.48	60.53	61.26	61.73			61.85(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	13	-10000	4	40	0.61	68%	0.18	91.6	1.46%	0	1	71	0
19	Aug_10_2016	54.38	60.32	61.19	61.54			61.6(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	15	-10000	5	46	0.64	68%	0.17	91.9	1.47%	0	0.9	72	0
20	Aug_9_2016	54.29	60.1	61.15	61.31			62.01(0.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	19	-10000	8	50	1.98	68%	0.17	92.8	1.46%	0	1.2	69	0

21	Aug_8_2016	54.2	59.85	61.08	60.97			61.6(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	15	-10000	2	53	0.77	68%	0.18	92.9	1.46%	0	1	72	0
22	Aug_5_2016	54.1	59.59	60.9	60.87			61.6(1.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	16	-10000	3	55	0.93	68%	0.17	90.8	1.46%	0	1.1	70	0
23	Aug_4_2016	54.01	59.3	60.7	60.74			60.89(0.71%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	15	-10000	-1	64	1.52	68%	0.19	81.3	1.46%	0	0.8	75	0
24	Aug_3_2016	53.91	58.98	60.53	60.8			60.46(0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	16	-10000	-4	77	1.28	68%	0.17	74.7	1.47%	0	0.6	72	0
25	Aug_2_2016	53.82	58.65	60.46	60.96			60.3(-1.32%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	22	-10000	-5	101	5.59	68%		72.8	1.48%	0	0.7	74	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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